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Vallags-ympning

Ares96

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Published by SLP
#1
This is a project that doesn't really have a natural forum to go in, so I decided to follow @Brainbin's lead from the Imperial Parliament project and put it here. I also want it to have its own thread so it doesn't come amidst the "random thing I found and decided I had to map"-posts in my regular thread.

In brief, this thread is where I adapt foreign countries to the Swedish electoral law. Psephological cultural imperialism, if you would.

I'm starting with Canada, which just had an election that showcased some of the commonly-stated pitfalls of FPTP - the Liberal Party won a strong minority government with just 33% of the vote, while the Tories got 34.5% and barely improved on their 2015 result, and the Greens got nearly nothing on 6.5% while the Bloc came in a strong third with about the same voteshare. Would any of this change under PR as used in a real country?

(I mean, the answer is obviously yes, but)

Canada is also quite a practical country to adapt to this system, because its parliament is very similar in size to the Swedish one. As such, I see no real need to alter the seat allocations in the electoral law - 310 fixed constituency seats and 39 supplementary levelling seats will quite handily do. Canada also has the same thing where it has one small island that needs to have constituency status despite being a bit too small, and it will be slightly overrepresented in my calculations - but not by as much as it is IOTL. I'm ignoring the "senatorial clause" completely here, because all the Maritimes fuck up the count if I don't. Yeah, this would likely be different in a real scenario, please don't @ me.

One thing Sweden has that Canada most assuredly does not have is roughly equally sized subdivisions that can handily work as electoral divisions. The Canadian provinces are hugely unequal in size, but as a minor sop to Canadian federalism I will be calculating seat allocation by province/territory first and then by division in those provinces that need subdividing. So, without further ado:

Code:
Canada

310 fixed seats to assign
Population: 35,151,725
Hare quota: 113,393

1st distribution

Newfoundland and Labrador: 4
P.E.I.: 2
Nova Scotia: 8
New Brunswick: 6
Quebec: 72
Ontario: 118
Manitoba: 11
Saskatchewan: 9
Alberta: 35
British Columbia: 40
Yukon: 1
Northwest Territories: 1
Nunavut: 1
Total: 308

2nd distribution

Newfoundland and Labrador: 4
P.E.I.: 2
Nova Scotia: 8
New Brunswick: 6
Quebec: 72
Ontario: 118
Manitoba: 11
Saskatchewan: 9
Alberta: 36 (+1)
British Columbia: 40 (+1)
Yukon: 1
Northwest Territories: 1
Nunavut: 1
Total: 310
So the only provinces that need to be divided here are Ontario, Quebec, Alberta and BC. And in a "proper" Swedish scenario where this electoral law has been mostly unchanged for decades, I could definitely see those just being massive single constituencies - Alberta particularly so, BC might just have the city of Vancouver split off. Nevertheless, I'm going to endeavour to divide them as naturally as I can into areas with roughly ten seats apiece. To give a sample of this, BC divides quite neatly (with one major exception) into four regions:

1. Vancouver, consisting of the cities of Vancouver, Burnaby, New Westminster and North Vancouver, plus the district of North Vancouver and the electoral areas and First Nations reserves included within the two North Vancouver ridings. Population: 1,213,284, 10 MPs.
2. Lower Fraser, consisting of the remainder of the Metro Vancouver regional municipality (except West Vancouver - see next entry) as well as the hinterlands included in the Coquitlam--Port Coquitlam, Langley--Aldergrove and Pitt Meadows--Maple Ridge ridings. Population: 1,327,310, 12 MPs.
3. Vancouver Island--Sunshine Coast, consisting of Vancouver Island, the mainland parts of the North Island--Powell River riding and the West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country riding in its entirety. In an ideal world, the latter would be split between the Vancouver and Vancouver Island regions, but this is not an ideal world and the prospect of trawling through the nether works of Elections Canada for poll-level results does not appeal, so it goes with the side that would be smaller without it. Population: 915,294, 8 MPs.
4. Interior British Columbia, consisting of the remainder of the province. Population: 1,311,280, 11 MPs.

PR-ca-bc.png
 
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Ares96

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Published by SLP
#3
When considering Canada under PR I tend to end up lumping the territories together, which may not be acceptable to the people living there.
Well, they'd still only end up with one MP between them, which I find a bit silly. Consider it equivalent to giving PEI a second MP (yes, they only deserve one according to population) in terms of overrepresentation.
 

OwenM

Your guess is as good as mine.
#4
Well, they'd still only end up with one MP between them, which I find a bit silly. Consider it equivalent to giving PEI a second MP (yes, they only deserve one according to population) in terms of overrepresentation.
Yeah, I'm usually doing it with MMP and assuming a regional rather than national top-up. This would of course actually increase overrepresentation.
 

