Maximilian I dies on the Asiago Plateau

[zaffre]

A lot of PODs center around "saving" an extinct dynasty, but the Hapsburgs, subject of this post, came awfully close to crisis right before their moment of greatest triumph - Charles V, who inherited a country from each grandparent and established the first empire on which the sun never set, was, not coincidentally, at the moment of his election to Emperor one of two male Hapsburgs alive, having inherited so many of their Austrian domains in large part because every branch but for him and his brother had died off. A somewhat blunt POD here would be "both of them die" but a subtler way to look at it is - what if Charles inherits it all too early? Namely, if his (routinely overlooked) grandfather Maximilian I does not live long enough to pass Austria and the HRE to his eighteen-year-old grandson in 1519 but instead dies over a decade earlier - in battle - when Charles is seven.

Luckily enough there *was* such a battle, because if you throw a dart it hits a year Maximilian I fought somewhere, in a Cimbrian-speaking part of the mountains north of Venice. Brief backstory: Maximilian wanted to be crowned Emperor in Rome (he also wanted to become Pope in Rome which is, er, a different POD) and after being proclaimed Emperor-elect in Trent used this as a pretext to march in force through the Republic of Venice. Venice itself was not a massive fan of this, and after stalling his initial advance in four days, beat off all subsequent attacks and promptly invaded Austria, winning a humiliating peace treaty that lasted for around a year because this was the final straw in convincing the rest of western Europe to gang up on and permanently cripple Venice.

So let's say that Max gets unlucky and is killed in the initial skirmishing in the mountain passes in Feb. 1508, 1-4 days after the proclamation in Trent (we know the specific timing, oddly enough, because Machiavelli was then at the height of his diplomatic career and at that exact time seeking an audience with him) which will look very inauspicious for any future Emperors-being-crowned-outside-of-Rome, throw the Austrian forces into even greater disarray, and mean that Austria itself has just been inherited by the child lord of the Netherlands.

But not the HRE.

See, and this is the kicker - HRE elections were *practically* hereditary but not *actually* hereditary, and with Charles both foreign and seven (and his brother four), and no adult Hapsburg men at all, he goes from being the inevitable winner (in 1519) to practically a non-contender. The other foreign options have shifted as well - Louis XII is King of France and Henry VII is King of England, although my gut take is that Henry VII is too paranoid (and stingy) to be a serious contender, while the main German option would still seem to be Frederick the Wise of Saxony, who may have declined in Charles' favor IOTL (and later defended Martin Luther) but doesn't really have that luxury now - but the electors of Brandenburg and the Palatinate (and the king of Bohemia) should probably also be considered. And this not only nips the Ganging Up On VeniceWar of the League of Cambrai in the bud and gives the Venice a momentary reprieve - but transforms Charles from Emperor to grudging, overmighty vassal, and (depending on who wins the election) has absolutely massive consequences on European religion and history for the next five hundred years.

So who wins?

 

[Alex Richards]

Also, just to add to this, in 1509 the House of Habsburg has only, in fact, had two Emperors- Frederick III who had been King of the Germans since 1440 and died in 1493, and his son Maximilian I who had been king of Germany since 1486 and had spent the time since 1493 negotiating with the Pope.

So it would be considered completely fine to just ditch the Habsburgs.

As for the candidates, the Palatinate was currently under the Imperial Ban as a consequence of the War of the Landshut Succession- it would take till 1518 historically for the Elector to regain his status- I can't recall if the Palatinate would even have been able to take part in the succession. Vladislaus II of Bohemia was also King of Hungary and had the twin problems of being unable to raise sufficient funds for the army to defend against the Ottomans, and also having been the Hussite-backed candidate when he came to the throne.

So the domestic situation resolves down to either Joachim I of Brandenburg or Frederick III of Saxony. The latter would probably have the backing of the Pope and the former was quite focussed on his administration in the early part of the reign- it's quite feasible he'd have backed Frederick at this point.

 

[Nyvis]

It may be a side theater to the election but I really want to hear about where Venice can take things from there.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

I'm curious as to what happens in the Low Countries.

 

[Nyvis]

Without the empire to manage, I expect the low countries remain the main preoccupation for the Habsburgs?

 

[zaffre]

Also, just to add to this, in 1509 the House of Habsburg has only, in fact, had two Emperors- Frederick III who had been King of the Germans since 1440 and died in 1493, and his son Maximilian I who had been king of Germany since 1486 and had spent the time since 1493 negotiating with the Pope.

So it would be considered completely fine to just ditch the Habsburgs.

As for the candidates, the Palatinate was currently under the Imperial Ban as a consequence of the War of the Landshut Succession- it would take till 1518 historically for the Elector to regain his status- I can't recall if the Palatinate would even have been able to take part in the succession. Vladislaus II of Bohemia was also King of Hungary and had the twin problems of being unable to raise sufficient funds for the army to defend against the Ottomans, and also having been the Hussite-backed candidate when he came to the throne.

