Moving the British capital (and political demographics?) north in an Axis victory scen

[Coiler]

So I've long had this itch for a soft but-not-as-soft-as-some AH where it's the classic Axis victory, but Britain just threw in the towel and had a cease-fire while remaining politically opposed to the Reich. The fear of invasion and attack becomes greater, and England increasingly becomes an armed camp (tons of fortifications and barriers in the south, National Service continues uncontroversially, the Home Guard isn't a tossed-aside anachronism but a current organization, etc...).

Now what I wanted to ask the people of this board far, far more knowledgeable about British politics than me is:

1. The effects of moving the government and capital to somewhere north of London. Like Seoul near the DMZ, there's a fear London would be too close to bombs and missiles and giant cannons and all sorts of wunderwaffe. The seat of government would (for the sake of the story) move to Manchester. How out-there is this, and what ripple effects would this have?
2. Finally, the real meaty British political question: How would the political demographics of Southern England change if it becomes a fortified bastion with the occasional clash and a giant army on the other side of the channel?

Sorry if this sounds too weird, it's just gotten into my mind.

 

[rfmcdonald]

One major issue, if southern England becomes an armed camp and large amounts of industry and population are being shipped north, is the question of how the UK.can afford this. Between the reengineering of the human geography of the UK and the degree of militarization you are talking about, this will be costly. Living standards will be hurt.

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Harrogate was where they had in mind if there was fighting in southern England I believe. Same logic as Vichy really- major spa town has lots of big hotels which can be converted quickly into Government ministries and lots of theatres, concert halls etc which can house the national legislature.

 

[Time Enough]

The effects of moving the government and capital to somewhere north of London. Like Seoul near the DMZ, there's a fear London would be too close to bombs and missiles and giant cannons and all sorts of wunderwaffe. The seat of government would (for the sake of the story) move to Manchester. How out-there is this, and what ripple effects would this have?

I would probably say Birmingham or York have greater chance to become the ‘new capital’ to be fair. Birmingham because it’s a major transport hub in the centre of Britain, has a variety of buildings that could be easily converted and all that and is probably the closest thing to a British New York as it were. York because of the cultural significance (I believe York has been tossed around a few times as the base for a second capital and all that).

I would probably put the odds on Birmingham, more connections, industry and history that could be used to help deal with the coming storm and all that.

 

[Coiler]

Thanks for all the feedback so far. I like Harrogate as an "oddball" choice.

One major issue, if southern England becomes an armed camp and large amounts of industry and population are being shipped north, is the question of how the UK.can afford this. Between the reengineering of the human geography of the UK and the degree of militarization you are talking about, this will be costly. Living standards will be hurt.

Since this is a soft setting anyway, a lot of the macroeconomics can easily be handwaved aside with references to "American aid", but yes, the living standards compared to postwar OTL would definitely be substantially lower.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Birmingham is probably it - big city, historic, still an industrial player.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

One major issue, if southern England becomes an armed camp and large amounts of industry and population are being shipped north, is the question of how the UKcan afford this.

Presumably trade within the Empire would resume, without the threat of attacks on the British merchant fleet by the Japanese and Italians.

 

[Von Callay]

Accepting and setting aside for a moment that Nazi diplomacy is entirely mercurial and given to casually disposing of any and all guarantees and agreements, to what extent is moving the capital perceptible as a hostile act in a cease-fire scenario? Fortifying the country against invasion in a continuation of pre-ceasefire activities doesn't necessarily signal an interest in resuming hostilities, but moving the capital wholesale is a dramatic and perhaps provocative act.

Wanting to undertake this action subtly might have an influence on the hows and whys of decision-making an execution.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Presumably trade within the Empire would resume, without the threat of attacks on the British merchant fleet by the Japanese and Italians.

Much of the pre-war money would've been from trading with Europe or the US. If we're not trading with the continent post-war, we'll have a problem or we'll be doing sneaky stuff with neutral countries, "here's those goods you ordered, Sweden, I hope you aren't selling any on to Nazis [wink]"

 

[Incognitia]

I like Harrogate - it's off the wall, but has a logic to it at the same time.

 

[Delta Force]

The vast majority of countries lack the defensive depth to make moving key industries and command and control infrastructure worthwhile after 1945. That's a luxury only the PRC, Soviet Union/Russia, and the United States have. Australia and Canada would likely have early warning of an attack too but they likely aren't in a position to do much about it.

The historical Cold War was fairly stable because the Soviet Union and United States were large states far away from each other. Having two small and hostile nuclear powers right next to each other is a very unstable arrangement since there is a real possibility that a first strike could be successfully executed.

Given these limitations the most important thing to do is to ensure that a massive nuclear second strike capability exists. Germany might be able to destroy the United Kingdom, but the United Kingdom will destroy Germany as well.