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The Caedite Infobox and Graphics Thread

Northern Territory as the Yukon
TFW you realize that the Northern Territory started having self-government about the same time as the Yukon Territory.

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Results are based on OTL Northern Territory electorates' first preference votes.

The Liberals' votes are literally all independents + 1 Territory mashed together
 
UK '22 as Canada '93 (Mk 1)
"Haven't We Seen This Before?" or "UK '22 as Canada '93"

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  • Basically, these are just the 1993 popular vote results translated to the UK (with some slight difference because Quebec makes up a larger share of Canada's population than Scotland's proportion of the UK population).

    The analogues should be pretty obvious:
    • Lib Dem=Liberal
    • Labour= NDP
    • SNP = Bloc Québécois
    • Brexit= Reform
    • Conservative= Progressive Conservative
  • I chose the LibDems for the Canadian Liberal Party analogue mostly because they're clearly hitting their stride now (as seen by the recent EU election results) and right now they look better situated than Labour to capitalize from the omnishambles that is the post-referendum Conservative Party.
  • I gave 10% of the Liberal (LibDem) vote to the NDP (Labour) in this scenario since I couldn't honestly see Labour being reduced to 6.5% of the vote, nor the LibDems conceivably winning over 40% of the popular vote.
  • Before anyone complains—the reason the DUP and Conservatives are included in the box and others that won seats (Sinn Féin, Plaid Cymru, the Alliance, SDLP) are excluded is because the Conservatives were the incumbent ruling party in this scenario and had to be included for the infobox to get across that the party lost power instead of, say, dissolving or not contesting the election. The DUP is included to round out the second row, and because their supply and confidence agreement with the Conservatives kept the latter in power after the 2017 election
  • Yes, I could have used a different picture for Jo Swinson. No, I will not apologize.
  • The only remaining Conservative seat, for anyone interested, is East Devon.
 
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That map has Swinson losing her own seat-

Damn you Britain and your constituency names all blending together after a while. (Except you Wales- you da real MVP with your Ynys Môns and your Clwyds)

Guess Jo gets to be the sole member of her party from beyond Hadrian's Wall.

and surely they'd be able to hold at least a few seats up there with a Scottish leader?

Apparently not, according to the calculator I used.

I forgot to mention that I had Labour serve as the Canadian Liberal analogue in Scotland instead of the LibDems since it fits better as "the formerly dominant party in the region has been upstaged by a separatist party". Even if I split the LPC vote between the two like I did for the UK as a whole, it apparently just replaces the (pre-correction) total of 1 Labour seat in Scotland with 1 LibDem seat in Scotland and the SNP taking the rest.
 
I forgot to mention that I had Labour serve as the Canadian Liberal analogue in Scotland instead of the LibDems since it fits better as "the formerly dominant party in the region has been upstaged by a separatist party".
That also kind of works for the Lib Dems- who in all their forms have always had a disproportionately Scottish Parliamentary Party.
 
UK '22 as Canada '93 (Mk 2)
Redid it with the LibDems as the LPC analogue in Scotland (Quebec).

Could have sworn that I'd kept the same tactical voting percentages from the first run, but somehow got different results outside of Scotland
¯\_(ツ)_/¯

ukascanada93a.png
The Tories keep two more seats than before, one of which is Gavin Williamson's (the other is Malden). So I guess he's the Jean Charest in this analogy.
 
2019 Canada prediction/The (Tory) Gang Begins To Care About the Popular Vote
Forecast for the next Canuckistani election, according to 338Canada, or "The (Tory) Gang Begins To Care About the Popular Vote":

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Could have sworn that I'd kept the same tactical voting percentages from the first run, but somehow got different results outside of Scotland
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
This is quite late, but I think this is because, if you change the percentages for Scotland but don't change the national ones, the results across the board will change because you're basically asking it to spread the same number of votes around the country in a different way.
 
Chernobyl on the Susquehanna
"What have they done?"
- Harold Denton viewing the remains of the Reactor Two building at Three Mile Island on March 28, 1979.​

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This is obviously a "Chernobyl but in the United States".

Yes, I know that the myriad design flaws, lax safety culture and stifling political self-censorship in the scientific community that led to that particular disaster were not present in OTL American nuclear industry during this period, don't @ me.
 
2020 Port Riche election / Alexandra Courtois
A small continuation of this.

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The 2020 Port Riche general election will take place on or before October 20, 2020 to elect all 55 members of the National Assembly of Port Riche. Per the province's electoral law, the election will held on the third Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year after the previous election, although the possibility exists of an early election if either the government loses a confidence motion or the premier recommends an early dissolution to the lieutenant governor.

The governing Union Progressiste (UP) is seeking a second term after winning the 2016 election. The man who led the UP to victory, Richard Rousseau, was forced to resign in August 2019 after massive public protest following the leak of chat logs where Rousseau and members of his office made homophobic, racist and sexist remarks and discussed how they would use the media to discredit political opponents. An RCMP investigation into both the source of the leaks and whether the premier or his office committed potential crimes or employment law violations. His successor, Pierre Perreault, assumed office as premier and then won the party leadership in an uncontested race in September 2019.

Opposing the government in the election will be the Liberals, led by former Saint-Jean mayor Camille Lacroix. Lacroix gained international fame after the province was devastated by Hurricane Maria, criticizing both Rousseau and the federal government of being unprepared for such a massive natural disaster in the tropical province. She entered the National Assembly in a by-election after taking the party leadership in September 2018.

