Stronger Welsh nationalism?

[d32123]

What fairly modern (19th century or later) PoDs could lead to a stronger Welsh nationalist movement, or even an independent Wales?

 

[Charles EP M.]

The most recent and easy modern PoD would be if the proposed Welsh Assembly doesn't happen for whatever reason (a narrow defeat in the referendum, Labour decides to not bother after flying the proposal etc). Then it's been promised something only to see it taken away, and at a time when Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London are all getting their own special lah-de-dah setups. This also discredits Labour for a number of Welsh voters.

 

[Dan1988]

Making Cymru Fydd and the Welsh Parliamentary Party more of a thing. Of course, that would have to mean that a lot of the MPs representing Wales (and Monmouthshire) actually cared about their Welsh constituencies and their issues, that early on. So it would have to be post-Great Reform Act.

 

[Nyvis]

The most recent and easy modern PoD would be if the proposed Welsh Assembly doesn't happen for whatever reason (a narrow defeat in the referendum, Labour decides to not bother after flying the proposal etc). Then it's been promised something only to see it taken away, and at a time when Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London are all getting their own special lah-de-dah setups. This also discredits Labour for a number of Welsh voters.

Plaid taking over Labour seats like the SNP did in Scotland would be interesting for sure. I don't know how far they'd go though.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Plaid taking over Labour seats like the SNP did in Scotland would be interesting for sure. I don't know how far they'd go though.

I get the feeling 'not as far' because, well, Plaid don't seem to be doing too well - but that could lead to a situation where they've nobbled Labour and a right wing party (UKIP used to do quite well with the AMs compared to the rest of the country) takes advantage. Then it could become Plaid VS UKIP-or-whoever in some places just on grounds of "well shit I need to vote anyone left-leaning to keep them out"

 

[Elektronaut]

The most recent and easy modern PoD would be if the proposed Welsh Assembly doesn't happen for whatever reason (a narrow defeat in the referendum, Labour decides to not bother after flying the proposal etc). Then it's been promised something only to see it taken away, and at a time when Scotland, Northern Ireland, and London are all getting their own special lah-de-dah setups. This also discredits Labour for a number of Welsh voters.

It'd fail because the Welsh electorate had rejected it in a referendum, by the people of Wales. So don't know where you think the outrage would come from. The referendum results were largely on the traditional west-south/east divide. It actually failed in Cardiff, for instance.

If history proceeds with minimal butterflies, I don't think we'd have Welsh devolution today had it been rejected a second time, still less stronger Welsh nationalism. What happened in Scotland would scare Labour off a third go, big time, and PC is too sectional to really dethrone Labour like in Scotland, particularly under FPTP.

 

[Alex Richards]

Can't help but think it kills off the North East Devo referendum as well.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Prevent so much English and, to a lesser extent, Irish migration to Wales during the Industrial Revolution and Wales would remain mostly Welsh speaking and probably have a stronger nationalist movement.

 

[Alex Richards]

Prevent so much English and, to a lesser extent, Irish migration to Wales during the Industrial Revolution and Wales would remain mostly Welsh speaking and probably have a stronger nationalist movement.

I legitimately don't think that's possible without some sort of precondition that essentially blocks the industrial revolution from even happening in South Wales. There's just too perfect a confluence of coal and iron deposits near to the coast for the process to get started unless it's literally *all of Glamorganshire and Monmouthshire are owned by some bloke who only wants sheep farms and his descendants do the same for the next 200 years*.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I legitimately don't think that's possible without some sort of precondition that essentially blocks the industrial revolution from even happening in South Wales. There's just too perfect a confluence of coal and iron deposits near to the coast for the process to get started unless it's literally *all of Glamorganshire and Monmouthshire are owned by some bloke who only wants sheep farms and his descendants do the same for the next 200 years*.

Why not simple having the industries rely more on local workers?

 

[Nyvis]

Why not simple having the industries rely more on local workers?

I doubt there's enough of those.

On the other hand, an interesting idea could be to have more Irish immigration and less English one, with the Irish forming a separate block rather than Welsh speakers being overwhelmed by English speakers and Welsh Nationalism maybe swinging towards some kind of pan Celtic conception to court them as voters away from English parties?

 

[Alex Richards]

Why not simple having the industries rely more on local workers?

The population of Glamorgan was 326,254 in 1861.

In 1911 it was 1.12 million. That's equivalent to the entire 1861 population of Wales moving to Glamorgan. And that's even after an initial period of growth in the early 19th Century.

Wales' population doubled every 50 years in the 19th Century.

I doubt there's enough of those.

On the other hand, an interesting idea could be to have more Irish immigration and less English one, with the Irish forming a separate block rather than Welsh speakers being overwhelmed by English speakers and Welsh Nationalism maybe swinging towards some kind of pan Celtic conception to court them as voters away from English parties?

Problem is the English migrants were often miners coming from other areas of existing coal mines- Newcastle, Somerset, the Midlands etc. There was work for unskilled Irish labour, but it wasn't down the mines, it was digging canals and laying railroads and the like.

 

[Nyvis]

Problem is the English migrants were often miners coming from other areas of existing coal mines- Newcastle, Somerset, the Midlands etc. There was work for unskilled Irish labour, but it wasn't down the mines, it was digging canals and laying railroads and the like.

Well, but that's also an opportunity because that means clear delineations. They don't have to win outright to have stronger nationalism, just have more pro nationalist demographics bound to them. The miners will lean to labour anyway, but the Irish could be up for grabs, at which point it also contributes to maintaining their distinct identity, which in turn keep them separate as a voter base.

 

[Alex Richards]

Well, but that's also an opportunity because that means clear delineations. They don't have to win outright to have stronger nationalism, just have more pro nationalist demographics bound to them. The miners will lean to labour anyway, but the Irish could be up for grabs, at which point it also contributes to maintaining their distinct identity, which in turn keep them separate as a voter base.

Ah but the Irish were Catholic whereas the Welsh tended non-conformist, and tended to move more. Pan-Celtic thought tended much more to mutual support of language as well, so Irish communities were more likely to gravitate to Irish representative groups.

 

[Elektronaut]

Can't help but think it kills off the North East Devo referendum as well.

It should, but trying to get it done by referendum IOTL when the government's popularity was sinking fast, when Welsh devolution had only passed by a hair during the government's honeymoon was kind of a strange decision itself.

 

[RobinCarmody]

Lot of movement from the part of the country where Tolpuddle happened - where it has tended to be less widely commemorated than elsewhere precisely because of that movement - into South Wales in the subsequent era, as well. (Admittedly, this doesn't really add to the thread but I still feel like saying it ...)