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My Main Timeline: What if the Franco-Prussian war escalated?

Which direction should this TL go?

  • Choice A: Britain intervenes on Franco-Austrian side and Prussia-Russia loses

    Votes: 3 42.9%
  • Choice B: Britain stands neutral. Prussia and Russia win but Austria limps on

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Choice C: Britain stands neutral, but it's a tough war. Prussia and Russia split Austria,

    Votes: 2 28.6%
  • Other (please specify)

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    7

King of Wessex

Selina Meyer 2020
This is my main TL. I am user Taxationistheft on alt history, so here we go.
I have written Part 1 and 2.
The Balkans aren't worth the life of a single Pomeranian grenadier!’- Otto Von Bismarck, 1866.

Chapter One of the European Tragedy: The Treaty of Prague.

The War with Austria in known as Prussia as the ‘Kriegsprobe’ (War rehearsal) was swift and seemingly decisive, much in contrast of the conflict to come. Engineered by Otto Von Bismarck, this war was intended to drive out Austrian influence in Germany, to make sure that Prussia is not incorporated into some Greater German State. If German unity was to be inevitable, it must unite under Prussia, and not Austria; this war would pave the way for that, whilst making a ‘Kleindeutschland’, where Prussia- and more broadly Prussian Junkers- could dominate, possible. And at first it seemed as if the gamble worked. Although most of the German Confederation lined up against Prussia, Bismarck’s skilful diplomacy kept foreign powers out of the struggle. Prussia’s efficient and disciplined troops crushed the Austrians, already weakened by the 1859, decisively at Sadowa. But it was after that success, only 3 weeks into the war, that ruptures began to emerge.

The fruits of victory were showered too fast onto Prussia. The victory at Konnigratz opened the door to the occupation of Vienna, and after all they’d only been at war three weeks. But Bismarck already agitated for a ceasefire. The terms of this ceasefire would see Venetia ceded to Italy and Austria kicked out of German affairs entirely, but not a foot of territory would be taken from the Hapsburgs. The military and monarchical authorities both questioned this; why should Prussia respond to complete victory with such a tepid peace? Moltke was strongly against it and urged the King to continue on his advance. Bismarck implored, pleaded and supplicated; breaking down into tears and smashing objects in the room, Bismarck insisted that the King would be responsible for a horrible and bloody escalation of the war if he was to continue to advance. In what many consider to be the turning points of Prussia’s fortunate, Wilhelm I did not listen. “Any peace with the Austrians must constitute a victor’s peace, not this strange political concoction. It is insulting to Prussian honour to accept otherwise.”. Thus Moltke won out and Prussia pushed for an annexationist war against Austria and decided to continue onto Vienna, much to the incredulity of the French. Bismarck, traumatised and distraught that Wilhelm I had destroyed his intricate plans, was forced to resign. The war continued.

the war lasted only a month longer, but it set in motion a horrible chain of events. Wilhelm I got his little occupation of Vienna; the Austrians couldn’t muster enough troops to defend the city. The Prussian march through the city, memorably photograph, was to provide a permeant scar on the honour of the Austrian state. The peace treaty was harsh, both to German states that had so fatefully sided with the Austrians and to oppose Prussian expansion. Saxony and Hanover were annexed into the Kingdom of Prussia, along with Hesse-Kassel, Hesse-Darmstadt, Nassau, Saxe-Meiningen, Frankfurt, Reuss-Greiz, and Holstein. States that backed Prussia were forced into the “North German Confederation”. The South was left broadly alone. Prussia also annexed the “Saxon Corridor from Austria- a strip of territory running across Bohemia which included the town of Karslbad and Austrian Silesia. These are annexed into Prussia as the province of "New Silesia"- harking back to the days of Fredrick the Great. Venetia and some of Istria are lost to Italy.

