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US Democratic Party Enters Terminal Decline Post-ACW

RyanF

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The period from the end of the American Civil War through to the early decades of the twentieth century saw a period of dominance by the Republican Party. In the years from 1860 to 1932, the Democrats only won (per the electoral college anyway) the presidency a grand total of four times (twice with Grover Cleveland in 1884 and 1892; twice with Woodrow Wilson in 1912 and 1916) during those seventy-two years (1864 a bit of a grey area with the National Union ticket). They were a bit more successful with the House of Representatives winning majorities in fifteen of the thirty-six Congresses elected during that period, although they only held a majority in the Senate for five of those.

Could it have been worse for them? Could they have entered a terminal decline where they would eventually be nothing more than a Southern regional party before perhaps fading from existence together?

The South made up the core of the Party support during this period, as well as before and for sometime after. In the North they found support from more recent immigrants and Catholics. What are the possibilities for the Party declining further?


They actually won the popular vote in the presidential election of 1876, Democratic candidate Samuel J. Tilden had more votes than Republican Rutherford B. Hayes, but with results disputed in many states a compromise was struck where the Southern Democrats acquiesced to Hayes election in exchange for an end to Reconstruction. Four years earlier the Democrats hadn't even stood a candidate, and in 1872 sitting Republican President Ulysses S. Grant was challenged by a Liberal Republican opposition gathered around Horace Greeley, who lost in a landslide and the Liberal Republicans disappeared very quickly after the election. What if they had done slightly better and had stuck around as a, however minor, political force? Perhaps Charles Francis Adams as candidate instead of Greeley?

There's zero chance of the Liberal Republicans winning an election in 1876, but if the Democrats don't back their candidate once again they might serve to draw votes away from the anti-Administration forces and not have the election be so closely contested as it was OTL. President Grant considered standing for an unprecedented third term, but his administration was riddled with scandal. Could his running prompt a re-emergence of a Liberal Republican candidate even after they had disappeared four years prior and draw votes away from Tilden in the North?

The Democrats did win the 1884 election with Grover Cleveland, but it was a very close-run thing and might have actually been determined in the closing weeks when Republican candidate James G. Blaine, attending a meeting where Protestant preachers decried his opponents within the Party as joining forces with "rum, Romanism, and rebellion." Neither Blaine nor the reporters present made note of the anti-Catholic jibe, but an operative of the Cleveland campaign did, and the remark was widely publicised and may have cost Blaine New York and its thirty-six electoral votes. Had this been missed, James G. Blaine would have likely have become the 22nd President of the United States. Should Cleveland run again in 1888 against Blaine seeking a second term, and lose again, then twice the Democrats, specifically the Bourbon Democrat strand of the Party, had been defeated which might lead to defections over to the Republicans or even Populists out west.

On the subjects of splits, as well as Grover Cleveland, the Gold Standard would be a divisive issue for the Party throughout the final decade of the nineteenth century. 1896 saw free silver backer William Jennings Bryan nominated as the Democratic candidate, adopting some policies favoured by the Populist Party, and some Gold Standard backing Bourbons wanted to bolt and form their own party. They did, but neither of their preferred candidates, former President Grover Cleveland or Senator William Freeman Vilas would accept the nomination. Had either of them accepted, they might have had a higher profile and the split become ever more acrimonious.


If any one or even all of these things - further Liberal Republican runs, failure of the Bourbon Democrats to capture the White House, a bigger split over coinage - had happened might it have truly spelled the end of the Democratic Party as a national force? Would be nigh impossible to displace them from the South (entirely, the absence of the Corrupt Bargain of 1877 would be interesting for Reconstruction) but might the decline to the point of irrelevance in the North and the West with defections to the Republicans and/or Populists? What would eventually replace them in these locations? Could the Populists and the growing labour movement form the nucleus of a competitive Farmer-Labor Party? Or is a national victory over the Republicans impossible during this era without the South?

In the interests of balance, will be posting another thread tomorrow on the Republicans declining further following the New Deal.
 
Would it be possible for the Democrats to fully embrace the Copperheads during the Civil War, and then be forever tarred by that association outside of the South? Or alternatively for the divide between Copperheads and War Democrats to become the sort of thing that leads to a split into rival parties, with the bad blood between the two sides becoming enough that it never heals?
 
Would it be possible for the Democrats to fully embrace the Copperheads during the Civil War, and then be forever tarred by that association outside of the South? Or alternatively for the divide between Copperheads and War Democrats to become the sort of thing that leads to a split into rival parties, with the bad blood between the two sides becoming enough that it never heals?
I would say, yes. Horatio Seymour getting the nomination in 1864 isn't all that far fetched.
 