So the domestic situation resolves down to either Joachim I of Brandenburg or Frederick III of Saxony. The latter would probably have the backing of the Pope and the former was quite focussed on his administration in the early part of the reign- it's quite feasible he'd have backed Frederick at this point.

Do you know if / why Frederick declined it historically in 1519? He was certainly a plausible alternative to Francis and Charles (and the Pope’s choice, ironically, like you say) and I can find some sources about debts being repaid but nothing really worth crowning Charles over.

Obviously Luther is when things go completely off the rails but I do also wonder what Frederick’s first decade as Emperor looks like.

It may be a side theater to the election but I really want to hear about where Venice can take things from there.

Maximilian dying at a convenient moment gives Venice time but not security, exactly. Their neighbors are still cumulatively envious of the territories they have, and as of 1508 I think the Republic has been punching above its weight for a while - that said, the Hapsburgs taking it in the chin and being (temporarily?) demoted is a huge boon just in terms of forestalling a coalition as massive as Cambrai.

 

[Nyvis]

Maximilian dying at a convenient moment gives Venice time but not security, exactly. Their neighbors are still cumulatively envious of the territories they have, and as of 1508 I think the Republic has been punching above its weight for a while - that said, the Hapsburgs taking it in the chin and being (temporarily?) demoted is a huge boon just in terms of forestalling a coalition as massive as Cambrai.

Also the empire's succession becoming contested again is going to drain coffers for bribes and keep people busy quite a bit.

But yeah Venice is probably still going to need something decisive to change its situation.

 

[lerk]

So the domestic situation resolves down to either Joachim I of Brandenburg or Frederick III of Saxony. The latter would probably have the backing of the Pope and the former was quite focussed on his administration in the early part of the reign- it's quite feasible he'd have backed Frederick at this point.

Both Brandenburg and Saxony would become Protestant later on IOTL, which does bring up an interesting question. Is a Protestant HRE possible at all? I suppose that it is equally, if not more, likely that if either the Hohenzollern or Wettin Dynasties became the head of the HRE then they just remain Catholic so as to not cause such a firestorm in the European political sphere at the time, than it is for them to just flip Protestant at a time when the religion has just begun. Very likely that Protestantism isn't as strong as it was IOTL since in this scenario they would not have gained a base in northern Germany.

 

[Nyvis]

Both Brandenburg and Saxony would become Protestant later on IOTL, which does bring up an interesting question. Is a Protestant HRE possible at all? I suppose that it is equally, if not more, likely that if either the Hohenzollern or Wettin Dynasties became the head of the HRE then they just remain Catholic so as to not cause such a firestorm in the European political sphere at the time, than it is for them to just flip Protestant at a time when the religion has just begun. Very likely that Protestantism isn't as strong as it was IOTL since in this scenario they would not have gained a base in northern Germany.

Are we expecting Luther to get the exact same treatment with a different emperor though? The whole betrayal and martyrdom may not happen.

That or Luther get discredited as the leading figure of protestantism because his pro establishment arguments fall flat when no prince is following. Might result in something more overtly militant as the recognized form of protestantism? Hussite style.

Especially with an emperor having a smaller domain to draw from to try fighting it back.

 

[Alex Richards]

Do you know if / why Frederick declined it historically in 1519? He was certainly a plausible alternative to Francis and Charles (and the Pope’s choice, ironically, like you say) and I can find some sources about debts being repaid but nothing really worth crowning Charles over.

Ironically it's probably because he was keen on increasing the power of the Electors, and the remaining princes, against the Emperor.

Also, at the time Frederick III had been nominated by Maximilian as his designated Representative in the Empire.

So, genuinely, I think it's Frederick III except that I'm not sure he ever actually wanted to be Emperor.

 

[OwenM]

Both Brandenburg and Saxony would become Protestant later on IOTL, which does bring up an interesting question. Is a Protestant HRE possible at all? I suppose that it is equally, if not more, likely that if either the Hohenzollern or Wettin Dynasties became the head of the HRE then they just remain Catholic so as to not cause such a firestorm in the European political sphere at the time, than it is for them to just flip Protestant at a time when the religion has just begun. Very likely that Protestantism isn't as strong as it was IOTL since in this scenario they would not have gained a base in northern Germany.

I'm not sure it would be seen that way at that point. The Emperor disagreeing with the Pope on theology and on the relative statuses of the Pope and Emperor is hardly an unprecedented situation, after all.

 

[Alex Richards]

What would also complicate matters with Luther is that both the Electors of Brandenburg and Saxony were attempting to get a relative nominated as Archbishop-Elector of Mainz - putting them in charge of the handing out of indulgences in the Empire. Historically Joachim of Brandenburg managed to get his brother the job and ended up as a staunch Catholic demanding the enforcement of the Edict of Worms, while Frederick of Saxony failed and, being unable to raise any funds through this mechanism, ended up forbidding the sale of indulgences within the Electorate and promoting Luther. Both of course had large debts so being able to claim a share of church wealth was quite beneficial.