PC/AHC: Partial failure for the Revolutions of 1989

[lerk]

An idea I think is interesting is where most revolutions in Eastern Europe fail, but there are a few countries which do manage to end communism. Is this plausible, and if so how can this be achieved?

 

[Alex Richards]

I think it's quite difficult- once the ball gets rolling and Gorbachev indicates the Soviets aren't going to crush the opposition this time, it's sort of all going to spiral out of control for the Communists, even if not the Soviet Union itself.

On the other hand if the USSR does decide to quash dissent then I can't see how they don't just roll into Poland and try and stop the whole thing, either succeeding or failing and accelerating the 'hey we can do it too' tendency.

 

[d32123]

I could easily see a scenario where the Soviet Union and much of the Eastern Bloc stays communist, but Yugoslavia/Albania/Romania are all overthrown. The latter three countries were up to their eyeballs in IMF loans and Yugo/Romania in particular were losing their grip on their societies. A non-Gorby USSR might be willing to bail Romania out but I can't imagine they'd be willing to invest the time or money in Yugoslavia and Albania once those countries go into crisis mode.

 

[Cook]

An idea I think is interesting is where most revolutions in Eastern Europe fail, but there are a few countries which do manage to end communism. Is this plausible, and if so how can this be achieved?

The Arab Spring suggests that a partial failure is an entirely possible outcome, it also suggest how that would happen.