OK, so would this idea work?:

As I mentioned above, the Democrats fully embrace their anti-war, pro-Confederacy wing, and as a result they become known as the party of treason and slavery. This leads to a collapse of Democratic support in the North. In the South meanwhile the Federal Government is able to successfully carry out Reconstruction, which results in the biracial Republican coalition maintaining control. Completely shut out of the North and unable to regain control of the South the Democrats end up with a handful of local government positions and Representatives from parts of the South before they eventually die off as a party. In the short term this results in a period where the Republicans are basically unopposed, but within a short period of time something causes them to split and a new second party forms.
 
OK, so would this idea work?:

As I mentioned above, the Democrats fully embrace their anti-war, pro-Confederacy wing, and as a result they become known as the party of treason and slavery. This leads to a collapse of Democratic support in the North. In the South meanwhile the Federal Government is able to successfully carry out Reconstruction, which results in the biracial Republican coalition maintaining control. Completely shut out of the North and unable to regain control of the South the Democrats end up with a handful of local government positions and Representatives from parts of the South before they eventually die off as a party. In the short term this results in a period where the Republicans are basically unopposed, but within a short period of time something causes them to split and a new second party forms.

Would depend on who is involved in the 1864 election, embracing the Copperhead wing of the Party might lead to an even greater bolting of the War Democrats to the National Union ticket. If Lincoln is still assassinated (not to mention the VP and any other targets, but leaving that aside and now) then whoever was his VP pick on the National Union ticket rises to the presidency. Let's just assume it would still be Andrew Johnson (very likely), the Democrats might be completely discredited but Andrew Johnson isn't going to become a Radical Republican as a result. I could see him launching a challenge as "National Union" in 1868, and with the absence of the Democratic Party might be the only major candidate opposing the Republicans. If Grant, then it's possible the opposition quickly arises in the shape of an equivalent of the Liberal Republicans, only here they might have a better chance at surviving.
 
I've always loved the idea of American branches of international political movements popping up among immigrant communities if the Democrats vanished in the North. Imagine the Irish Parliamentary Party and Jewish Labor Bund as players in New York politics.

I don't know how realistic this would be, though - the only OTL example I can think of is the German-Americans' Socialist Labor Party, and that was a pretty fringe group. It would fly in the face of assimilationist ideology for sure. The "white ethnic" fraternal organizations that were a major part of Northern urban politics up until the 60s-70s might be a better point of comparison, and those thrived perfectly well in cooperation with the traditional American political parties. Two-party Republican-Populist system in the West and South, and dominant but multi-factional Republicans in the Northeast, with some of those factions based on ethnic lines?
 
The Bund being more of a thing in the US would be interesting, but idk how it would break in as an actual political party. Like there were no lasting German/Jewish/etc. socialist parties cause all the Germans and Jews just joined the Socialist Party, even if there were splits along ethnic lines. Not sure what would have to change to make that not the case.
 
The Bund being more of a thing in the US would be interesting, but idk how it would break in as an actual political party. Like there were no lasting German/Jewish/etc. socialist parties cause all the Germans and Jews just joined the Socialist Party, even if there were splits along ethnic lines. Not sure what would have to change to make that not the case.

If there were no Democrats and the dominant Republicans were sufficiently nativist not to allow immigrant communities to join and affiliate to their organization, yeah, the most likely result seems like it would be an earlier Socialist Party or some other form of general opposition party. But then it did take until the 1900s IOTL for the SPA to form out of the smaller groups that preceded it - maybe it would take a while for a non-ethnically based opposition party to get together.
 
Getting off topic now but what was the Irish Parliamentary Party's whole deal? Did they even have a diaspora wing?

All you ever hear about in relation to diaspora politics in that period is Fenians and James Connolly.
 
Getting off topic now but what was the Irish Parliamentary Party's whole deal? Did they even have a diaspora wing?

All you ever hear about in relation to diaspora politics in that period is Fenians and James Connolly.

There were Irish Nationalist political parties active in the Irish diaspora communities in England and Scotland (the ones in Liverpool continued to elect an MP to the UK Parliament after Irish independence), not sure about anywhere else. I think in the States it was mostly fraternal and extra-parliamentary organizations like the Fenians.
 
Hmm. Imagine Democrats in the South, The People’s Party in the West, the Socialist Party in NYC, Irish and German parties, the Tammany Machine and their counterparts in Chicago, Boston, etc., running as municipal parties and trying to break into statewide politics, Farmer-Workers’ Parties here and there.

And sometime along the line, they have to try and work together to end Republican hegemony.
 
I recall one of the movements was Southern democratic parties called themselves the Conservative Party. I would you could just see rebranding across the country. So Northern Democrats just end up folding into the Liberal Republicans or whatever the party ends up called, maybe just the Liberals. And they're always in a coalition with the Southern Democrats which are the Conservative Party.
 
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