Succesful Bruce conquest of Ireland

[Gary Oswald]

Is it possible and if so how?

It's tempting to say that Bruce's army approached Dublin twice, if either time they'd managed to take the city that would be game over but well the scots had a fine army at the time but their record for breaching walled fortifications was not good. If carrickfergus, carlisle, berwick and the like gave them so much trouble, Dublin would probably be the same. They almost always failed at capturing actual cities despite largely having control over the area outside them.

I've heard it suggested that it might have been possible for him to win over the alliegence of the anglo-irish rather than actually needing to defeating them but well there isn't much precedent for english lords flat out defecting rather than just refusing to fight the scots or paying them tribute to go away.

The native irish in connaght winning at Atheney in 1316 would almost certainly reduce the strength of the english armies in the field but you still have the problem that the scots are operating in poor territory during a famine and had difficulity commanding the loyalty of many of the gaels.

If you delay the main campaigning to 1318 then Edward would probably do better but the campaign happened in 1315 for good reasons (cutting off supplies to carlisle and Mann and preempting an english armada that was gathering to attack the western isles in 1316) and the fact the scots continued to campaign through 1316 and 1317 rather than waiting for the weather to improve seems to have been as part of a pre agreed arrangement with irish and welsh rebels which Edward couldn't easily break.

There's other possibilities. Edward Bruce attempted to buy a mercenary fleet from Genoa who arrived in the english chanel and then turned back when they weren't unpaid which might have helped to take Dublin had money been found. Some sources suggested there were Scottish reinforcements unused for Faughart who could have won the battle for Edward had he waited for them but that's debatable.

Atheney seems your best bet to me.

 

[Gary Oswald]

The obvious question of course is if the Bruce's can take Ireland to what extent can they actually hold it?

First of all if you're going with a victory at Atheney than the native Irish are going to be a strong force and Scottish control over them is probably not going to be much more extensive than English control was. You'd need a later tudor style conquest for that to change. Secondly you still have the english, this was the Scottish at their very strongest compared to the English and when the balance shifts later Ireland is going to be vulnerable. Thirdly, how comfortable is the high king of Ireland going to be at being a Scottish vassal. On the one hand, they probably need Scottish military support given points one and two, on the other well itd be a good position for an ambitious man to build up his own power base. Like they have a clear claim to the Scottish throne which is going to be pushed if like otl there's contested successions. Fourthly, what's the succession in Ireland here? Is it going to be an heriditary Scottish dynasty or do the native Irish have a chance of picking one of their own. Fiftly, does Edward stop here? At this point everything he's touched has turned to gold and he was a very ambitious man. If he gets Ireland does he then go after Wales like he'd talked about? Because that seems unlikely to end well if he does.

 

[RyanF]

I can't see Scotland keeping Ireland for any length of time, a combination of the Irish and English not making it a likely prospect.

Most likely Edward goes A Celtic Nation Too Far and attempts an invasion of Wales. Beaten back there by the English, booted out of Ireland by the Irish, the border might be further south though.

 

[Gary Oswald]

I can't see Scotland keeping Ireland for any length of time, a combination of the Irish and English not making it a likely prospect.

Most likely Edward goes A Celtic Nation Too Far and attempts an invasion of Wales. Beaten back there by the English, booted out of Ireland by the Irish, the border might be further south though.

I think full control is miles beyond them but the difficulty in capturing walled cities and getting the various irish clans working together that hindered Edward would work in his favour once he was in control. It's difficult to see the irish of this timeframe a) uniting against the scots or b) being able to capture dublin from them without english help.

An invasion of Wales would be interesting. The scots were a formidable army, who were generally much better than anything the English had which was why they did as well as they did in Ireland and why anything north of leeds was essentially paying taxes to Robert the Bruce rather than Edward II during this time period. Likewise Thomas Dun was able to raid welsh ports in 1315 so moving an army there is probably possible. It seems like it was only post Edward's death in 1318 that the english regained control of the Irish Sea.

But part of the reason for scottish success is that the southern lords didn't really commit to fighting the Scots because of dissatisfaction with Edward II and a desire to hold back their forces for an upcoming civil war. An invasion of Wales might actually tip the balance towards the scots being seen as a much greater threat and the grievances with Edward II being put aside, which would be terrible news for Scotland. And it's not hard to see the scottish army trapped in wales and wiped out, like a welsh Faughart.

OTOH, while I don't think the Scottish can take wales, the English at the time might. If it really panics them, they might move against Edward II and force him to make the peace with Scotland that Robert has been asking for. Which at this point would almost certainly be the scots withdraw from Wales and Northern England but get Scotland and Ireland.

 

[Alex Richards]

Would this be too late for Scottish acquisition of Carlisle do you think?

 

[Gary Oswald]

Would this be too late for Scottish acquisition of Carlisle do you think?

I think so. Edward's otl invasion of Ulster cut off all irish support to Carlisle and the local forces in Carlisle Castle still held out. So a more successful campaign probably won't make a difference.

The innate issue with any Bruce wank is despite their power, they just weren't very good at sieges or breeching defended walls. It's the same issue you get with trying to wank the songhai. It's why Wales in particular would be such a difficult proposition.

 

[Gary Oswald]

The counter point, I suppose, is that capturing Edinburgh was a huge boost to the Scottish cause because it was a major city and so had riches and supplies. The same is probably true of Dublin so that might be the tipping point that gives Robert the extra firepower he needs to take Carlisle.