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Makemakean Does Various Graphical Things!

Okay, so now I need to generate some raw data for how the different parties are in the different parts of Sweden, which I can then randomize after a certain algorithm I've developed, which takes into account such notions as swinginess, and contention, and, well... I'll explain that later.

Still, I need some raw data to use as the underlying data set, and so I decided to steal a page from @Thande and his wonderful scheme of US-to-Canada and vice versa.

I've long since decided that the Hats are going to be modelled on the American Whigs, and then later on the early Republican party, so for middle Sweden, how about I do that using different states in America and how congressional elections went there in the 19th century?

I'm not sure at all about this classification (other than thinking Massachusetts for Uppsala county is a pretty clever idea). @Ares96, this is basically your area of expertice. What modifications would you suggest?

sweden_as_us_first_try.png
 
So, I've been in touch with the good people at the Library of the Swedish Bureau of Patents and Registries (Patent och Registreringsverket), and for some reason, they actually have very detailed electronic resources on the votes on county level in American presidential and gubernatorial elections in the 19th century. Why would a Swedish government agency dealing almost entirely with intellectual property law have access to such resources? Well, the librarians explained to me that the Library doesn't really buy their electronic resources on a title-by-title basis. Usually, they just buy entire packages, of which only a fraction are things that are of interest from an intellectual property angle, and then they just get an awful lot of access to additional information that is entirely useless for their purposes.

But not useless to mine!

So, what am I going to do?

Well, the problem I have with generating election results is that I want them to be, how do I put this... plausible-looking. Now, for a given single election, it would be pretty easy to come up with a good plausible-looking result. Take for instance, shall we say... ah! The Scanian constituency of Jerrestad och Albo. Prior to the advent of 19th century and social democracy and all that jazz, the FPTP-constituency it more or less corresponds to in the old Swedish system was first a staunchly Free Trade-district, and then a fiercely Liberal Coalition Party district. Consequently, it seems plausible that in 1867, they're a fairly strong Cap district. So, let's say we have a result of...

Jerrestad och Albo
Population: 23,763 Total Votes: 5,465

Cap 4,003 73.2%
Hat 1,462 26.8%

CAP VICTORY

Maj. 2,541 46.5%

Now that looks reasonable, does it not?

But that's the problem, it looks reasonable as a single data point. I'm going to need to have around 200 data points for Sweden, and it doesn't matter if every single data point looks reasonable. If the distribution of those data points do not follow a normal distribution, everything is completely and utterly bonkers! All I've accomplished then is to lose the war despite winning every battle.

And I have reason to be concerned, for humans are terrible random number generations.

So how am I going to accomplish this then? Why, by stealing electoral results from elsewhere!

In a way.

To give a very simplistic example (I will of course be using more data than this later!), Scania perhaps can be likened unto Cornwall. So let's take a fairly Liberal stronghold in Cornwall from the 19th century and look at the elections there where there were both Liberals and Conservatives on the ballot! Bodmin is a good example! It was so strongly Liberal, that in many elections, there were two Liberals standing for the place in a given election, and the Conservative candidate came a distant third. Of course, this changed when Gladstone began pushing for Irish Home Rule and the constituency became a marginal seat between the Liberals and the Liberal Unionists, but bear with me... We have four data points here. We calculate the average and the stand deviation when it comes to the Liberal percentage, we construct a normal distribution based on this data, take a random number according to the probabilities such a normal distribution follows...

liberal_standard_deviation.png

...and presto!


Jerrestad och Albo
Population: 23,763 Total Votes: 5,465

Cap 3,610 66.1%
Hat 1,855 33.9%

CAP VICTORY

Maj. 1,755 32.1%

Now that looks reasonable, does it not?

But as I am using actual election results as the foundation here, and generating random numbers according to a normal distribution in the first place, this time, when it comes to the actual spread of the data, it is more likely to resemble a good, reasonable outcome of a general election!

This is of course not what @Thande did for Canada/US, but it is inspired by it. Now, I just need to find election results that I can use for my data set, and that will entail finding a set of historical constituencies, probably several in different combinations, and use that information to generate a big bunch of averages and standard deviations for the various constituencies in this our fictitious Nordic Empire!

Parts will be taken from England in the 19th century, parts from America in the 19th century, and with that data at my hands, we shall indeed soon enough have our election results! :D
 
It took some time for me to figure out how I were to model Småland.

On the one hand, I kind of was thinking of following a scheme of:

Götaland = Parts of England
Svealand+Norrland (with a few exceptions) = Northern United States.