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This Treaty caused international outcry. This railroading of tradition and vast annexations suddenly meant that the “lesser Global power” was a threat to national security for the Great Powers, especially France. France was promised a part of the Rhineland which she never received and was infuriated at this vast expansion of Prussian power; although the French army was too weak to intervene in 1866, a series of reforms initiated in 1867 onwards began to stabilise and modernise the army. The Austrian emperor, Franz Joseph, was force to sign the compromise of 1867 under domestic pressure, turning his empire into a dual monarchy. The British were worried by this upstart power too and concerned at the annexation of Hanover. Only Russia seemed to take Prussia’s side; although there were Pan-Slavic objections to this strong German power, their co-operation over Poland had conviced the Tsar that they were a better partner that the Hapsburgs, who had betrayed them in the course of the Crimean War. Moreover the Tsar was more preoccupied with the Balkans that Central Europe, and he knew a weakened Austria would give him a free hand in the Balkans. Prussia and Russia continued to work constructively.

By 1869 the French and Austrians have agreed a mutual defence pact, clearly pointing the empires towards war. The French are dead set on containing Prussia; the domestic troubles convincing Napoleon III that he needs a foreign enemy. The situation in Austria is more complex. The Hungarians lobby against war, but German liberals, who are concerned about the triumph of an illiberal Prussia, and aggravate nationalist minority who want to row back the 1867 compromise and rectify national honur after the humiliation of 1867. It’s a hard decision for Franz Joseph, but the pro-war lobby wins out. The territorial loses are too hard to bare; they will be rectified. The large indemnity payment is also causing economic suffering, fuelling worries about a revolutionary collapse of the empire; the common enemy, Prussia, is needed to bring Austria together.

The Spark for the war comes from Negotations that attempted to form the German Empire in 1870. The background to the Bavarian crisis was the Spanish Crisis, where a Prussia Hohenzollern was nearly crowned King of Spain, before backing down in the face of French pressure. Tensions were still simmering because Wilhelm I had not given a personal guarantee that he'd never endorse a Hohenzollern candidacy again, but the crisis humiliated Prussia. National opinion with Prussia was outraged. As Moltke commented wryly: "How could a nation that could defeat the Austrian Empire in 6 weeks back down to a Napoleon doppelganger's every little demand?". Wilhelm I was growing increasingly frustrated with the Franco-Austrian demands. And this brings us back to the Negotations with the Southern German states. France made it very clear during 1866 that annexations of these states would lead to war, and thus they were not incorporated into the North German Confederation. But Wilhelm I, needing a victory after the Spanish humilliation, re-opened the issue. A communique sent on the 12th September 1870 to Bavaria and the other Southern German states offered some autonomy (greater than the Northern members) if they'd agree to be part of the German Empire. However, France stepped in. France stated that they were willing to guarantee the independence of the South German states, with Austria adding that "The Austrian government, which has always shared a spiritual connection with fellow Southern German states, stands wholeheartedly in defence of Catholic Germany in response to Northern Prussian aggression". As a result, each of the states rejected membership. This was too much for Prussia. Wilhelm I summed the situation up.

"Gentlemen, I will be cowed by the Bonaparte family no longer. For all of my childhood, the French rampaged through our homeland, took our resources and starved us dry. But Prussian honour and ingenuity won the day at the miraculous victories at Leipzig and Waterloo. It was because the German people united together against common aggression, and I believe that spirit still exists. The German people will rise to this challenge. We will not accept Bonaparte's dictat."

Thus, after the failure of Negotations at London, Wilhelm I sent troops to occupy Munich, overwhelming the Bavarian forces, helped along by popular support. France declared this an attack upon her people and declared war on the 4th October 1870. Austria followed on the 7th October, saying that it would 'defend to the death the kinsmen of the Austrians', despite Hungarian opposition. The Great European War had begun.

