Oppo Graphics

[moth]

Keep in mind that it’s Alan Keyes in the White House, so we see a very conservative judiciary, the FMA passing, and a bunch of talk about “moral values” coming from the White House.

Yes, but, well, to sum it up in a single question: Would Mississippi and Alabama in particular and the south in general vote for an African American President?

Because even if he's been in the White House and the Supreme Court is conservative... well, that infamous Lee Atwater quote comes to mind.

 

[Oppo]

Would Mississippi and Alabama in particular and the south in general vote for an African American President?

I would say so, given that Keyes is well on the right of the Republican Party and all of his opponents are pro-choice and social progressives. IOTL, candidates like Keyes and Carson have had strong performances in the South in their primary campaigns.

 

[AndrewH]

I would say so, given that Keyes is well on the right of the Republican Party and all of his opponents are pro-choice and social progressives. IOTL, candidates like Keyes and Carson have had strong performances in the South in their primary campaigns.

There’s a big difference between the Primaries and the General Election.

 

[moth]

I would say so, given that Keyes is well on the right of the Republican Party and all of his opponents are pro-choice and social progressives. IOTL, candidates like Keyes and Carson have had strong performances in the South in their primary campaigns.

Keyes didn't have a strong performance in the south; relative to his own performances in other states, his 2000 performances (which I assume is the one you mean because it's the only one that could be described as 'good') within the South were, at best, middling, and only broke 10% once he was the only non-George Bush shaped candidate on the ballot, and even then he was losing by enormous margins. While with Carson, beyond the obvious point that 2016 was not 1992 and the 'mood music' as it were has changed so much, I'm not sure how you can say he got a strong performance IoTL when he got stomped in the South, like he got stomped everywhere, by white nationalist candidates.

Keyes may be on the right of the Republican Party and McGovern a pro-choice liberal (and Perot did dog-shit in the South IoTL), but how many white Republicans in the South would hold their nose and vote for a black man, even if he is as right-wing as them?

 

[Turquoise Blue]

McGovern a pro-choice liberal

Eh... I'm not sure if he was that by 92. His stance in 72 was later the Republican position, namely leave it to the states

 

[moth]

Eh... I'm not sure if he was that by 92. His stance in 72 was later the Republican position, namely leave it to the states

He was beaten badly in the '80 Senate election for, in part, being pro-choice, remember.

 

[Turquoise Blue]

He was beaten badly in the '80 Senate election for, in part, being pro-choice, remember.

Oh yeah. Didn't remember that

 

[Oppo]

Keyes may be on the right of the Republican Party and McGovern a pro-choice liberal (and Perot did dog-shit in the South IoTL), but how many white Republicans in the South would hold their nose and vote for a black man, even if he is as right-wing as them?

By the end of the millennium, 95% would vote for a black presidential candidate. If you look at the data, there would be just as many (actually more) voters who had an issue with Keyes being Catholic.

Keyes has had a bunch of connections with Southern far-right politicans such as Roy Moore and Bob Jones III. He was also nominated by the segregationalist American Independent Party for president in 2008. While I’m definitely not saying that Moore or Jones aren’t racists, they were able to have close ties with other religious extremist candidates.

 

[moth]

By the end of the millennium, 95% would vote for a black presidential candidate. If you look at the data, there would be just as many (actually more) voters who had an issue with Keyes being Catholic.

You're not really addressing what I'm asking, which is: "would white Southerners in the early 90s vote for a black candidate?"

I mean yeah it's good to know that in 1999 95% of polled Americans felt comfortable enough to vote for a black man, but it's not what I'm asking you, I'm asking a very specific question about a very specific region of the US that is known for its intense issues with race, racial identity, and white supremacist reactionism within its body politic and voting trends.

Keyes has had a bunch of connections with Southern far-right politicans such as Roy Moore and Bob Jones III. While I’m definitely not saying that Moore or Jones aren’t racists, they were able to have close ties with other religious extremist candidates.

I mean okay Keyes had connections with those people, but would that have swung him the south? In an election in which a third party candidate has trounced the major party's in a state, would we not also see a third party challenge in the South, or heck even Perot try and exploit those racial issues within the South that would invariably rise from Keyes nomination?

 

[AndrewH]

Also, I doubt people will openly announce in a poll “yeah, I wouldn’t vote for a black man.”

 

[Oppo]

You're not really addressing what I'm asking, which is: "would white Southerners in the early 90s vote for a black candidate?"

Again, yes. I’ve answered that question quite a few times.

I'm asking a very specific question about a very specific region of the US that is known for its intense issues with race, racial identity, and white supremacist reactionism within its body politic and voting trends.

Given that about 40% of America lives in the South and 5% in the entire US said they would not vote for a black man (without a black president in office), it shows that white Southerns weren’t completely shut out to the idea.

If you look at Keyes’ policies and messaging, you see that he has many positions that are similar to that of the white nationalists you are talking about. Keyes has said that blacks need to have a “moral crusade” to reach prosperity, he disavowed his lesbian daughter, he believes Obama is born in Kenya and plotted with Iran to get a third term, believes that people should take up arms to attack doctors who give abortions, and a host of other things.

Trump’s neofascists supporters don’t seem to have much of an issue of his ties to Kanye West or Ben Carson because it’s politically convenient for them. The “how can I be racist if I have black friends” argument many have used applies here.

In an election in which a third party candidate has trounced the major party's in a state, would we not also see a third party challenge in the South, or heck even Perot try and exploit those racial issues within the South that would invariably rise from Keyes nomination?

In response to that question, candidates like Bo Gritz and Howard Phillips got a stronger showing, but still had issues due to disorganized campaigns and a lack of name recognition.

IOTL’s 1992, Perot had a bad handling of race relations, referring to African-Americans as “you people.” He didn’t really put much effort into dealing with African-American issues as he was really running on opposition to NAFTA and cutting the deficit. This is the same ITTL.

https://www.nytimes.com/1992/07/12/...erot-speech-gets-cool-reception-at-naacp.html

In 1996, Perot is trying to run on the left socially, with opposition to Keyes’ foreign policy and campaigns against abortion and SSM. He sees an opening with the moderate Sam Nunn on the ticket and tries to outflank him. By this time, white Southerners have growned used to a Keyes presidency (given that he took office in January 1992) and have largely approved of his policies.

Hope that clears things up.

 

[Oppo]