But the thing with Småland is that despite its central location in southern Sweden, it was actually one of the last parts of Sweden to get properly settled, which can be told from the fact that most towns in Småland came around first after industrialization and then only because they built a railroad junction at that point. When me and @Ares96 went over the population statistics of Småland in 1880, we discovered that many Smålandian towns we know today barely had any population at all back then, and the reason is quite clear: they hadn't built railroads back then.

This very late settlement in Småland, at least inner Småland, made me feel that it was more appropriate to statistically model it after the United States.

So why did it take so long for people to properly settle in Småland?

Well, it has to do a lot with the fact that Småland is, frankly, terrible for agriculture. Oh sure, on a nice day, when the sun is shining and the sky is clear, Småland looks like a paradise, the very paradise all Swedes know and treasure in their hearts, raised as they are on the children's stories of Astrid Lindgren. But beneath that joyous vision of green pastures, the Småland of Emil in Lönneberga, a darker Småland lies hidden: the Småland of Kristina and Karl-Oskar.

A Småland where the soil is simply too full of rocks, left behind by the retracting ices eons back, to be proper for agriculture. A Småland were countless families fell into despair and financial ruin. A Småland were people came, only to find their hopes and dreams smashed against the rocks lurking beneath the ground.

And, as @Redolegna will already have guessed, that's when I realized what part of the United States it was that Småland resembles...

...Småland is the Swedish analogue of the Texas Hill Country.
 
Speaking with my parents:

”Though I don’t think it’s too unfair to model Närke after Vermont. I mean, after all, they do have the Green Mountains in Vermont, so there’s got be some resemblance of Bergslagen-... Vermont... Green Mountains... Vert mont... Ah.”
 
Alex Richards said:
So the 1960s will see Chancellor Lynd B. Johansson?
Click to expand...

A Smålandian Social Democrat in the 60s seems oddly appropriate. I would have to think a little more about how to properly translate LBJ to Sweden. But definitely a fellow from a poor Smålandian family would be the right way to go...
 
While @Ares96 is doing the map proper, I am going to do a few blowups for the more difficult places where I really need to think constituency by constituency to figure out what the balance should be. So here I did Värmlands län:

vaermland.png

The Skepticals used to be pretty strong on the otherwise very Cap-ish Värmlandian countryside, but the Skepticals are a strange bunch. They were never quite able to take a coherent view on Nordic Reunification, though not opposed, it was hardly something they were particularly enthusiastic about. In the first federal election, they are actually feeling very few candidates, no more than a dozen. This doesn't mean that the Skeptical Party is coming to an end. They're a dormant latent force, waiting for their next moment. Like a political guerilla, when the enemy advances they retreat.

Constituencies:

1. Älvdal. The late Erik Gustaf Geijer, who took the old Crown Party and reformed it into the Skeptical Party in the early 1830s, originally came from Älvdal. Though he himself had Uppsala town as his seat (which too remains a Skeptical stronghold), Älvdal was the seat of his younger brother Johan Christoffer Geijer. The latter Geijer is still alive, now 75 years of age, and he is standing for the first Nordic Unionsdag. Despite facing both Hat and Cap challengers, nobody is expecting him to lose. Älvdal is safely Skeptical.

2. Fryksdal. With its two representatives, the Skepticals are fielding one candidate i Fryksdal. They are generally expected to get the one seat they seek. The Caps will in all probability get the other. Here on the countryside, the Hats are weak.

3. Jösse. The Skepticals aren't standing here. Had they, they might have been able to give the Caps a run for their money. As it is, it looks likely to be a fairly safe Cap victory.

4. Gilberg, Näs, och Nordmark. Two member seat. Both Skepticals and Hats have fielded one candidate. While the Caps will likely get one of the seats, it's basically a three way contest for the second seat as the Caps have fielded two candidates for the constituency.

5. Karlstad och Grum. The Skepticals aren't fielding anyone here, so it's a straight Hat/Cap race. The Caps have the upper hand, and it would be a minor upset if the Hats won.

6. Nyed och Kil. Now we're entering Bergslagen proper. This is Hat heartland. They are expected a comfortable victory margin in a straight Hat/Cap race.

7. Färnebo. Again Hat heartland. A comfortable Hat majority to be expected in a straight Hat/Cap race.

8. Visnum, Ölme, och Väse. This is actually Robert Falkvinge's constituency! Again, a Hat victory is to be expected in a straight Hat/Cap race.
 
I don’t actually think any part of Värmland other than Färnebo can be properly described as Bergslagen, but it doesn’t feel unlikely that the mix of mill towns and small forest holdings in the eastern half of the province would lean toward the Hats.
 
smaoland.png

Okay so here is (most of) Småland.

