Vallags-ympning

[Thande]

Very good work Max.

I do have a spreadsheet of 2017, but it's elsewhere, I can get it to you at the weekend if you want.

I like the inevitable return of the former London County Council area.

Remind me what the white outlined little mans signifies?

 

[Ares96]

Remind me what the white outlined little mans signifies?

Levelling seats. Might add a note on that to the key.

 

[Thande]

Levelling seats. Might add a note on that to the key.

I thought so, but wasn't entirely sure.

 

[Walpurgisnacht]

And the whole thing.

Very nice!

What are the numbers of seats by party? It looks as though the Tories can form a majority government, but I'm not sure.

 

[Ares96]

Very nice!

What are the numbers of seats by party? It looks as though the Tories can form a majority government, but I'm not sure.

Con 252 (-79 from OTL)
Lab 207 (-25)
UKIP 86 (+85)
LD 54 (+46)
SNP 33 (-23)
DUP 5 (-3)
SF 5 (+1)
UUP 3 (+1)
SDLP 3 (+-0)
PC 2 (-1)

So Con+UKIP would be a comfortable majority, but not Con alone. Con+UKIP is also about the only working coalition you could cobble together from this. I think a path to Brexit is very, very possible to imagine in this scenario as well.

 

[Ares96]

Alright, the 2017 electorate calculations are done.

UNITED KINGDOM
600 fixed seats to assign

England 38386864 - 503 (+1)
Wales 2243919 - 29 (-1)
Scotland 3929963 - 52
Northern Ireland 1205683 - 16

ENGLAND
503 fixed seats to assign

Avon 803166 - 11 (+1)
Bedfordshire 448477 - 6
Berkshire 611598 - 8
Buckinghamshire 560970 - 7
Cambridgeshire 571830 - 7 (-1)
Cheshire 801397 - 11 (+1)
Cleveland 405108 - 5
Cornwall 407865 - 5
Cumbria 376963 - 5
Derbyshire 770193 - 10
Devon 876282 - 11
Dorset 574303 - 8
Durham 463487 - 6
Essex 1311362 - 17
Gloucestershire 467951 - 6
Hampshire 1305658 - 17
Herefordshire 135315 - 2
Hertfordshire 823011 - 11
Humberside 676809 - 9
Isle of Wight 108591 - 2
Kent 1271479 - 17 (+1)
Lancashire 1014555 - 13 (-1)
Leicestershire 757525 - 10
Lincolnshire 536375 - 7
London Inner 1851545 - 24
London North 2336163 - 31 (+1)
London South 1080319 - 14 (-1)
Manchester Central 657230 - 9
Manchester East 696030 - 9
Manchester West 562929 - 7 (-1)
Merseyside 934902 - 12 (-1)
Norfolk 660307 - 9
Northamptonshire 510314 - 7 (+1)
Northumberland 235363 - 3
Nottinghamshire 787238 - 10
Oxfordshire 476218 - 6
Shropshire 360058 - 5
Somerset 489138 - 6 (+1)
Staffordshire 747872 - 10 (-1)
Suffolk 545536 - 7
Surrey 836225 - 11
Sussex East 582221 - 8
Sussex West 622745 - 8
Tyne and Wear 868285 - 11
Warwickshire 413640     - 5
West Midlands East 1064289 - 14
West Midlands West 823560 - 11
Wiltshire 508155 - 7
Worcestershire 437046 - 6
North Yorkshire 603043 - 8
South Yorkshire 979258 - 13
West Yorkshire 1572711 - 21 (+1)

SCOTLAND
52 seats to assign

Borders 211842 - 3
Central 401528 - 5
Fife 271484 - 4
Glasgow 438931 - 6
Grampian 415728 - 5 (-1)
Highlands and Isles 230039 - 3
Lothian 727920 - 10 (+2)
Strathclyde East 561233 - 7 (-1)
Strathclyde West 671258 - 9

WALES
29 seats to assign

Clwyd 331862 - 4
Dyfed 279369 - 4
Mid Glamorgan 391912 - 5 (+1)
South Glamorgan 332686 - 4 (-1)
West Glamorgan 276023 - 4
Gwent 349124 - 4 (-1)
Gwynedd 177317 - 2
Powys 105626 - 2

I don't know what happened with Lothian either - at a guess, I counted it wrong for 2015. Not redoing that though, I've saved basically none of the side calculations.

 

[Ares96]

And thanks to @Thande I've now got the results in a workable format, so on with the map!



This is fixed seats only so far, obviously. That said, I think UKIP are genuinely going to lose all their 86 seats - they'd have to break 12% in a single county/region, which feels like a tall order.

 

[Ares96]

I now have the full national result in seats, the map will go up as soon as I've figured out where the levelling seats go.

