2010-2015: David Cameron (Conservative)
def. 2010 (Liberal Democrats Coalition): Gordon Brown (Labour), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats)
2015-2016: Nigel Farage (UKIP) [1]
def. 2015 (Minority): Ed Miliband (Labour), David Cameron (Conservative), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Nick Clegg (Liberal Democrats)
2016-2016: Paul Nuttall (UKIP) [2]
2016-20??: Ed Miliband (Labour)
def. 2016 (Liberal Democrats Coalition with SNP supply/confidence): Michael Gove (Conservative), Nicola Sturgeon (SNP), Paul Nuttall (UKIP), Tim Farron (Liberal Democrats), Douglas Carswell (Libertarian)
1- The news hit Britain like fist to the stomach- on the morning of the 8th of May 2015, the Conservative Party had been defeated in a polling upset. But not by their old rivals Labour, or even their older ones and their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats. Instead the defeat of David Cameron, the Coalition, and the Big Society came not at the hands of familiar enemies, but at the hands of a different kind of entity altogether: UKIP. Positively beaming at the count in his new seat of Thanet South in the early hours of the 8th, Nigel Farage declaring boldly that he intended to bring Britain kicking and screaming into its new political reality. Of course, UKIP failed to cross the line; for all their faults the Conservatives had held their heads above the water at some 126 seats. With only 288, UKIP were undoubtedly the largest party in Parliament (and one with a membership of barely any experience outside of the European Parliament and Councils) but were at a minority of some 38 seats. Still, this did not deter Farage, and after several days of frigid talks, he was able to hammer a working agreement with members the Conservative Party. Not anything official; Cameron and Osborne were blunt to their smug opponent he would get nothing out of them or their successors. But Farage wrangled some 40 Tory backbenchers who could be relied upon to abstain or vote with the new Government at the Queen's Speech and in future votes. And so a Government was formed.
As a famous passage in a history textbook would put it so eloquently some years later, the UKIP Government was like a:
new born horse running the grand national. As noted, there was little experience in the ranks of UKIP, and of the great offices only the new Chancellor, Mike Reckless, had Parliamentary experience. Diane James and James Carver, Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary respectively, had served in the European Parliament, but both had done so for less than a year before they found themselves on the green seats of Government. Still, they could fall back on the Civil Service, and for guiding light at the unexpected victory, the more unsure could also fall back on the Manifesto. Setting to work, key pledges, such as those regarding immigration and welfare reform, were implemented. Promises on the NHS and in social care were placed on the backburner, with Nuttall, now the Health Secretary, given a personal fiefdom in the Department of Health and Social Care to experiment as he saw fit. James set forward a rollback on criminal rights, while Carver sent prickly messages to the EU and sticking his nose towards the middle east; one of the more surprising moments would come with the recognition of Somaliland. Reckless began amassing the Autumn Statement, and Education would see major restructuring to reflect a 'patriotic education'. No one was good in their role, indeed incompetence was rife and simple mistakes were made everyday. But for Farage, all this was white noise compared to his white whale: Europe. Upon entering office, he was in a unique position, with the ability to trigger Article 50 at any moment he so desired. Although promising to do it on his first day, Farage was nothing if not a showman, and he wanted to have fun, to mess with Juncker and the Establishment, and to keep people in suspense and show everyone who doubted him. According to close sources, he knew when he would personally trigger it, despite some reports, and perhaps, for the sake of his Government, he should have triggered Article 50 as soon as he stepped through the threshold of Number 10.