Here's my reasoning:

1-5: When looking over maps for the Riksdag elections in OTL for this part of Småland, I discovered that for reasons I have yet to be able to put my finger on this area tended to be very pro-protectionist parties. It seems reasonable that they would have the same streak this time around as well, and so they are Hat-leaning, to Hat-Cap marginal. The further inland you get in the constituency, the more pro-Cap elements you find, the further toward the coast you get, the more pro-Hat elements are to find.

6-9: Kronoberg County, now this is, as the other Max put it, Darkest Småland. The forests here are thick and always have been, the soil is full of rocks and the area is not good for farming. The whole area is generally difficult to settle, so much so that this was where the ancient border between Denmark and Sweden went, not down by the strait. Historically, the Other Max has informed me, the Swedish state church had a very firm grip on this area, and most farmers who lived here had small plots of land and lived a hand-to-mouth existence. My reasoning here is that the Hats generally stand not a snowball's chance in Hell of winning anyway, and so don't both running. People are generally said to be voting the way that their local pastor tells them to vote. So, we're looking at around 60-70% Cap, 30-40% Skeptical. As constituencies 7-9 are two member constituencies, this gives the Skepticals an opening here. The question is if those constituencies will return two Caps, or one Cap and one Skeptical.

10-14: Still petty farmers, but there is no strong connection to the Skeptical establishment here. Basically a bunch of single-member constituencies where it's pretty clear that the Caps will win. The contests here are either between two Caps, or between a Cap that easily wins over a Hat.

15-16: This area used to be Protectionist in OTL in the late 19th century. Hence, they're Cap/Hat marginals here.
 
Okay, so here we have Skåneland, which consists of the three provinces of Scania, Blekinge, and Halland:

scanialand22.png

They have not just the headquarters for the Nordic Imperial Baltic Navy in Karlskrona, but indeed the main offices of the College of the Admiralty at that very town. Over the years, the Hats have poured a lot of money into that region to make it able to accommodate a large military base, and, providing jobs for the locals, as well as Björnstjerna's reforms in the 1830s having given soldiers the right to vote, Eastern Blekinge is a Hat stronghold. Otherwise, Scania is firm Cap country. There are the two exceptions of Ingelstad and Torna och Frosta. The latter can trace its Skeptical presence from the university at Lund, from which the national romanticism has spread that lies at the heart of Nordic skepticalism. As for Ingelstad, well, the wealthy landowners there just happens to be Skepticals rather than Caps for reasons that would probably require long interviews with the gentlemen in question to get to the bottom with.

And, well, in this election, the Caps have split, a consequence of six years of composition government with the Hats. The so-called Unionist Caps in blue, wishes to continue cooperating with the Hats even after this election. While the Hats wouldn't have a chance in hell down here, the Unionists Caps do, and the Hats have helpfully elected not to field any candidates in most countryside constituencies. Who knows how it will go in these all of a sudden marginal Cap/Unionist Cap constituencies?
 
While in all likelihood the finished map is going to look like a massive Cap landslide, it's worth remembering that most mandates are located in Svealand, which leans Hat.

Specifically, here's a map that gives a better understanding of the distribution of (countryside) seats in Sweden:

map_for_reference.png
 
I promised @Ares96 that I could get reasonably looking constituencies in Holstein following the old borders and population data, and by God, I shall accomplish it! It will in all likelihood take a little longer to accomplish than I originally expected...

holsteiner_ridings.png

Three seats for Holstein done. 18 more to go.
 
Makemakean said:
I promised @Ares96 that I could get reasonably looking constituencies in Holstein following the old borders and population data, and by God, I shall accomplish it! It will in all likelihood take a little longer to accomplish than I originally expected...

View attachment 5739

Three seats for Holstein done. 18 more to go.
Click to expand...

By the time you're done, do you expect to be dead, mad or amnesiac?
 
Redolegna said:
By the time you're done, do you expect to be dead, mad or amnesiac?
Click to expand...

Somewhere between dead and mad I reckon.

I have to say that the discovery me and @Ares96 have made so far that I enjoy the most is that the border between the Nordic Empire and the Free City of Hamburg will actually go through a number of neighbourhoods, slicing through Hamburg, in all probability cut through a couple of houses even.

But don’t worry, I’m not going to go for a Nordic Iron Curtsin here. Instead I’m going to recycle something I first learned a few werks ago, and that was that back during the Holy Roman Empire, the borders were so crazy that it was actually not unheard of that some buildings lay partially in one fiefdom and partially in another. This was used for everything from smuggling operations to other things.

In particular, I intend for there to be one inn located on the border in esstern Altonia, where the rooms are located in the Nordic Empire, while the bar, of course, is located in Hamburg.

Naturally, both the Mayor and Chief of Police in Altonia are loyal patrons of this particular inn.
 
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