Ares96

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Published by SLP
#7
Oh, bless you. As a Vancouverite I must say - it's so weird to realize anyone's taken notice of us.

And it's so weird to see someone outside Canada take our electoral district names seriously.
Engaging with them =/= taking them seriously. The urge to change "Interior BC" to "Okanagan--Boundary--Kootenay--Fraser Valley--Kamloops--Cariboo--Skeena--Prince Rupert--Prince George--Peace River--Stikine" was not insignificant.
 

Ares96

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Published by SLP
#9
Alberta, too, is easily divided. Calgary has ten ridings, all beginning with the city name, Edmonton has eight ridings covering the city proper, and the rest of the province can be one slightly unwieldy but not unrealistically so region. Viz:

pr-ca-ab.png

1. Edmonton, covering all the ridings with "Edmonton" in their name, as well as Sherwood Park--Fort Saskatchewan which is clearly a peripheral Edmonton seat. Population: 1,212,890, 11 MPs.
2. Calgary, covering all the ridings with "Calgary" in their name (boundaries also exactly coincide with those of the city of Calgary). Population: 1,239,220, 11 MPs.
3. (Rural) Alberta, covering the remainder of the province. Population: 1,615,065, 14 MPs.

Rural Alberta's a bit big, yes, but I don't think there's a good way to divide it into anything like equal parts. Ontario and Quebec have tended to divide mostly into 5-10 member regions, so it's possible I may have to split it in the end. Currently it's the joint-biggest one in Canada, with the Island of Montreal also electing 17 members.

EDIT: Moved over two peripheral Edmonton seats from Rural to Edmonton. This won't be reflected on the map because, well, I didn't save it as a PDN and can't be arsed to redo it.
 
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Ares96

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Published by SLP
#11
Ontario, the most populous province, gets divided into no less than fourteen regions - from a historical perspective, two of them should probably be one, but I've already tossed that perspective out the window, so there you are, I can freely split Toronto in half instead of having one 24-member region.

PR-ca-on.png

1. Toronto Inner, consisting of Toronto between the Humber River, Highway 401 and Victoria Park Avenue. Population: 1,293,311, 11 MPs.
2. Toronto Outer (or York South if you want a legacy name), consisting of the rest of Toronto. Population: 1,438,260, 13 MPs.
3. York (North), consisting of York Region plus Bradford-West Gwillimbury in Simcoe County (which would probably be in region 9 if it weren't for those pesky riding boundaries). Population: 1,145,234, 10 MPs.
4. Peel, consisting of the cities of Mississauga and Brampton. Population: 1,315,237, 12 MPs.
5. Hamilton--Halton (Wentworth--Halton), consisting of the city of Hamilton as well as Halton Region except for Halton Hills. Population: 1,024,191, 9 MPs.
6. Waterloo--Wellington, consisting of Waterloo Region plus the City of Guelph, Halton Hills, the parts of Wellington County included in the Wellington--Halton Hills riding, and the parts of Brant County included in the Cambridge riding. Population: 789,648, 7 MPs.
7. Niagara--Grand, consisting of Niagara Region, Haldimand, Norfolk and Oxford counties, plus Brantford and all of Brant County except the parts included in region 6. Population: 801,626, 7 MPs.
8. Ontario West, covering Essex, Kent, Elgin, Middlesex and Lambton counties. If it weren't for those pesky riding boundaries, this would probably have been two regions, one based around London and one based around Windsor and Sarnia, with Oxford County being attached to London. Population: 1,172,137, 10 MPs.
9. Huron--Simcoe, covering Bruce, Dufferin, Grey, Huron, Perth counties, those parts of Simcoe not included in region 3, those parts of Wellington not included in region 6, and Caledon in Peel Region. Population: 901,744, 8 MPs.
10. Durham--Peterborough, covering Durham Region, Northumberland, Peterborough and Haliburton counties, and Kawartha Lakes. Population: 963,181, 9 MPs.
11. Ontario East, covering points east (too many long county names to list) except most of the city of Ottawa (except the areas included in the Glengarry--Prescott--Russell riding). Population: 840,574, 7 MPs.
12. Ottawa, covering the city of Ottawa except the areas included in the Glengarry--Prescott--Russell riding. Population: 923,710, 8 MPs.
13. Ontario Northeast (if you want a proper Canadian riding name, then Sudbury--Nipissing--Timiskaming), covering the ridings of Nickel Belt, Nipissing--Timiskaming, Parry Sound--Muskoka, Sudbury, and Timmins--James Bay. Population: 451,772, 4 MPs.
14. Ontario Northwest (or again, Algoma--Thunder Bay--Kenora), covering the ridings of Algoma--Manitoulin--Kapuskasing, Kenora, Sault Ste. Marie and the two Thunder Bay ridings. Population: 387,866, 3 MPs.
 

