Thurmond does it

[lerk]

Let's say Thurmond manages to deadlock the Electoral College in 1948. What happens next? I think Dewey and Truman might work out a deal instead of negotiating with Thurmond, yet in any case this will be a major boon to segregationists. You might see a campaign, which might succeed, advocating for abolishing the electoral college.

 

[Makemakean]

Let's say Thurmond manages to deadlock the Electoral College in 1948. What happens next? I think Dewey and Truman might work out a deal instead of negotiating with Thurmond, yet in any case this will be a major boon to segregationists. You might see a campaign, which might succeed, advocating for abolishing the electoral college.

Really depends entirely on how the situation looks in the House of Representatives, quite frankly. What with Sam Rayburn being solidly behind Truman, if the figures look anywhere near what they ended up looking in OTL, I don't see why Truman wouldn't just shrug and go, "throw it to the House then!"

I really doubt that Dewey would all of a sudden start offering the Southern Democrats anything.

 

[Elektronaut]

Yeah, it just goes to the House and Truman is elected there. Truman isn't going to start messing around doing 'corrupt bargains' for an EC majority when he can just be elected in the House.

 

[moth]

If it's thrown to the House, then Truman will become President; the question is more what happens in 1952, as Dewey will be seen as a President who was robbed of his victory (especially if Truman has failed to beat him in the PV), and going into '52, will be in an intensely strong position once the calamities of Truman's second term play out. Assuming he runs; and if he does, I think he's strong enough to beat Taft and whoever the Democrats nominate.

 

[Elektronaut]

If it's thrown to the House, then Truman will become President; the question is more what happens in 1952, as Dewey will be seen as a President who was robbed of his victory (especially if Truman has failed to beat him in the PV), and going into '52, will be in an intensely strong position once the calamities of Truman's second term play out. Assuming he runs; and if he does, I think he's strong enough to beat Taft and whoever the Democrats nominate.

You don't need to do anything as drastic as put Dewey over the top in the popular vote to hang the college, you just need to switch less than 13,000 votes in California and Ohio. I don't see any reason why Dewey as a double loser gets a Gore effect by the simple fact that the electoral college was hung in Truman's favour on the second attempt. There'd still be the 'you took us down to defeat' effect with the Taftites.

 

[OwenM]

Assuming the House results stay the same, then by my count while the Democrats control 26 delegations, 4 of those are in states where Thurmond won as the official Democratic candidate. I think it's possible the Dixiecrats can block Truman, and you at least temporarily get President Barkley.

 

[Oppo]

If it's thrown to the House, then Truman will become President; the question is more what happens in 1952, as Dewey will be seen as a President who was robbed of his victory (especially if Truman has failed to beat him in the PV), and going into '52, will be in an intensely strong position once the calamities of Truman's second term play out. Assuming he runs; and if he does, I think he's strong enough to beat Taft and whoever the Democrats nominate.

Eisenhower only barely got the nomination against Taft, and he was probably the most popular man in the nation. It’s going to be a hard battle for Dewey, even if he got the most electoral votes.

 

[Elektronaut]

Assuming the House results stay the same, then by my count while the Democrats control 26 delegations, 4 of those are in states where Thurmond won as the official Democratic candidate. I think it's possible the Dixiecrats can block Truman, and you at least temporarily get President Barkley.

Y tho

House members aren't going to automatically follow their state party btw. Thurmond basically got no Congressional support. Not surprisingly so given the possibility of retribution in terms of committee assignments etc. There's no incentive here.

Given this is a time when Republicans still have basic standards btw and weren't automatically hostile to civil rights, it's likely Dewey just says 'Okay, let's put this to bed' if they do 'succeed' in narrowly depriving Truman of a majority. A lot of Republicans would take a responsible The World Is Watching view and wouldn't want to prolong a constitutional crisis.

 

[The Red]

In regards to electors, I do wonder if the fact that Thurmond only won the states where he was the official Democratic candidate could be used as a sort of get-out; "people in these states voted for the Democratic candidate and Harry Truman is the Democratic candidate" or something along those lines.

 

[Makemakean]

Assuming the House results stay the same, then by my count while the Democrats control 26 delegations, 4 of those are in states where Thurmond won as the official Democratic candidate. I think it's possible the Dixiecrats can block Truman, and you at least temporarily get President Barkley.

Not with Sam Rayburn as Speaker. You crossed that man, you could be certain he would make your life a living hell. All the stuff you wanted done for your congressional district, uh-uh, you could just forget about it. There are stories about how when it looked like the Democrats were going to lose votes during his term as speaker, he would call up wavering Democrats to his office and just bluntly order them to vote the way he wanted them to.

 

[OwenM]

Y tho

House members aren't going to automatically follow their state party btw. Thurmond basically got no Congressional support. Not surprisingly so given the possibility of retribution in terms of committee assignments etc. There's no incentive here.