Frustrated by the lack of communication between him and the Parliamentary Party with Farage over Article 50, Douglas Carswell sought to outmanoeuvre the Government by introducing a Private Members Bill for a Referendum on Europe. As the harsh social policy faced backlash, protests of an unprecedented scale ruptured the country. The larger personalities in the party were also becoming restless: Reckless undertook a programme of mass economic deregulation that would make Thatcher blush, whilst Nuttall, in his capacity as First Secretary, began throwing his weight around. Farage, for all his vapid showmanship, pinned everything together, but it was beginning to fray around him as admiration and loyalty turned to resentment and bitterness. Article 50, which he promised would be triggered any day now, was becoming the main sticking point in the Parliamentary Party, many on the relative left of UKIP seeing it as his chance to gloat, while those on the right saw it as an inconeviable betrayal of the core values of the Party. Poor performances by Farage against Ed Miliband at PMQs would do little to help, with the 40 Conservatives now feeling unnerved by him as even Miliband was hitting home every week. UKIP's promise to 'reexamine the Barnett Formula' was about to bite them, hard. Scotland had become bothersome, with the SNP making noises that sounded like a UDI following the Autumn Statement. Farage didn't take kindly to this and sought to punish them, demanding Reckless go further with the rewiring of Barnett. This only pushed the SNP further, and quickly the situation between Farage and his Scottish counterpart broke down. These issues were only compounded when, out of nowhere, Tim Aker of the Libertarian wing of the party challenged Farage for the leadership. It was a risky move, and it was clear that Aker was a stalking horse for the bigger candidates, but confident he would win Farage fought. It was the referendum on his leadership, and though he won easily, it was not by a comfortable margin. The discontent was clear.
With protests on the street, a Prime Minister who could barely command the respect of his backbencher, Scotland on the verge of seceding, and an economy in the hands of a Thatcherite given free reign, something had to give. And something did give. The local elections of May 2016 were a wash, and UKIP lost 30 of their 33 councillors, as well as failing to win deposits back in seats they had won the year before in Wales, or make any headway in any of the devolved assemblies. In the face of this, Nigel Farage resigned as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and in his last official act as Prime Minister triggered Article 50.
2-Paul Nuttall's leap into the office wasn't a calculated one. Weakened by the leadership contest, it was clear that Farage's cult of personality had worn thin. There were many in Party who still supported him, still loved him, and still held him in high regards, but he was obviously not up to delivering what he promised, and as loyal as Nuttall was, it was increasingly difficult for him to continue justifying the old man. In the end, Nuttall was ultimately responsible for Farage's resignation. Rumours of a second contest began to brew in April 2016, this time led by Douglas Carswell and his band of Libertarians. Nuttall knew Farage would win again, but it wouldn't be a clean victory, and would only serve to break the party. At a private meeting, Nuttall informed the embattled Prime Minister that he would be pulling his support and throwing it behind an alternative 'unity candidate', such as Steven Woolfe or Reckless himself, if Farage did not call it quits. Whilst Farage was angry, nowt was more than sound and fury. Following the local elections, he finally gave in and agreed to Nuttal's conditions, buoyed by the possibility of a peerage. For Farage the party was over, and the future was looking somewhat stable once the 'unity' leader was in place. But Nuttall hadn't expected that Farage would trigger Article 50 on his last day. He hadn't expected a phonecall from Steven Woolfe telling him he wouldn't run, and Reckless laughing off the idea. With no other options, he decided to run himself, going against Douglas Carswell's Libertarian and Suzanne Evans 'Continuity Farageites'. He trumped them both easily, becoming the new Prime Minister shortly thereafter. But his victory would be soured as, whilst stepping through the doors of Downing Street, he was informed that Carswell had taken the defeats and split, taking with him Tim Aker and two dozen MP's into the previously minor Libertarian Party.
With his majority reduced and facing the hanging sword of a vote of no confidence, and in dire need to give his party the mandate to handle 'Briteave', Nuttall went to the country. It was a mistake, indeed one of the biggest miscalculations a sitting Prime Minister had ever made. Swept out of power, Nuttall and UKIP were succeeded by Ed Miliband and Labour, who, in coalition with the Liberal Democrats, promised to "end the madness" and "restore the countries dignity". They would suspend Article 50, and instead hold a referendum on it in 2018. For them that was enough. But for UKIP, everything they had accomplished was gone.
Only time will tell if the party can survive.