Ares96

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Published by SLP
#12
And finally, Quebec on a slightly different map, because I can't find any good federal riding maps covering the entire south of the province. Region names will be the French versions, with English ones in parentheses where applicable.

PR-ca-qc.png

1. Île de Montréal (Island of Montreal), covering the urban agglomeration of Montreal (i.e. the Island plus the smaller surrounding islands). Population: 1,942,044, 17 MPs. Largest electoral region in Canada.
2. Laval--Rive-Nord (Laval--North Shore), covering Laval plus the mainland RCMs of Deux-Montagnes, Thérèse-De Blainville, L'Assomption, La-Rivière-du-Nord and Montcalm, and the TEs of Mirabel, Les Moulins and Terrebonne. Population: 1,192,609, 11 MPs.
3. Montérégie, covering the region of Montérégie except those parts included in the federal ridings of Bécancour--Nicolet--Saurel, Brome--Missisquoi, Saint-Hyacinthe--Bagot and Shefford. Population: 1,184,435, 10 MPs.
4. Outaouais--Abitibi-Témiscamingue--Ungava, covering the regions of Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Nord-du-Québec, Outaouais, and the Laurentides except those parts included in region 2. Population: 729,288, 6 MPs.
5. Mauricie--Jacques-Cartier, covering the Lanaudière, Mauricie and Capitale-Nationale regions except those parts of the urban agglomeration of Quebec City included in region 6. Population: 634,273, 6 MPs.
6. Ville de Québec (Québec City), consisting of the city of Québec with its enclave municipalities, except those parts included in the federal riding of Beauport--Côte-de-Beaupré--Île-d'Orléans--Charlevoix (suffice it to say there are reasons I don't just list the ridings included in each region, I'd be here all night just typing them out). Population: 521,010, 5 MPs.
7. Estrie--Bois-Francs, covering the regions of Centre-du-Québec and Estrie as well as the parts of Montérégie not included in region 3 and the RCM of Les Appalaches. Population: 926,384, 8 MPs.
8. Lévis--Chaudière--Bas-Saint-Laurent, covering everything south of the St. Lawrence and east of region 7. Population: 665,432, 6 MPs.
9. Saguenay--Manicouagan, covering the regions of Saguenay--Lac-Saint-Jean and Côte-Nord. Population: 368,886, 3 MPs.
 
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Ares96

Trenger til kakaolikør
Published by SLP
#14
Okay, so I've been looking over the results documents, and not all ridings have declared results yet, but all of the ones in Canada's smallest province do, so here goes.

Code:
PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
2 seats to assign

Liberal 37300
Conservative 23321
Green 13209
NDP 11052
Christian Heritage Party 412 (did not meet 4% national threshold - eliminated)

First quota: 1.2 divisor

Liberal 31083.33
Conservative 19434.17
Green 11007.5
NDP 9210

Seat 1 awarded to Liberals - new divisor 3

Liberal 12433.3
Conservative 19434.17
Green 11007.5
NDP 9210

Seat 2 awarded to Conservatives

Total seats: 1 Liberal, 1 Conservative
...yeah, that was never going to go any other way, was it?

If we assume the two highest vote-getters in their individual ridings also top their party lists, PEI's two seats are filled by Liberal Lawrence MacAulay (Cardigan) and Conservative Logan McLellan (Egmont).
 

Ares96

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Published by SLP
#15
And one more for good measure, to give me an idea of how long these posts would end up being if I wrote out the full operation for all of them.

Code:
NEW BRUNSWICK
6 seats to assign

Liberal 164970
Conservative 144229
Green 75738
NDP 41212
PPC 8926 (did not meet 4% national threshold - eliminated)
Other 4735 (did not meet 4% national threshold - eliminated)

First quota - 1.2 divisor

Liberal 137475
Conservative 120190.8
Green 63115
NDP 34343.33

Seat 1 awarded to Liberals - new divisor 3

Liberal 54990
Conservative 120190.8
Green 63115
NDP 34343.33

Seat 2 awarded to Conservatives - new divisor 3

Liberal 54990
Conservative 48076.33
Green 63115
NDP 34343.33

Seat 3 awarded to Greens - new divisor 3

Liberal 54990
Conservative 48076.33
Green 25246
NDP 34343.33

Seat 4 awarded to Liberals - new divisor 5

Liberal 32994
Conservative 48076.33
Green 25246
NDP 34343.33

Seat 5 awarded to Conservatives - new divisor 5

Liberal 32994
Conservative 28845.8
Green 25246
NDP 34343.33

Seat 6 awarded to NDP

Total seats: 2 Liberals, 2 Conservatives, 1 Green, 1 NDP
The NDP just barely squeak in - if this had been using d'Hondt modifiers (i.e. dividing by every integer instead of just odd numbers), I imagine the Liberals would've been able to take that final seat.

Nova Scotia is only one seat down, too.