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Taiping rebels capture Beijing

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
#1
What if the Taiping rebels had managed to take Beijing during their Northern Expedition? I doubt they would have been able to rule China but what, exactly, would happen to China? Would it fall into an earlier warlord era?
 
#2
Are we assuming the Qing are completely knocked out and can't rebound? It'd be a tough ask after losing the capital, but probably not entirely impossible.

I've always sort of envisaged any Taiping victory as degenerating rather quickly into an earlier warlord era, given Xiuquan's lack of effective leadership and control over his generals (see: the Tianjing Incident), the potential for all the other revolts to still bubble along, localised resistance to the Taiping, and the existence of previously Qing-affiliated forces who now have no one to answer to etc.

I imagine the western response would be very, very important.
 
Location
Portugal
#3
Are we assuming the Qing are completely knocked out and can't rebound? It'd be a tough ask after losing the capital, but probably not entirely impossible.

I've always sort of envisaged any Taiping victory as degenerating rather quickly into an earlier warlord era, given Xiuquan's lack of effective leadership and control over his generals (see: the Tianjing Incident), the potential for all the other revolts to still bubble along, localised resistance to the Taiping, and the existence of previously Qing-affiliated forces who now have no one to answer to etc.

I imagine the western response would be very, very important.
Say the Qing are limited to their homeland in Manchuria.
As for the Western response, AFAIK, the West was originally friendly towards the Taiping but that changed later on.
 
#4
As for the Western response, AFAIK, the West was originally friendly towards the Taiping but that changed later on.
Yeah, that was always my vague understanding as well- that originally there was some enthusiasm at the prospect of a highly successful Chinese Christian movement, but that melted away once it became clear how... unique Hong's take on Christianity was, combined with some other things the westerners found offputting (banning opium, not treating the actual Chinese Christians under their rule great).

And then simultaneously you had Prince Gong being reasonable at the negotiation table and the removal of Xianfeng's ultra-conservative clique of advisors, improving relations with the Qing.