Chapter 2: Reactions:

ART 2:

“The power of the joint blow will end this silly idea of German Unification”- Napoleon III

The Reaction:

Robbed of their chief diplomatic asset, Bismarck, the Prussians found themselves facing a war on two fronts; although Austria was weakened, France was the primary continental power in Europe and it was clear they were facing an uphill struggle. The crisis was however expedient in rallying German opinion around Prussia through the threat of French invasion and the betrayal of the Austrians. This is reflected on a speech given by Wilhelm I to the North German Parliament three weeks after the war began:

“There is no doubt that the Austrians have played the key role in the majority of the winding course of German history. But here the Hapsburgs menace has shown his true colours. Austria has sold its German soul to the common enemy of the Germans, to stop Germans uniting under one government and one system. This they have been trying to do unaltered since Napoleon. But there is hope for the German people. I know, as I have known before, the striking ingenuity and resilience of the Germans. We resisted the French for a brutal 20 years, to come out victorious despite the gross disadvantages. This, by the grace of grace, will be the spirit that will carry us forward to the great battlefields that now have to follow this act of aggression committed by the French. For God and the fatherland, all Germans will resist foreign malice, resist the marauding armies of Napoleon, and resist tyranny and despotism. Because the emperor, cowering in his capital, does not know this. The spirit of Germany will never be broken”.

This speech, widely publicised, was a rallying call. The government of North Germany was soon inundated with soldiers wishing to enlist, even from previously sceptical Hanoverians, Saxons and even New Silesians, although some began to use the war to co-ordinate regionalist resistance, especially in Hanover. The speech outraged Junkers and worried members of the government, though. Prussian identity seemed to melt under the heat of national patriotism, and Junkers fretted that their rights and privileges would be subsumed under a Greater German feeling in the case of victory. But the war was a Godsend for the struggling Prussian apparatus in their conquests, and German public opinion was firmly behind them.

In Austria, the situation was much different. Revanchists as well as German liberals, unwilling to give up the dream of unifying Germany under Austria, agitated constantly for war after the humilliations of Prague. Disgruntled Austrian citizens had blamed the Prussian indemnity extracted as a result of the Peace of Prague for the increase in the burden of taxation, and the predominantly German circle wished to used the war as an opportunity to walk back on the Compromise of 1867 and re-establish Austrian hegemony within the whole empire. However, the optics were not good for many Germans; why was Austria intervening against the national cause? The Hungarians also were extremely dissatisfied, fearing the war was a pretext to roll back the 1867 compromise. Franz Jospeh offered his personal reassurances that under no account would he row back the compromise, although many Hungarians remained susipicous. Low level resistance cropped up in Hungary and among some German groups, especially those being conscripted.

Neither Russia nor Britain joined immediately. Britain was unhappy about the potential for further Prussian expansion but was unwilling to intervene to help the French just yet. Gladstone wanted to avoid if at all possible foreign conflict. Russia was watching closely and preparing for intervention. Napoleon III, who had usurped the title of defender of Christians in the Balkans was loathed and the Austrian betrayal in Crimea not forgotten. A French-Austrian victory would bring a very real threat closer to Russian borders, but pan-Slavist opinion was turned very much against a German state. Bismarck emerged from political disgrace to be sent a special envoy to Russia and negotiations for a Prusso-Russian alliance began in earnest. But much was now resting on the Prussian military plan- known secretly as Operation Black Eagle, to knock Austria out of the war. Now it was over to Moltke.
 
This is not complete, by the way. I plan this:

From what I can see, there are two clear blocks:

Prussian block:

Prussia (Franco-Prussian War)
Russia: Austrian involvement convinces them to seize the initative in the Balkans by weakening Austria- they smell weakness by Hungarian insurrection and the failure of the compromise of 1867 following Austrian involvement, because the Hungarians believe the war is a ploy to roll back the Hungarian compromise. Hoping to gain Galicia and a free hand in the Balkans.

