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Najibullah's regime survives

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
It's worth noting that Mohammad Najibullah's regime in Afghanistan, actually, outlived the Soviet Union by a few months. The main cause for its fall was that, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he received no more foreign aid. Suppose Russia and the Central Asian Republics had continued to fund him? The reason would be that they feared an Islamist Afghanistan would encourage Islamists in their own countries. As for the effects, this would have prevented Al Qaeda from using the country as a base. Would 9/11 still happen?
 
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I'm not sure Russia has the funds to do this. Between 1987 and 1991 the Soviets sent $13.2 billion in military assistance to Afghanistan (and it's important to note that this doesn't count economic assistance). Russia was flirting with bankruptcy throughout the 1990s and the state had to slash spending across the board. Russia's struggle to feed itself also means that food aid (which kept Afghanistan's cities fed) is going to basically disappear. Now, Russia could reduce their assistance rather than cut if off altogether, but it would still be such a dramatic decline that it likely cripples Najibullah's regime, which can't make up the difference.
 
I mean Russia was starting its economic collapse and general chaos; plus Yeltsin's thought that Soviet Central Asia was sucking Russia dry, and maintaining Afghanistan as Moscow implodes will be impossible politically and economically. However, no august coup could help out Najibullah last until the 90s end but to have the DRA survive needs a POD in the 70s.
 
I'm not sure Russia has the funds to do this. Between 1987 and 1991 the Soviets sent $13.2 billion in military assistance to Afghanistan (and it's important to note that this doesn't count economic assistance). Russia was flirting with bankruptcy throughout the 1990s and the state had to slash spending across the board. Russia's struggle to feed itself also means that food aid (which kept Afghanistan's cities fed) is going to basically disappear. Now, Russia could reduce their assistance rather than cut if off altogether, but it would still be such a dramatic decline that it likely cripples Najibullah's regime, which can't make up the difference.

I mean Russia was starting its economic collapse and general chaos; plus Yeltsin's thought that Soviet Central Asia was sucking Russia dry, and maintaining Afghanistan as Moscow implodes will be impossible politically and economically. However, no august coup could help out Najibullah last until the 90s end but to have the DRA survive needs a POD in the 70s.

Thing is, Russia did provide support to the Tajikistan government against the opposition that included many Islamists. I agree that Russia would certainly not provide the same level of aid as the Soviet Union but the Central Asian Republics could provide the rest. That's what happened in Tajikistan. I could see them sustaining Najibullah until he managed to strike a deal with the moderate Islamists. Remember that he had already restored Islam as the state religion and removed Marxism-Leninism from the party's ideology.
 
Thing is, Russia did provide support to the Tajikistan government against the opposition that included many Islamists. I agree that Russia would certainly not provide the same level of aid as the Soviet Union but the Central Asian Republics could provide the rest. That's what happened in Tajikistan. I could see them sustaining Najibullah until he managed to strike a deal with the moderate Islamists. Remember that he had already restored Islam as the state religion and removed Marxism-Leninism from the party's ideology.

I doubt the Central Asian republics could make up the short fall and they had other concerns at the time.

Afghanistan had no economy by the end, it was entirely funded and fed by the Soviets whilst the Americans and Pakistanis continued to fund and support the opposition that was only being kept at bay through massive firepower even as the Afghan army increasingly fragmented into militias.

The Russians could keep the Afghan government alive but only through massive subsidies and the war effort basically amounted to just firing ballistic missiles at anything that poked its head up. It was a very expensive fight and the Russians could not afford it anymore. If they kept going the Americans and Pakistanis would have as well.


Najibullah was facing a lot of criticism for the concessions he was making to the Islamists, he may well have faced a coup if he pushed it too far.
 
Thing is, Russia did provide support to the Tajikistan government against the opposition that included many Islamists. I agree that Russia would certainly not provide the same level of aid as the Soviet Union but the Central Asian Republics could provide the rest. That's what happened in Tajikistan.

Because Tajikistan was considered a security risk because of their civil war, which disrupted the post-Soviet transition there and heavily affected the development of the Central Asian republics (well, except Turkmenistan), because under the Soviet Union everything was interconnected to the point where things become problematic if you took out piece out of it. Tajikistan was a more immediate concern for Russia and neighboring Central Asian republics than neighboring Afghanistan, which after the pullout was not a place the CIS wanted to return to again. Furthermore, at the time the Caucasus conflicts in Russia were not connected at all to the Tajik conflict; no one in the Kremlin had that amount of foresight because they were more concerned with the collapse of Russian economic conditions as well as frozen conflicts that arose from the Soviet breakup. So Russia was in no shape, and neither would the other Central Asian republics because they are more concerned with equally deteriorating economic conditions and trying to establish their regimes' authority - not to mention that even together none would make up the shortfall for a lack of Russian troops and materiel.
 
Thing is, Russia did provide support to the Tajikistan government against the opposition that included many Islamists. I agree that Russia would certainly not provide the same level of aid as the Soviet Union but the Central Asian Republics could provide the rest. That's what happened in Tajikistan. I could see them sustaining Najibullah until he managed to strike a deal with the moderate Islamists. Remember that he had already restored Islam as the state religion and removed Marxism-Leninism from the party's ideology.
Central Asia isn't going to be able to contribute all that much. For example, Kazakhstan's and Uzbekistan's annual military spending in the 1990s never got above $250 million apiece, and they are the two biggest military powers in Central Asia (in terms of economic assistance Kazakhstan's total foreign aid to other countries between 1991-2017 amounted to $450 million). Again, the Soviets were sending a little over $3 billion a year in military assistance to Afghanistan, so there's zero ability for Central Asia to make up the difference once Russia cuts funding.

