League of Nations Mandates in Post-WWI Germany?

[MAC161]

Re-reading about the League of Nations "mandate" system, a scenario comes to mind that I'm seriously considering outlining/writing for: What if the political and social situation in post-WWI Germany worsened to the point of an even larger, longer civil conflict, and the powers of Europe (grudgingly or otherwise, and with tepid American assistance) agreed to impose some form of mandates on the country, with the aim of creating stability (and testing whether the League can sustain itself)? What PODs would have to take place, and what would the short- and long-term effects be if this happened?

Some elements coming to mind:

*Wilson and Henry Cabot Lodge reach a reluctant compromise, allowing for (limited) U.S. membership in the League.

*France occupies the Ruhr earlier than in OTL, as part of its mandate; the UK controls Hamburg and the North Sea coast.

*With the focus on keeping Germany (the industrial/economic "heart" of Europe) from turning Red, Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War is even more desultory, or doesn't happen at all.

*Some role in Germany for William Graves and his force from the "Siberian Expedition?"

*Some role for the Czech Legion, perhaps as peacekeepers, "encouraged" to serve in the role until the remnants of Austria-Hungary are stable enough for their return home?

*The Spartacist uprising and/or the Bavarian Social Republic lasts longer, with Rosa Luxemburg and Karl Liebknecht living into the early '20s?

*Some form of the Kapp Putsch still takes place, maybe precipitating the Allies' decision to impose mandates?

*The Freikorps still exist in the early '20s, and are considered a dangerous wild card by the Allied peacekeepers.

*Some role for Hitler and the early Nazis?

All thoughts and suggestions are welcome!

 

[Coiler]

*Some role for Hitler and the early Nazis?

All thoughts and suggestions are welcome!

To be honest, I'd just butterfly Hitler away entirely. Maybe have him killed off in a way that makes him look utterly insignificant.

 

[MAC161]

To be honest, I'd just butterfly Hitler away entirely. Maybe have him killed off in a way that makes him look utterly insignificant.

Interesting...perhaps a passing mention of him and the "German Worker's Party" as a minor faction, crushed during the early days of the Bavarian Social Republic?

 

[Alex Richards]

One thing to bear in mind is that the mandates were basically just a way of ceding colonies without officially calling them colonies. Would be a pretty big change in the system to have mandates in Germany seeing as that either means a near-explicit conquest/division of a Great Power, or a completely different conception of the mandates.

You've also got a lot of war weariness at home to contend with which makes large scale occupation difficult to see lasting long.

 

[Coiler]

Interesting...perhaps a passing mention of him and the "German Worker's Party" as a minor faction, crushed during the early days of the Bavarian Social Republic?

That could work.

For the overall theme of the work, and keep in mind I'm thinking in Turtledove-ish "AH as a backdrop/metaphor without the most concern for 'plausibility' ", what struck me was how it could be a reverse version of the historical stereotype of the imposing colossus Germany. A place where in-universe Germany is viewed as a failed state whose danger is its weakness, not its strength.

 

[MAC161]

One thing to bear in mind is that the mandates were basically just a way of ceding colonies without officially calling them colonies. Would be a pretty big change in the system to have mandates in Germany seeing as that either means a near-explicit conquest/division of a Great Power, or a completely different conception of the mandates.

You've also got a lot of war weariness at home to contend with which makes large scale occupation difficult to see lasting long.

Fair point(s). I don't see the story going much past 1923-25, so the long-term occupation concern wouldn't be too much of an issue.