Given this is a time when Republicans still have basic standards btw and weren't automatically hostile to civil rights, it's likely Dewey just says 'Okay, let's put this to bed' if they do 'succeed' in narrowly depriving Truman of a majority. A lot of Republicans would take a responsible The World Is Watching view and wouldn't want to prolong a constitutional crisis.

Not with Sam Rayburn as Speaker. You crossed that man, you could be certain he would make your life a living hell. All the stuff you wanted done for your congressional district, uh-uh, you could just forget about it. There are stories about how when it looked like the Democrats were going to lose votes during his term as speaker, he would call up wavering Democrats to his office and just bluntly order them to vote the way he wanted them to.

Part of me was thinking that it feels like they might not get renominated if they did vote for Truman, if the state parties want to stand their ground, but I don't know how realistic that is. Elektonaut's point about Thurmond lacking congressional support suggests not.

 

[Makemakean]

Part of me was thinking that it feels like they might not get renominated if they did vote for Truman, if the state parties want to stand their ground, but I don't know how realistic that is. Elektonaut's point about Thurmond lacking congressional support suggests not.

They might encounter a few primary challenges, but in the end very few really have anything to worry about. Primary challenges of incumbents was extremely rare in the South at this point in history, and that had to do entirely with the very strong seniority system they used in Congress at the time. Challenging an incumbent was tantamount to saying "I think that our district's representative's seniority should be brought down to zero again, so that he'll have little to no clout to get anything accomplished for his constituents at all", and voters tended really, really, really not to like that notion, especially in the South, where Democrats jealously guarded their seniority.

 

[OwenM]

They might encounter a few primary challenges, but in the end very few really have anything to worry about. Primary challenges of incumbents was extremely rare in the South at this point in history, and that had to do entirely with the very strong seniority system they used in Congress at the time. Challenging an incumbent was tantamount to saying "I think that our district's representative's seniority should be brought down to zero again, so that he'll have little to no clout to get anything accomplish for his constituents at all", and voters tended really, really, really not to like that notion, especially in the South, where Democrats jealously guarded their seniority.

This makes it easier for me to understand why some people like legislative term limits.

 

[Makemakean]

This makes it easier for me to understand why some people like legislative term limits.

I mean, they still have far from gotten rid of the seniority system in the US Congress, it still holds massive influence on who gets a seat on what committee, and who on that committee gets to lead the work and be chairman/chairwoman. It's really the insane strength of it that has fostered this culture of representatives and senators standing for election after election well into their late 80s.

It's not a good system. At all.

And the people with the power to change it have no incentive to do so, because they got that power through the system in question.

It used to be even worse, of course. Back in the 50s or 60s, at one point, the Republicans in Arizona refused to field a candidate against a certain Democrat, because that Democrat was one of the most senior senators in the Senate, and they did not want to remove the clout with which he could horse trade for earmarks and pork for Arizona.

 

[Makemakean]

It should probably also be mentioned that Thurmond was far from a particularly adept politician in all fairness. His only real accomplishment was getting himself re-elected so many times, and keeping Abe Fortas from becoming Supreme Court Chief Justice.

He was considered something of a crazy ideologue even by other Southerners, and he really alienated them all with his filibuster in '57, making other staunch segregationists hate him for his vainglorious and narcissistic grandstanding.

 

[lerk]

OK, so after Truman wins, what happens next? How does Thurmond's career play out? What happens to the EC? What about civil rights?

 

[Makemakean]

OK, so after Truman wins, what happens next? How does Thurmond's career play out? What happens to the EC? What about civil rights?

I don't see any reason to believe that there will be too much fuss about the Electoral College going on. At the end of the day, there is a constitutional mechanism for dealing with situations like these, and they will play out as intended. Sure, some Republicans might murmur in bitterness, but no more than Democrats murmured in 2000 or 2016. They might have lost, but the election will widely be seen as a fluke, and the outcome as messy but within reason. It certainly wouldn't qualify for the term "Constitutional Crisis", and there'd be no great move for changing the basic rules by which presidential elections are fought.

As for Thurmond, I'm sure he can yet have a good career as Governor of South Carolina, and a popular one at that, and if he later on wishes to, he may very well run, and get elected to the Senate. By that point, enough time has passed that the other Southerners will welcome his as in OTL into the Southern caucus. Sure, Richard Russell, Jr. may shake his head and make wry comments about how Thurmond is a liability for the cause, but he certainly won't exclude him from the caucus. Any ally is a useful ally.

I see no reason to believe that this will have any tangible effects on the civil rights issue in the short term, Truman was bound to fail in that no matter what, and in the long term, the variables that need to be taken into account are so manifold that one cannot chart out a clear trajectory for where American will probably end up.

Now, Truman may end up having to chart a more careful path in his policies, both domestic and foreign, as he does not have the mandate of the comeback kid who defied all expectations and still secured his election. But I fear I can make no comments as to the specifics of this.