Puerto Rico votes for statehood in 1993

[Ricardolindo]

What if Puerto Rico had voted for statehood in 1993? Would the US Congress have approved it? If so, what effects would this have? Would it be enough for Al Gore to win in 2000?

 

[Ricardolindo]

I should state my own opinions. I think Congress would have approved it as it was controlled by the Democrats and, anyways, there was bipartisan support for Puerto Rico statehood. As for the effect on the 2000 election, there are two problems: 1. How many electoral votes are allocated to Puerto Rico. 2. Who would win it. On one hand, Bush appealed to Hispanics. On the other hand, Hispanics still voted overwhelmingly Democratic in that election. Thus, I think Al Gore is likely to win it.

 

[Geordie]

Not that I know huge amounts about US politics, but this happening before the 1994 Gingrich Revolution seems about the last time the Republicans would be happy to let Puerto Rico in.

More than the 2000 election, I wonder what the effects of statehood on PR would be?

 

[Charles EP M.]

I wonder what the effects of statehood on PR would be?

The first thing off the top of my head is that the hurricane tearing through it would be harder for Trump (if he was in) to dismiss, because it'd be happening to a state who have congressmen in DC who can go on the telly and yell about it and demand hearings. In general, being a state gets it more attention when anything happens than if it's 'merely' a 'territory'.

 

[Ricardolindo]

Not that I know huge amounts about US politics, but this happening before the 1994 Gingrich Revolution seems about the last time the Republicans would be happy to let Puerto Rico in.

More than the 2000 election, I wonder what the effects of statehood on PR would be?

Their financial situation would probably be better.

 

[Catalunya]

I always wonder how long it would take for the national parties to fully take over Puerto Rican politics.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I always wonder how long it would take for the national parties to fully take over Puerto Rican politics.

Puerto Rico has its own political parties, but considering the reason for their existence is Puerto Rico's status, I believe that, after Puerto Rico gained statehood, they would dissolve themselves.

 

[Geordie]

Puerto Rico has its own political parties, but considering the reason for their existence is Puerto Rico's status, I believe that, after Puerto Rico gained statehood, they would dissolve themselves.

I believe that they'd swiftly* coopt themselves into the mainland party structures, to a rather large extent. Certainly, the politicians themselves won't just retire; they're going to want to keep the structures that got them into those positions.

*within a decade, likely half that time.

 

[Catalunya]

I believe that they'd swiftly coopt themselves into the mainland party structures, to a rather large extent. Certainly, the politicians themselves won't just retire; they're going to want to keep the structures that got them into those positions.

I feel like it would take 4-6 years before the original parties are no long represented in the US Congress.

 

[Geordie]

I feel like it would take 4-6 years before the original parties are no long represented in the US Congress.

I agree with that. It will take a few years for the PR politicians to find their bedfellows in DC, now that the constitutional issue has been settled.

Moreover, politics back in Puerto Rico may not converge with US politics at any near as fast a rate. I wonder how the economy of the island would be affected.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I feel like it would take 4-6 years before the original parties are no long represented in the US Congress.

I agree with that. It will take a few years for the PR politicians to find their bedfellows in DC, now that the constitutional issue has been settled.

Moreover, politics back in Puerto Rico may not converge with US politics at any near as fast a rate. I wonder how the economy of the island would be affected.

Many members of the Puerto Rican political parties (the pro-statehood PNP and the pro-commonwealth PPD) are also affiliated with the mainland political parties. Thus, I believe the transition would be pretty quick. I even believe the Puerto Rican political parties may have dissolved themselves very soon afterwards.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Not that I know huge amounts about US politics, but this happening before the 1994 Gingrich Revolution seems about the last time the Republicans would be happy to let Puerto Rico in.

More than the 2000 election, I wonder what the effects of statehood on PR would be?

It actually depends (tm). Theoretically the Republican platform still calls for PR statehood.

Also don't discount the impact of general flag-waving nationalism.

 

[Dan1988]

Many members of the Puerto Rican political parties (the pro-statehood PNP and the pro-commonwealth PPD) are also affiliated with the mainland political parties. Thus, I believe the transition would be pretty quick. I even believe the Puerto Rican political parties may have dissolved themselves very soon afterwards.

OTOH, not so fast. It's also certainly possible that Puerto Rico could end up like Québec and have a party system different from the Mainland. That's because there's more to each of those two parties than just simply the status issue, and if Puerto Rico becomes a lab for electoral reform, it's possible other parties could fill in some of the space. As it basically stood, the PNP was essentially a neoliberal party (by LatAm standards) and the PPD was an aprista party, which by the time of the Cold War were basically social-democratic parties. If you strip out the status issue, there's still plenty left for the Puerto Rican parties to continue on their own without converting it to Mainland norms - which makes it different from the last two statehood promotions, Alaska and Hawaii, insofar as the Mainland parties were already established to begin while they were both territories. As a result, Puerto Rico could instead converge onto something more typically Latin American, but on the high end of the scale where there is still a great degree of political stability. In that case, there's plenty of room to expand and include more parties, which is also just as true for 1993, and the Mainland affiliations would only count towards Federal-level votes for Congress and President (again - just like Québec).