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The Duce and the Diving Board - Mussolini climbs down in 1940

Geordie

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"I think he must do something. If he cannot make a graceful dive, he will at least have to jump in somehow; he can hardly put on his dressing-gown and walk down the stairs again." General Wavell

This was said after Mussolini had declared himself to be non-belligerent, rather than neutral, when hostilities broke out in September 1939. In OTL, he eventually made his way in, in rather less graceful fashion than he'd have liked, and with rather disastrous consequences for himself, fascism as an ideology, Italy's colonial empire, and a generation of Italian men.

Every so often the question is asked: "what if he had put his dressing gown back on?". The same talking points are discussed - Libya as the Fourth Shore; Fascism and Nazism being seen as different beasts; Italy being a superpowered Spain - a pariah, but sort of tolerated due to its anticommunist stance; parallel war in Yugoslavia.

However, rereading A Blunted Sickle on the Old Country brings home just how big a deal the Italian entry was to the UK. It closed the Mediterranean to shipping, forcing huge changes in shipping and trade, and partly contributing towards the dollar shortage. It meant large forces were needed at either end to keep the Regia Marina bottled up (especially before Taranto). It meant Malta needed supported throughout. It stretched the RN to a massive degree, leading to less resources in the Far East. The Army needed to support the East African and North African campaigns, both sucking up an enormous amount of men, resources and shipping. It led to the Indian, Aussie and Kiwi forces being deployed and busy in places that weren't Malaya and Borneo. So that could be argued to have a rather big impact there.

However, if the Duce does climb down, what does the UK do? I am assuming France still falls, just with enough of a change to make the Duce lose his nerve. It can do an alt Operation Judgement on the Kriegsmarine perhaps, but other than that, how does the UK prosecute the war? If the Hexagon surrenders, the Second BEF will need withdrawn, as OTL. Is it then just war in the air, the Atlantic War and commando raids until something changes? Does the lack of Mussolini jumping provide enough impetus to those Fenchmen who wanted to retreat to Africa and fight on? If so, how does Hitler deal with the Metropole?

So yeah, huge considerations for economics, trade, empire, and the potantial of a Pacific War. But can the UK keep fighting? How? What is the aim? Will some sort of ceasefire emerge, as the armies simply can't fight each other?

Answers on a postcard.
 
I don't know how plausible it actually is, but I want to say that if the US still enters the war and if Barbarossa still happens (not unreasonable to think) that there'll be an earlier cross-channel invasion to take pressure off the Soviets simply because there aren't any existing ground theaters.
 
I don't know how plausible it actually is, but I want to say that if the US still enters the war and if Barbarossa still happens (not unreasonable to think) that there'll be an earlier cross-channel invasion to take pressure off the Soviets simply because there aren't any existing ground theaters.
That could be a disaster, although Churchill probably orders a "reconnaissance in force" from which lessons can be learned before that point
 
Possibly there's an earlier equivalent of Operation Torch, if the Med is more open to Britain, it has more resources & men around, and Churchill would surely want to do something other than air/Atlantic/commandos if he has the chance? Knocking the Vichy French out of North Africa, or at least part of North Africa, and getting the Free French seems a thing he'd do.
 
That could be a disaster, although Churchill probably orders a "reconnaissance in force" from which lessons can be learned before that point

Whatever the cost, I'm still seeing it happening. Apart from Stalin screaming even louder for a second front without even a small WAllied ground force already engaged, there was a legitimate fear (that can't be appreciated with postwar hindsight) of the Soviets collapsing entirely, one that would put even more pressure on them to do something big like that.
 
I've just thought. Depending on the US coming in at some stage, then when and where would the Expeditionary Force come into contact with the enemy? I think they will, as there won't be enough change on the Battle of the Atlantic, or on the psyche of FDR. Obviously, it may be a very different entry to OTL, depending on what Japan does in this scenario.

I suppose it depends on lots of unknowns. Does Vichy still happen? Is Free Fance stronger or weaker than OTL? I've just considered the idea of Fredendall being Officer Commanding of a Corps or larger in an alt-D-Day. If the US's first engagement is in Normandy, their learning curve will be far steeper and bloodier.
 
Whatever the cost, I'm still seeing it happening. Apart from Stalin screaming even louder for a second front without even a small WAllied ground force already engaged, there was a legitimate fear (that can't be appreciated with postwar hindsight) of the Soviets collapsing entirely, one that would put even more pressure on them to do something big like that.

Unless the Soviets really are on the ropes ITTL I can't see the British going for it. Churchill had to be dragged kicking and screaming to accept Overlord in 1944 when there was as much a guarantee of success as could be expected for an operation of that scale. By that time he could be told to get over himself by the strength of the consensus around the operation but in 1943 there will be credible doubts to whether a cross-channel invasion could succeed, enough to muddy the waters and lead to something "safer". I'd say that probably still means North Africa, then maybe Corsica (not sure if there were any significant Vichy forces there or if they'd resist presuming Anton still happens) then maybe Dragoon in '43. Or some hellish quagmire in Norway or the Balkans if parallelism is too boring.


Does Vichy still happen? Is Free Fance stronger or weaker than OTL?

I feel like the momentum behind what would become Vichy is probably unstoppable by the point in time it was clear Italy was going to enter the war. The defeatism had already become infectious by that point and those who's political ambitions coalesced with it were probably still going to win out over Reynaud and the others who wanted to fight on from North Africa. In the aftermath though, with it clear that the UK is going to fight on and survive in the medium term, I could see something like Operation Menace actually working and Free France becoming a relevant player much sooner.
 
A fair bit rests on how neutral Italy actually is of course, but perhaps Corsica ends up being liberated earlier on as a test bed for a naval invasion?

Corsica was liberated fairly soon and with Italian help that was already on the island. It is, however, an absolutely terrible place to invade navally, I'd think, and without the need to turn it into a 'naval carrier' to bomb Northern Italy with, I just don't see it happening. Would probably be the equivalent of Crete for the Germans, a place to lose your airborne divisions in. Even Churchill wouldn't see it as a soft underbelly as it's a strategical dead end, and it'd have to happen post Toulon mass scuttling.
 
Even if Mussolini keeps the Italian oar in from the opening of hostilities through to a Fall of France that still sees the establishment of an equivalent regime to Vichy, what's the stop him from bringing Italy into the war just a little later. The Pact of Steel was already a thing by the time hostilities broke out, and the whole schtick of Italian Fascism was to build the Italians an Empire maybe all Germany has to do is dangle a few carrots of Corsica, Nice and Savoy to get them in ("Sorry, Herr Petain, we tried ringing you but you were out thought you'd be chill with it.") Or maybe Mussolini foolishly tries to trigger a Greco-Italian War thinking he can keep it from getting caught up in the larger conflict. If that happens, or even if it doesn't, Germany may still have designs on southeastern Europe to protect the Romanian oil fields and maybe tries to force Yugoslavia into its sphere triggering a similar chain of events that led to their invasion OTL - and again the prospect of carrots all along the Adriatic coast may be enough to bring them in.
 
That does seem a thing he would do.

Almost an AH shaggy dog story, Italy remains neutral during the Second World War and Mussolini's idiocy gets them caught up in it quickly anyway.

Are there any additional things from within Italy that might make these changes lasting? An earlier palace coup to keep neutrality perhaps?
 
Are there any additional things from within Italy that might make these changes lasting? An earlier palace coup to keep neutrality perhaps?

Could a worse outcome in Ethiopia as discussed in this thread (assuming of course, no big butterflies from that) make Mussolini more timid about further military action?
 
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