Given four years of German invasion and occupation, I can see the French as more willing to put up with war-weariness than the UK (especially if it means tying economically important regions like the Ruhr Valley and the Saar closer to France), but only for a certain period of time, though possibly longer than in OTL. The UK I feel would be concentrated more on neutralizing any future threat from the German navy (presuming the Scapa Flow scuttling still takes place), which would mean a military presence of some kind (maybe more inspection/observation than occupation?) in Hamburg and elsewhere along the North Sea, and possibly in the Baltic. Not sure what the U.S. would want or get out of an "occupation/mandate" scenario (apart from Wilson's vague, vacuous ideal of German "self-determination" being realized--in the "right" way, of course). And both the UK and France might be more amenable to "occupation/mandates" if colonial troops and those of other nations handled the burden, at least for a while; hence my including the Czech Legion and the American troops meant for Russia in OTL. This would make for interesting character interactions and sentiments (Ex: U.S. troops increasingly wondering "what the hell are we doing here?"; the Czechs and other "peacekeepers" likewise just wanting to go home; the Left and Right in Germany both wanting all occupiers out for different reasons, and so they can face off against each other; regional separatists wanting to escape control from Berlin and the Prussians; Berlin/Weimar just trying to ride out the storm), and add great tension to the storyline.

The more I think about it, a better OTL comparison to this scenario would be the post-WWII Allied division of Germany, though with obvious differences in policy and ultimate aims. Maybe the occupations in this TL could be intended as a watered-down version of that, with the mandate system imposed in the Middle East and elsewhere as in OTL--until some overambitious or vengeful politician or faction among the Allies pushes to implement it in Germany, touching off a major crisis and/or uprising?

 

[Alex Richards]

The more I think about it, a better OTL comparison to this scenario would be the post-WWII Allied division of Germany, though with obvious differences in policy and ultimate aims. Maybe the occupations in this TL could be intended as a watered-down version of that, with the mandate system imposed in the Middle East and elsewhere as in OTL--until some overambitious or vengeful politician or faction among the Allies pushes to implement it in Germany, touching off a major crisis and/or uprising?

You do need a total defeat of Germany to manage this of course. They're never going to agree to it without the Entente literally being in Berlin.

 

[MAC161]

You do need a total defeat of Germany to manage this of course. They're never going to agree to it without the Entente literally being in Berlin.

True, and although Pershing, Foch and other leaders wanted unconditional surrender and possibly an advance to Berlin (in Foch's words right before the Nov. 11 armistice meeting, "to pursue the Feldgrauen with a sword at their backs"), I have strong doubts the Allies could have achieved the kind of conquests in 1918 that were made in 1945.

What seems more plausible is the OTL armistice being followed by an even worse economic/political/social collapse in Germany, with Left- and Right-wing uprisings and local or regional civil wars creating such chaos that the Allies (prodded by Wilson and under the aegis of the still-forming League of Nations) decide to establish at least some kind of presence in certain key regions (the Rhineland, the North Sea/Baltic coasts, maybe certain large cities like Munich, Hannover and Berlin) to promote "stability", and perhaps begin trying to prop up the Weimar gov't or some other faction as the "legitimate" central authority in the territory they don't/can't have troops or observers. This would also, I think, have a unifying effect on many of the factions (esp. the Right) and create even more tension among all those involved in the "failed state" that is this TL's post-WWI Germany

 

[MAC161]

Possible modifier: Faced with ever-increasing popular and right-wing opposition to the 1919 Versailles Treaty, esp. the "war guilt" and reparations clauses, the German government refuses to sign, maybe on the advice of Brockdorff-Rantzau (or delays beyond the June 23rd deadline imposed by the Allies?), which leads to a tense stalemate with the Entente and new outbreaks of violence between the Freikorps/right-wing groups and a battered but still strong German left (which has been increasing its allies in the SPD and other center parties). Finally, a particularly violent incident leads to the collapse of the Weimar Assembly, and civil war officially erupts, only temporarily halted/lessened in intensity with the occupations and troops described in earlier posts. Just as peace is close to being established again at some point in the story, Matthias Erzberger is assassinated as in OTL, sparking new violence, a disgusted Allied withdrawal (or what amounts to such), and an uncertain future for Germany (with perhaps hints of some form of left-wing government or dictatorship cloaked in such rhetoric taking power?).