One thing that has always fascinated me about Hinckley successfully assassinating Reagan is the effect on American culture in the 1980s. Leaving aside just how much Reagan might have shaped culture through his personality and policies there are going to be some pretty heavy reactions when it becomes apparent that Hinckley's viewing of
Taxi Driver played a part in his actions.
A few possible effects:
- Jodie Foster probably removes herself from public life, the media attention was bad enough following the attempted assassination and this would only be amplified if it was successful.
- Martin Scorsese, whose career had only just started recovery following Raging Bull and whose life had only just been saved by De Niro helping him kick his cocaine habit, might go back onto a downward spiral in both respects. No way is he getting The King of Comedy made in this environment, and depending on how badly his drug habit returns its possible he might die very young.
- @Avalanches has mentioned Bob Dole as a potential VP brought on by GHWB, we might remember that Bob Dole readily took up the mantle of censorship in the 1990s claiming the entertainment industry was threatening the nations character or some such. He might do the same in the 1980s, only this time as Vice President.
- Could we even see calls for a new version of the Hays Code to be implemented? It was only finally abandoned in 1968 after all, though this was as much due to it being unenforceable by the 1960s, but there would certainly be some calling for a Valenti Code.
- If violence in films becomes a useful scapegoat to explain the assassination of a US President might we see an equivalent of the video nasties debacle? There were certainly enough cheap slasher films in the early 1980s to fill out the list.
- Concatenating the previous two points, MPAA President Jack Valenti was one of the most virulent campaigners against home video describing it as copyright infringement. Might a new motion picture code and an American video nasties list give him the impetus to see VHS/Betamax outlawed?
- Would all this allow the major studios to reassert their control over the film industry? They already were in many ways against the director driven New Hollywood era, but with such a mainstay of that trend being seen as haivng contributed to the death of a President might it allow them to sweep the last vestiges of the 1970s tendencies? Would a new Production Code allow them to reassert some control over theatre chains refusing to allow any of their films be screened at any cinema that shows films not approved by the MPAA?
Which filmmakers would accept the new status quo, who would flounder under such an environment, and who might try their hands somewhere else? The likes of Spielberg and Lucas would enjoy continued success under the new environment, though the latter might have even more reason to keep his name of
Body Heat now. Brian De Palma might find his career stalled, with the controversy of
Dressed to Kill still fresh in peoples memory. What about directors like John Carpenter, James Cameron, Joe Dante, or John Landis? Would they try their hands out in Europe where some had worked before? Or might we see the rise of somewhere like Vancouver rise as an independent alternative to Hollywood?