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Spain keeps Mexico.

#1
In our timeline, by 1820, Spain had pretty much defeated the Mexican rebels and only lost Mexico because the conservatives led by Iturbide switched sides after Riego's liberal coup. Say the coup hadn't happened or failed. How long could Spain keep Mexico? How would New Spain develop? How would Spain, itself, change? How would How would the US expand? Defeating Mexico is one thing, defeating the Spanish Empire is quite another.
 
#4
Not entirely sure why you're asking me in particular- it's really not my area of expertise at all.

I doubt Spain would be able to keep hold of Mexico for long even if they were able to impose a victory at this point.
I asked you because of your replies in http://forum.sealionpress.co.uk/index.php?threads/the-fall-of-the-spanish-empire.2382/.
Regardless, once again, remember that by 1820, Spain had pretty much defeated the Mexican rebels, that had been reduced to guerrillas.
 

Alex Richards

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#5

Mumby

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#7
In our timeline, by 1820, Spain had pretty much defeated the Mexican rebels and only lost Mexico because the conservatives led by Iturbide switched sides after Riego's liberal coup. Say the coup hadn't happened or failed. How long could Spain keep Mexico? How would New Spain develop? How would Spain, itself, change? How would How would the US expand? Defeating Mexico is one thing, defeating the Spanish Empire is quite another.
tbh i think new spain would likely be weaker than mexico.

the old country would still have all the problems it encountered otl of the ruination inflicted by the napoleonic wars and then the bloodletting of the carlist wars. i imagine american settlers wouldnt have much of a problem carving lumps out of an ill-defended mexican frontier.
 

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#8
If the US goes to war with Spain over Texas etc. does it take the opportunity to take Cuba and Puerto Rico?
 

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#9
tbh i think new spain would likely be weaker than mexico.

the old country would still have all the problems it encountered otl of the ruination inflicted by the napoleonic wars and then the bloodletting of the carlist wars. i imagine american settlers wouldnt have much of a problem carving lumps out of an ill-defended mexican frontier.
Only if Isabel II (born in 1830) is born female, frankly.

If the US goes to war with Spain over Texas etc. does it take the opportunity to take Cuba and Puerto Rico?
Depends on when. If it is before the 1870s, the Spanish Navy was still a formidable force, the post-1868 instability and inward focus of the country led to the non-renovation of the Navy that meant it was extremely outdated and weak by 1898.

Land-based forces would be a different story though.
 
#10
tbh i think new spain would likely be weaker than mexico.

the old country would still have all the problems it encountered otl of the ruination inflicted by the napoleonic wars and then the bloodletting of the carlist wars. i imagine american settlers wouldnt have much of a problem carving lumps out of an ill-defended mexican frontier.
Thing is, Spain had bought off the Comanche. The Spaniards gave the Comanche tribute in exchange for them not raiding Spanish settlements.
 
#11
tbh i think new spain would likely be weaker than mexico.

the old country would still have all the problems it encountered otl of the ruination inflicted by the napoleonic wars and then the bloodletting of the carlist wars. i imagine american settlers wouldnt have much of a problem carving lumps out of an ill-defended mexican frontier.
Also, considering that the Texan rebels only defeated Mexico due to Santa Anna's incompetence, I'm pretty sure that they could never have defeated Spain.