Possible members:

Britain (I think this is unlikely, but some have argued otherwise. Prussian expansionism did not sit well with British public opinion. The Russo-Prussian alliance means that the English probably wouldn't join, as it would directly enable Russian expansion- after Crimea, it was paramount for the british to avoid this)
Italy (again, I think this is unlikely. They could use the war to seize irredentist claims against Austria and France. BUT they would probably sit neutral to try and extract concessions. Remember, they JUST unified Italy and were keen to garner international acceptance of their Rome annexation, by far the most important. They would not risk it all in a foreign war)

French Block

France (Franco-Prussian war)
Austria (In this timeline, let's say the Treaty of Prague was harsher and Austria was forced to give up Bohemia. Austrian opinion is outraged and they are looking to rectify their position and regain prominence within Germany and undo the humiliation)

Possible:

The Ottoman Empire- To stop an ascendant Russia in the Balkans
Britain- to safeguard the balance of power, both in Germany and in the Balkans
 
I was thinking you would have the Prussians move true Belgium, thereby starting The Great War many years earlier, but this is also good.

Thanks :)! I was trying to avoid the march through Belgium because at this point the Prussians wouldn’t have deliberately antagonised the British. I intend for the British to intervene though, to preserve their influence and balance of power
 
Thanks :)! I was trying to avoid the march through Belgium because at this point the Prussians wouldn’t have deliberately antagonised the British. I intend for the British to intervene though, to preserve their influence and balance of power
Wonder if this can save Napoleon III reign ore we see a new French revolution in the future.
 
Part 3 I plan:
March on Trier by French forces (rebuffed by Prussians)
Schiellefen in reverse (German invading Austria to knock it out of the war)
Prussians halted outside Vienna
Stalemate begins
 
Well we need a enemy to start the Great War with Germany and the United Kingdom teaming up.


Currently planning to have Russia join the Prussians ("the Crimean betrayal" by Austria, prospect of free hand in the Balkans) and British join the French (hostility to disruption of th ebalance of power by Prussia, Near East worries in the case of Russia)
 
We do need the Russian Empire from collapsing, one Soviet France is already bad enough, maybe having the Russian Empire become a early version of the Russian Republic who has stable relations with the German Empire but has cold relations with the Japanese Empire due them annexing part of former Russian Far East.
 
I am taking notes for on this so i can learn to write tl s.:eek:


Thank you! t's pretty terrible because it's my first ever TL (also it has been through severe scrutiny on the sister site). Seriously, I'm not convinced of this timeline myself....

I'd probably look at many of the excellent TLs on this site before using mine. I'm not writing in the usual style, I'm attempting to write it like small pieces from a history book and not a story/narrative as some people do.

Gosh that was a surprise. Thanks :)
 
We do need the Russian Empire from collapsing, one Soviet France is already bad enough, maybe having the Russian Empire become a early version of the Russian Republic who has stable relations with the German Empire but has cold relations with the Japanese Empire due them annexing part of former Russian Far East.


Could a communist revolution happen before the levels of industrialisation that were seen in 1917?
 
37 minutes ago
#3


Part 3: Moltke's Plan (NEW!)

The odds where against Prussia. The government had the good sense to realise that continuning looses would mean that more and more powers would pick over the Prussian corprse. A bold plan was hatched.

Austria was much weakened by her defeat in 1866. As much as they had attempted to revoer in 4 years, the defeats to France in 1859 and more decisively to Prussia in 1866 meant the Austrian army was nowhere near the strength of the French.

But time was the enemy. Every month Austria remained in the war, the stronger relatively they would get. They would become more and more of a hindrance.

A bold plan was hatched. Moltke would use most of his troops to march on Vienna and knock Austria out of the war, as they would be forced to sue for peace. It would certainly have the benefit of a significant degree of surprise. It was expected that the Prussians would mobilse defensively against the French. The Austrians, therefore, would be caught totally off guard. With the Austrians dealt with in the South, all the forces could be dealt with against Napoleon. In the meantime, the Prussians would occupy Baden and pressure Bavaria and others to join the war to help against the French, but try and hold a defensive line until the freed up forces arrived. If necessary, supplementary advances would be made towards Budapest, perhaps to inspire revolt.

It would be an almighty gamble with bad optics; a defensive war looks immediately like an invasion.

But the King was willing, fatefully, to roll the dice.




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