In addition to what @Death's Companion says about internal opposition to what Najibullah was doing making peace difficult I would add that on the mujahedeen side there was tremendous pressure from Pakistan to keep the war going till final victory. Pakistan had control of the money spigot, and repeatedly threatened to turn it off if groups started seriously negotiating with the government. This pressure is unlikely to let up, as the Inter-Service Intelligence Agency (which actually directed Pakistan's policy in Afghanistan) was determined to see Najibullah overthrown and replaced by an Islamist regime. Basically as long as Pakistan is in the picture the mujahedeen have a strong incentive not to negotiate, and even if moderates were to break with Pakistan the Islamists would still be very strong thanks to Pakistani aid.
 
I doubt the Central Asian republics could make up the short fall and they had other concerns at the time.

Afghanistan had no economy by the end, it was entirely funded and fed by the Soviets whilst the Americans and Pakistanis continued to fund and support the opposition that was only being kept at bay through massive firepower even as the Afghan army increasingly fragmented into militias.

The Russians could keep the Afghan government alive but only through massive subsidies and the war effort basically amounted to just firing ballistic missiles at anything that poked its head up. It was a very expensive fight and the Russians could not afford it anymore. If they kept going the Americans and Pakistanis would have as well.


Najibullah was facing a lot of criticism for the concessions he was making to the Islamists, he may well have faced a coup if he pushed it too far.

Because Tajikistan was considered a security risk because of their civil war, which disrupted the post-Soviet transition there and heavily affected the development of the Central Asian republics (well, except Turkmenistan), because under the Soviet Union everything was interconnected to the point where things become problematic if you took out piece out of it. Tajikistan was a more immediate concern for Russia and neighboring Central Asian republics than neighboring Afghanistan, which after the pullout was not a place the CIS wanted to return to again. Furthermore, at the time the Caucasus conflicts in Russia were not connected at all to the Tajik conflict; no one in the Kremlin had that amount of foresight because they were more concerned with the collapse of Russian economic conditions as well as frozen conflicts that arose from the Soviet breakup. So Russia was in no shape, and neither would the other Central Asian republics because they are more concerned with equally deteriorating economic conditions and trying to establish their regimes' authority - not to mention that even together none would make up the shortfall for a lack of Russian troops and materiel.
Central Asia isn't going to be able to contribute all that much. For example, Kazakhstan's and Uzbekistan's annual military spending in the 1990s never got above $250 million apiece, and they are the two biggest military powers in Central Asia (in terms of economic assistance Kazakhstan's total foreign aid to other countries between 1991-2017 amounted to $450 million). Again, the Soviets were sending a little over $3 billion a year in military assistance to Afghanistan, so there's zero ability for Central Asia to make up the difference once Russia cuts funding.

In addition to what @Death's Companion says about internal opposition to what Najibullah was doing making peace difficult I would add that on the mujahedeen side there was tremendous pressure from Pakistan to keep the war going till final victory. Pakistan had control of the money spigot, and repeatedly threatened to turn it off if groups started seriously negotiating with the government. This pressure is unlikely to let up, as the Inter-Service Intelligence Agency (which actually directed Pakistan's policy in Afghanistan) was determined to see Najibullah overthrown and replaced by an Islamist regime. Basically as long as Pakistan is in the picture the mujahedeen have a strong incentive not to negotiate, and even if moderates were to break with Pakistan the Islamists would still be very strong thanks to Pakistani aid.

Thank you 3 for your replies, which do show this scenario is implausible.
Out of curiosity, where did you get all this information?
 
Thank you 3 for your replies, which do show this scenario is implausible.
Out of curiosity, where did you get all this information?
So there's a ton of stuff that's been written about the Soviet-Afghan War, but in terms of books to read there's three in particular that I'd recommend:

Ghost Wars by Steve Coll

The Wars of Afghanistan by Peter Tomsen (who was US Special Envoy to Afghanistan from 1989 to 1992)

The Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal From Afghanistan by Artemy Kalinovsky
 
Thing is, Russia did provide support to the Tajikistan government against the opposition that included many Islamists. I agree that Russia would certainly not provide the same level of aid as the Soviet Union but the Central Asian Republics could provide the rest. That's what happened in Tajikistan. I could see them sustaining Najibullah until he managed to strike a deal with the moderate Islamists. Remember that he had already restored Islam as the state religion and removed Marxism-Leninism from the party's ideology.
Moderate Islamists such as whom, exactly? Massoud? Hekmatyar? Rabbani? Someone else?

Would al-Qaeda fight to stay in Sudan? Would they back al-Turabi against al-Bashir?
Not sure about the internal Sudan power struggle, but Yeah, Najibullah's regime--if it will actually survive, that is--is highly unlikely to invite al-Qaeda onto its territory, which means no US invasion of Afghanistan and perhaps no 9/11. Would al-Qaeda be able to completely plot 9/11 outside of Afghanistan?
 
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