The anti-corruption, reformist Parti Boriquien (PB) will also contest all 55 seats in the election. The party's leader Alexandra Pôte will be the only major party leader from the previous election to run again in 2020. The party has yet to gain representation in the National Assembly.

This will be the first election where two major parties will be led by women. The Liberals have lead the UP in polling since the months after Hurricane Maria in 2017, and the chat log scandal and resignation of Rousseau briefly had the UP dipping to third in most polls behind the Liberals and PB.

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Alexandra Courtois is a Canadian politician who has represented the riding of Baie-Saint-Jean in the House of Commons since the 2015 federal election. She is a member of the New Democratic Party (NDP).

Courtois was born and raised in Saint-Jean, attending Queen's University and graduating cum laude from Queen's University in 2011 with a bachelor of arts in international relations and economics. While in university, she interned in the office of federal NDP leader Jack Layton. After her father's untimely death from lung cancer, she returned to Port Riche and began working as a bartender to help her mother pay bills. Between her graduation in 2011 and her election, she was active in social justice and anti-poverty causes on the island.

The NDP under Layton's successor Thomas Mulcair selected Courtois to be the party's candidate in the riding of Baie-Saint-Jean in 2015, a seat held by cabinet minister Louis Fortin and widely considered to be one of the safest Conservative seats in Port Riche. In spite of the federal receding of NDP fortunes following the 2011 election, Courtois managed to defeat upset Fortin by a convincing margin after an intense and well-coordinated local campaign, one of the party's few bright spots as they returned to third place nationally behind the Conservatives and new Liberal government.

Under both Mulcair and Jagmeet Singh, Courtois has served as the NDP's Youth critic since taking office. She retained her seat handily in the 2019 federal election, making her the sole NDP MP from Port Riche in the 43rd Parliament.

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Yukon as the Northern Territory
The follow-up to the "Northern Territory as the Yukon" box at the top of the page.

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  • The reason the PC analog are just plain Liberals is that the Yukon has never had a strong farming sector, hence no Country or National equivalent would pop up.
  • The Yukon Liberals' votes were divvied up using this as a baseline, with the "don't know/none" being sent to independents (roughly 40%) and the rest split between Labor (45%, OTL NDP) and Liberal (15%, OTL PC).
  • The preference flows for "independent" voters was drawn from the "overall" second-choice between second-choice NDP voters (76%) and second-choice Conservative voters (24%).
  • The 2012 results were similarly manufactured using the 2011 federal election second-choice data, which unsurprisingly meant most OTL Liberal votes went to the NDP, making TTL's Labor win a majority instead of the TTL Liberals (OTL PCs).
  • Carmack is the OTL Whitehorse Central provincial riding. It is named after the man initially credited with discovering the gold that led to the Klondike gold rush.

    Pearson is the OTL Mountainview provincial riding named after the OTL first premier of the Yukon (and likely TTL first Chief Minister of the territory).
 
Canada-in-India
The Kanata Legislative Assembly election of 2019 was held from 11 to 29 April 2019 to elect all 143 members of the Kanata Legislative Assembly. It took place concurrently with Kanata's voting during the Indian general election of 2019.

Incumbent Chief Minister Justin Trudeau led the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in an attempt to secure a second consecutive mandate. Trudeau had made a name for himself nationally in his clashes with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and led in opinion polls for the majority of the previous Legislative Assembly. However, corruption scandals in 2018 shook Kanatites' faith in Trudeau as the assembly came to its end.

The official opposition National Democratic Alliance (NDA) was led by Jason Kenney, who had taken up the reins after the coalition fell from power in Kanata in 2014. Also contesting were the Kanata Janata Dal (KJD) led by Jagmeet Singh, the Federal Front (FF) under new leader François Legault and the new All-Kanata Front (AKF) led by Maxime Bernier.

Despite Modi's unpopularity in the state, Kenney successfully threaded the needle of appealing to his coalition's diverse factions and Kanata at large until reports begun to appear alleging that he had prior knowledge of an attempted vote-stuffing for a NDA candidate in a Lok Sabha by-election in 2018. The reports and rumors that Kenney had tried to impose candidates from his own party on seats held by smaller coalition members led to several defecting to either the UPA or FF.

For the minor alliances and parties, Singh and the KJD lost support as it became clear that the election would result in either a Trudeau or Kenney ministry. Legault capitalized on the relative dip in support for the UPA in French-speaking areas to cleave those votes away from the UPA and Trudeau, declaring that he would support either party if they fell short of a majority on the condition that the new government ask the federal government to create a Francophone-majority state from part of Kanata. Bernier, a former NDA frontbencher who had left the coalition after losing the post-2014 power struggle to Kenney, created the KDF as a far-right, populist party that openly teased the idea of seceding from India and establishing Kanata as an independent nation.

Again in contrast to an NDA rout in the national election, the legislative assembly election in Kanata saw Trudeau and the UPA win the most seats of any party or coalition. Unlike 2014, however, the UPA did not win a majority, falling six seats short. The NDA increased its representation to 54 seats, while the Federal Front surged to third with 12 seats. The KJD under Singh fell to nine seats from the 21 they had won in the previous elections, while Bernier lost re-election as the AKF failed to win a single seat in the Legislative Assembly.

Trudeau subsequently agreed to a confidence-and-supply agreement with the KJD after rejecting Legault and the Federal Front's precondition of the creation of a French-speaking state.

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