Conservative and Unionist Party - 289 (-28 from OTL)
Labour and Labour Co-operative - 273 (+11)
Liberal Democrats - 50 (+38)
Scottish National Party - 20 (-15)
Plaid Cymru - 2 (-2)
Democratic Unionist Party - 9 (-1)
Sinn Féin - 7 (+-0)
Others - 0 (-3)

What, you think anyone else in NI made it over 12%?

 

[Ares96]

And the map.

 

[Makemakean]

Dear me, not even with Sainte-Laguë and it being an entire constituency of its own do any other parties than Sinn Féin and the DUP win seats in Northern Ireland.

I would assume though that there probably would be some valtaknisk samverkan between the Lib Dems and the Alliance, and (maybe) Labour and the SDLP, whereby their leaders get spots on their respective national lists.

 

[Walpurgisnacht]

Now that is a well-hung parliament.

Looking at the numbers, Tories+Libby Dees gets you over the line, but given that in the Vallasverse the Tories had just paired up with UKIP, it seems like Coalition 2 Post-Brexit Boogaloo would be untenable, no matter if Farron's views on the gays would fit well into UKIP.

Probably the most likely outcome is a) a Bonfire Coalition of Labour, the Liberals, and the ScotNats, or b) a bunch of bickering trying to set that up which leads to another snap election.

 

[Ares96]

The issue with Northern Ireland is that none of the parties there stand a chance of breaking 4% nationally, so the single Northern Irish constituency has an effective 12% threshold. I can't for the life of me imagine them actually implementing this system that way in real life.

The same thing goes for Plaid, and also the SNP, but it's less of an issue with the SNP because they comfortably clear 12% in every Scottish region, so the only thing to worry about for them is not getting any levelling seats.

 

[OwenM]

The issue with Northern Ireland is that none of the parties there stand a chance of breaking 4% nationally, so the single Northern Irish constituency has an effective 12% threshold. I can't for the life of me imagine them actually implementing this system that way in real life.

The same thing goes for Plaid, and also the SNP, but it's less of an issue with the SNP because they comfortably clear 12% in every Scottish region, so the only thing to worry about for them is not getting any levelling seats.

Would Plaid actually get any more seats without the 12% given the highest number of seats in a Welsh constituency is, er, 5?

 

[Ares96]

Would Plaid actually get any more seats without the 12% given the highest number of seats in a Welsh constituency is, er, 5?

Yes, they'd get the fifth seat in Mid Glamorgan in place of Labour.

 

[Ares96]

Right, a new UK election means a new one of these.

To begin with, the electorate calculation, which was very quick as I could just paste in the fresh OSE spreadsheet over the old one. Not much change, as you'd expect given that only two years have passed - no change between the home nations, or within Scotland or Wales. The only changes happen in the West of England - Avon and Dorset lose a seat each, while Cornwall and Devon each gain one.

As in 2017, the only parties that crossed the 4% threshold were the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats. The SNP came tantalisingly close, but at 3.9%, will have to make do with the fixed seats they are extremely likely to win in every Scottish constituency.

The first calculation on the nationwide level looks as follows:

Conservative 325
Labour 239
Liberal Democrats 86

Now, this is obviously not going to be what the result ends up looking like. For a start, we should deduct the 16 seats given to Northern Ireland here, none of which are likely to go to the big three nationwide parties. That gives us the following breakdown:

Conservative 317
Labour 233
Liberal Democrats 84

In Northern Ireland, meanwhile, both Alliance and SDLP broke 12%, enabling them to get fixed seats in the single NI constituency again (possibly for the first time ever in the Alliance's case). The seat breakdown there looks as follows:

DUP 6 (-3)
SF 4 (-3)
SDLP 3 (+3)
Alliance 3 (+3)

 

[Ares96]

I've finally managed to get going on the map.



Worth noting that the Lib Dems came in second in quite a few Home Counties, but of course that's none too useful under FPTP.

 

[Ares96]

And it's done.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

Do you think it's more likely that leveling wouldn't take place between England & Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland?

 

[Ares96]

Do you think it's more likely that leveling wouldn't take place between England & Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland?

It’d make more sense if either a) the thresholds were applied separately for each constituent country, or b) there was no 12% threshold at the constituency level, just whatever it takes to win a constituency seat (which is how it works in Norway).

 

[Nanwe]

That is one very blue map. What are those little green men in Yorkshire?

As a suggestion, in order to make things more British, you could have Northern Ireland exempted from that threshold but the rest of the UK being subject to a Great Britain-wide threshold requirement that the SNP rallies against because nationalism.

I wonder if the common threshold wouldn’t force the merger of the English and Scottish green parties.