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Spain in the Axis: what next?

Given the feeble and outdated nature of the Ejercito del Aire in 1940-2, and the number of Portuguese air bases the RAF can use, that air superiority may be a long time coming.

Honestly don't think this would be the case for various reasons in the time period where Franco was remotely going to join the Axis. I think the Germans could establish air superiority fairly easily given the RAF was reluctant to send too many of its squadrons overseas and Portugal may or may not be a factor at all depending on how scary the Germans look at the moment. Taking Gibraltar would be something the Germans would probably devote massive resources to. An Iberian front would probably be fairly short lived.

Its the economic factors and follow up politics and possible early second front that change things around.
 
Honestly don't think this would be the case for various reasons in the time period where Franco was remotely going to join the Axis. I think the Germans could establish air superiority fairly easily given the RAF was reluctant to send too many of its squadrons overseas

There were over 1000 RAF combat aircraft in North Africa by mid-1941, and the Luftwaffe & Regia Aeronautica never had air superiority over any part of North Africa.

Spain entering the war against the Allies spreads the Luftwaffe's & Regia Aeronautica's limited resources thinner still.

Britain has Lend-Lease and a naval blockade and there is nothing Spain can do to counteract this.
 
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There were over 1000 RAF combat aircraft in North Africa by mid-1941, and the Luftwaffe & Regia Aeronautica never had air superiority over any part of North Africa.

Spain entering the war against the Allies spreads the Luftwaffe's & Regia Aeronautica's limited resources thinner still.

Britain has Lend-Lease and a naval blockade and there is nothing Spain can do to counteract this.

If Portugal sits out then the RAF doesn't have the bases to use to operate over any part of Spain. If Portugal is involved and there is a major Iberian front in 1940-41 then its worth more investment than North Africa got and there are freer resources because it probably gets the same or more effort the Balkans campaign got OTL.

If its any later than that then Hitler would have to promise Franco so much that that an entirely different strategy to the war must be taking place with the Med as the main theater. Either way there is a lot higher priority for a fairly limited objective.
 
Ideally for the Allies, Portugal would enter the war during a Iberian campaign, not upon the Spanish declaration of war. With the best of intentions, the British army would probably be unable to stop a Spanish-German force from overrunning Portugal. If the Americans and British are able to launch a Iberian campaign in 1942, then a well timed Portuguese declaration would give them a beachhead and intact ports overnight.

By 1942 Spain is going to be heavily reliant on German support, perhaps a corps or two, and no doubt SOE and OSS operatives have got the Maquis ready to cause havoc the moment the Allies land.
 
If Portugal sits out then the RAF doesn't have the bases to use to operate over any part of Spain.

Why would Portugal "sit it out?"

Salazar's government won't survive a transatlantic naval blockade, nor a Francoist invasion either.

Only one neutral country on the Iberian peninsular got large numbers of advanced combat aircraft from its Allies (142 Hurricanes, 105 Spitfires, 20 Airacobras, 20 Blenheims) during WW2 and it wasn't Spain.

By 1942 Spain is going to be heavily reliant on German support.

Spain is going to be massively reliant on German and Italian support from the outset, given their trade with the USA and Mexico just evaporated.

Given Italy was reliant on the Reich, it's just chucking worse money after bad money.
 
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Why would Portugal "sit it out?"

Salazar's government won't survive a transatlantic naval blockade, nor a Francoist invasion either.

Only one neutral country on the Iberian peninsular got large numbers of advanced combat aircraft from its Allies (142 Hurricanes, 105 Spitfires, 20 Airacobras, 20 Blenheims) during WW2 and it wasn't Spain.



Spain is going to be massively reliant on German and Italian support from the outset, given their trade with the USA and Mexico just evaporated.

Given Italy was reliant on the Reich, it's just chucking worse money after bad money.
Because Spain and the Axis are right next door and Portugal would be in a death struggle. It wanted to protect its independence and deter a Spanish invasion. It might decide that if it does not fight today it will have to fight tomorrow against worse odds, or it might decide given what was happening around Europe its better off sitting out because it doesn't want to be fighting a war.

Defending Gibraltar would be a major British objective but the Portuguese would have a very different equation, how they work it out I don't know but either way but its far from certain they would decide to go with declaring war on Spain.
 
Defending Gibraltar would be a major British objective but the Portuguese would have a very different equation,

Portugal had already accepted 2,500 Britons evacuated from Gibraltar at the outbreak of war, so you don't need a crystal ball to work whose side they would be on should Spain declare war on Britain.

Which is what 'joining the Axis' effectively means.

Also, Portugal has an overseas empire dependent on the goodwill of the Royal Navy.
 
Portugal had already accepted 2,500 Britons evacuated from Gibraltar at the outbreak of war, so you don't need a crystal ball to work whose side they would be on should Spain declare war on Britain.

Which is what 'joining the Axis' effectively means.

Also, Portugal has an overseas empire dependent on the goodwill of the Royal Navy.

So what?

Plenty of neutral nations were willing to do favours for the allies, very few wanted Germany to win, but none wanted to pay the cost of the war themselves. Saving Gibraltar at the cost of fighting a war in Portugal is not a good deal for Portugal. They might decide that they have no choice or that they could gain something from it, but they could just as easily and in my mind more probably decide that its not worth it.

There probably is a fair bit of speculation on that very subject somewhere, maybe someone has researched it?
 
Does Portugal have a reason (either legitimate or OTL-held paranoia) to believe that if Spain goes Axis, Portugal and its empire are going to have the crap kicked out of it?
 
Does Portugal have a reason (either legitimate or OTL-held paranoia) to believe that if Spain goes Axis, Portugal and its empire are going to have the crap kicked out of it?

Going off this, how likely is it that Estado Novo Portugal chooses to join the Axis as well?
 
I think Gibraltar will last longer than you think, especially as it can be resupplied by sea, the Spanish navy will last about a week, and if the Royal Navy can shell Genoa & La Spezia and just lose one Swordfish, Algeciras and La Linea aren't going to last very long.

Leaving aside the question of how, the issue isn't so much food or ammunition as it is water. Most of the Rock's water supply is vulnerable to shelling and aerial bombing because it's largely dependent on open air catchments. Spanish artillery alone could probably do the job but if reinforced by the Germans as planned, there's no question of it rapidly falling because the defenders can't go three days without water.

Still the question of how the British do this in 1940-1941 is a big ask. There are no friend air bases nearby and the Spanish control the approaches to the peninsula, meaning any convoys would have to face a gauntlet of mines, U-Boats, E-Boats and the Luftwaffe. The only means of air support would require the Royal Navy to divert aircraft carriers for such a mission, because otherwise every run the Germans detect ends up like PQ-17 or Force Z. There's also the question of how many oil tankers can Britain repurpose to haul in water on short notice and to do so consistently? If British oil tankers are busy moving fresh water, they aren't support Imperial forces in North Africa or the RAF's bomber campaign.

Tell me you haven't read Mein Kampf or any biography of Hitler without telling me you haven't Mein Kampf or any biography of Hitler.

I would recommend you read the Table Talks for one to dissuade such notions, but I will humor you: what part of his book are you referring to? What biography are you referring to?
 
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