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Taiwan has nukes in 1989

Another big question mark no-one's yet addressed, though- IOTL, the Taiwanese independence movement's effectively given up all claims to the mainland, and to be the sole legitimate government of all of China. ITTL though, mightn't the KMT regime's successful development and deployment of nuclear weaponry, before they can be stopped from doing so by the USA as they were IOTL, effectively see them more closely paralleling OTL's North Korea, or Pakistan?

The easiest way to prevent Chang Hsien-yi, Deputy Director of INER, from defecting to the USA in December 1987, or at any time in the next two years that it'd take Taiwan to successfully develop its own nuclear deterrent, would be if the presidential order promulgated by President Chiang Ching-kuo on 15 July 1987, which finally lifted Martial Law in the Taiwan Area, were simply never issued in the first place. Perhaps if the attempted cover-up of the 'Donggang Incident' were actually successful ITTL, and thus the United States House of Representatives never passed the "Taiwan Democracy Resolution" (H.R.1777) on 17 June 1987, nor the US Senate in December (immediately prior to Col Chang's defection)?

Thus, a Taiwan which does maintain martial law to a sufficient extent, for long enough, to complete its nuclear program before the Reagan Administration can manage to find out and intervene to get its program shut down, would almost certainly be a far less liberal and democratic Taiwan than IOTL. In order to bring about the outcome of a nuclear-armed Taiwan by 1989, the 'Palace Faction' of the KMT, led by Chiang Kai-shek's widow, Soong Mei-ling, would have needed to emerge victorious over 'Mr. Democracy', Lee Teng-hui. According to Chang Hsien-yi, it had been Soong Mei-ling, and the military officials loyal to her, who'd expedited the development of nuclear weapons in the first place, and had even set up a parallel chain of command to further their agenda.

A nuclear-capable Taiwan almost certainly wouldn't have renounced its claims to mainland China, any more than North Korea has. It'd also almost certainly adopt an asymmetric escalation posture, which'd almost certainly increase tensions with the PR of China in much the same manner that Pakistan's did with India. And there's a greatly increased risk that, as in the cases of Pakistan and North Korea, the massively increased strength and political power of more conservatist military elements in a nuclear-armed Taiwan could well result in TTL's Taiwan going on a downwards spiral when it comes to societal and economic progress, reducing it to become just as much of a 'basket case'.
 
Another big question mark no-one's yet addressed, though- IOTL, the Taiwanese independence movement's effectively given up all claims to the mainland, and to be the sole legitimate government of all of China. ITTL though, mightn't the KMT regime's successful development and deployment of nuclear weaponry, before they can be stopped from doing so by the USA as they were IOTL, effectively see them more closely paralleling OTL's North Korea, or Pakistan?

The easiest way to prevent Chang Hsien-yi, Deputy Director of INER, from defecting to the USA in December 1987, or at any time in the next two years that it'd take Taiwan to successfully develop its own nuclear deterrent, would be if the presidential order promulgated by President Chiang Ching-kuo on 15 July 1987, which finally lifted Martial Law in the Taiwan Area, were simply never issued in the first place. Perhaps if the attempted cover-up of the 'Donggang Incident' were actually successful ITTL, and thus the United States House of Representatives never passed the "Taiwan Democracy Resolution" (H.R.1777) on 17 June 1987, nor the US Senate in December (immediately prior to Col Chang's defection)?

Thus, a Taiwan which does maintain martial law to a sufficient extent, for long enough, to complete its nuclear program before the Reagan Administration can manage to find out and intervene to get its program shut down, would almost certainly be a far less liberal and democratic Taiwan than IOTL. In order to bring about the outcome of a nuclear-armed Taiwan by 1989, the 'Palace Faction' of the KMT, led by Chiang Kai-shek's widow, Soong Mei-ling, would have needed to emerge victorious over 'Mr. Democracy', Lee Teng-hui. According to Chang Hsien-yi, it had been Soong Mei-ling, and the military officials loyal to her, who'd expedited the development of nuclear weapons in the first place, and had even set up a parallel chain of command to further their agenda.

A nuclear-capable Taiwan almost certainly wouldn't have renounced its claims to mainland China, any more than North Korea has. It'd also almost certainly adopt an asymmetric escalation posture, which'd almost certainly increase tensions with the PR of China in much the same manner that Pakistan's did with India. And there's a greatly increased risk that, as in the cases of Pakistan and North Korea, the massively increased strength and political power of more conservatist military elements in a nuclear-armed Taiwan could well result in TTL's Taiwan going on a downwards spiral when it comes to societal and economic progress, reducing it to become just as much of a 'basket case'.
I disagree. Madame Chiang was very old and unlikely to last as a leader. I think Taiwan would still democratize. I think that at some point, a nuclear armed Taiwan would have decided to recognize reality, formally declared independence and renounced the return to the mainland fantasy and applied for UN membership as a separate nation.
 
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I disagree. Madame Chiang was very old and unlikely to last as a leader. I think Taiwan would still democratize. I think that at some point, a nuclear armed Taiwan would have decided to recognize reality, formally declared independence and renounced the return to the mainland and applied for UN membership as a separate nation.
Indeed, Madame Chiang was very old and unlikely to last as a leader. Which was why she'd already withdrawn from actively engaging in political affairs back in 1975, and thenceforth projected her influence via those generals in the Taiwanese military who were supremely loyal to her, led primarily by long-serving Chief of the General Staff of the RoC's Armed Forces, General Hau Pei-tsun (who was appointed Premier by Lee Teng-hui in part to appease him and Madame Chiang, along with their conservative 'Mainlander/Palace Faction' within the KMT, who had otherwise threatened to run a rival presidential ticket in OTL's March 1990 election). At the time, Hau's appointment sparked protests from many in Taiwan, and remarks of concern from the Western media, who believed it marked retrogression toward military rule, with President Lee defending his decision by saying he valued Hau's tough stance on crime.

But as Premier of Taiwan, Hau Pei-tsun held even higher approval ratings throughout his tenure than Lee's, having been perceived as being tough on crime, and promoted his own multi-billion dollar economic development plan to industrialize Taiwan (revolving around compensating for the fall in Taiwanese exports to the American and Japanese markets by expanding Taiwan's overseas trade; especially across the Straits, by permitting Taiwanese companies to invest in mainland China for the first time, and pushing for a more open economy in the mainland). This, though, was done with the underlying ambition of securing reunification via establishing oligarchic, economic dominion over mainland China first, after which, political dominion would surely follow; rather than focusing upon political dominion via the overthrow of the Communist regime.

ITTL, the victory of the 'Palace Faction' wouldn't have seen Madame Chiang come to power as the next leader of the Republic of China, following her son-in-law's demise; it would've almost certainly seen General Hau Pei-tsun winning that nomination to be the KMT's candidate for the 1990 Presidential Election over Lee Teng-hui (if said Presidential Election actually took place at all)- for the nukes to come to fruition, Madam Chiang faction has to win, which means that Lee Teng-hui's faction against her would also have to lose. Thus, General Hau Pei-tsun'd almost certainly be the one who'd become President of the ROC (/Taiwan) in Lee Teng-hui's stead. All indicators suggest that he could well have been a relatively successful and popular leader, at least for the first few years. And as President, with a growing nuclear arsenal to back him up, General Hau certainly wouldn't have been willing to give up on reunification.
 
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