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Lavidor's maps and projects

Lavidor

Well-known member
Crossposting my draft for FPTP in Israel.

Principles of design:
Data comes from the Electoral commission website, which provides the voting-eligible population registered to each ballot.
I chose to divide the country into 199 constituencies because I knew from my previous attempt that 120 wasn't enough for natural communities, and this quota divided the counting areas pretty evenly.

I tried as far as possible to stick to natural communities: I avoided crossing of local government borders and combining large cities with rural areas, even when that meant geographic weirdness. The fact that I was able to assign decent names to almost all the constituencies shows that I succeeded, I think.

The next phase is precise demarcation. I'm searching for a geolocated database of ballots to use, but it looks like I'll be stuck with just addresses. :(

As I go through region by region I'll post results.

Edit:
Now on github.
blocs20_preset.png
 
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Lavidor

Well-known member
Hi!

First batch, 17 constituencies in Jerusalem, is done!
I've uploaded it, but because I envy the fine mapmakers of this forum I've crudely applied @Ares96 's colour scale to the map.

Jerusalem seats 2020.png

Blocs and vote counts are as per the 2020 election, Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yemina in blue, Blue-White+Joint List+Beitenu+Labour-Meretz in red.
If an election were actually held in this system, I expect Likud would form a full pact with the Haredi parties and exclude Yemina, while the centre-left would vaguely cohere around Yesh Atid, and the Joint List would break up but maybe present joint candidates in ethnically mixed areas.

This surprised me in just how right-wing Jerusalem is. I was expecting the city centre to go to the left, and 4 marginal seats south of that.
As is, the only seat without a right-Haredi majority is Qastel, outside the city, which in practice might go Likud because I don't see Abu Ghosh voting for the Jewish left (Joint List was at 14% in the seat).

Also noteworthy is the Jerusalem Walls seat which had 37% (!) turnout. It includes Palestinian and extremist Haredi neighbourhoods where voting is ideologically frowned upon. Ballots were placed outside the neighbourhoods, which in other circumstances I'd call voter suppression but here might be an attempt to allow voters to come in away from prying eyes.

Data is attached.
 

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Ares96

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Out of curiosity, is there some way to get OTL election results at municipality (or similar) level? I've been wanting to map them, but not reading Hebrew has really set me back in that regard.
 

Lavidor

Well-known member
Out of curiosity, is there some way to get OTL election results at municipality (or similar) level? I've been wanting to map them, but not reading Hebrew has really set me back in that regard.
Yes but in Hebrew. :confused:
The electoral comission websites have a button for exporting to Excel: "יצא לאקסל - תוצאות לפי קלפיות" for results by town, "יצא לאקסל - תוצאות לפי יישובים" for individual ballot boxes.
2013 2015 2019a 2019b 2020 websites, earlier elections need more digging.

Parties are marked by their letters not names, PM me for explanations if you do it.

I'm sure I've seen a database with town names in English, but I didn't save it. Every town has an ID number (column סמל ישוב) which should help.
 
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Lavidor

Well-known member
Trying out a new presentation, although it's definitely too much work to do the whole way.

I present Rehovot by neighbourhood, and also surrounding towns. 2020 results as before.

Rehovot by neighbourhood.png

Rehovot is considered a bellweather in politics, because it has a broadly representative mix of the Jewish population.

There's old money in the Moshava, highly educated people drawn by the Weizmann Institute and hi-tech industry, development-town-style housing projects, new suburbia, old downscale areas with uncertain landownership, a growing Haredi community (with the frankly disturbing name Kretchnif), and the biggest Ethiopian neighbourhood in the country. As the map shows, the surrounding rural area is mostly kibbutzes that vote very left wing.

While the Shaarayim (southeast) seat had a 39% rightwing majority in 2020, the other 3 indeed fall into the category of marginals. Moshava (northeast) to the left by 9%, Sea Road (northwest) 10% to the left, and Bilu (southwest and taking in Kiryat Ekron and Mazkeret Batya) to the right by 10%.
Also depicted: Ness Ziona, 25% majority for the left, and parts of Broad Horizon, a true knife-edge marginal.


If you visit the map you'll see my progress moving north and east from Jerusalem.
 

Ares96

Timeo Ever Given et dona containers
Published by SLP
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Yes but in Hebrew. :confused:
The electoral comission websites have a button for exporting to Excel: "יצא לאקסל - תוצאות לפי קלפיות" for results by town, "יצא לאקסל - תוצאות לפי יישובים" for individual ballot boxes.
2013 2015 2019a 2019b 2020 websites, earlier elections need more digging.

Parties are marked by their letters not names, PM me for explanations if you do it.

I'm sure I've seen a database with town names in English, but I didn't save it. Every town has an ID number (column סמל ישוב) which should help.
I am a big fan of how Google Translate renders the "valid votes" column as "kosher votes".
 

Lavidor

Well-known member
Updated with the area from Jerusalem to the outskirts of Tel Aviv.

Modiin seats 2020.png

Some interesting results here. Lydda North in red jumps out at me, although it's a combination of a big Arab minority and a strong Beitenu vote, which seem unlikely to combine. We also have the rural seat Broad Horizon which is the first true marginal I've drawn, surprising for a rural area. Ofer Shelah, second-in-command of Yesh Atid, lives there but he'd probably be set for a safe seat. Although he did declare a leadership challenge recently...

This section included a seat entirely in the West Bank (in the last batch there were some but right by the border). As you can see I didn't mark it differently on the map but I'm not satisfied with that as a solution. Maybe masking Areas A+B in black? It'd be ugly but so is occupation.


Since the semester's starting tomorrow, progress will be slower on the next batch. I'm aiming to push west to Ashdod and Ashkelon and leave the metro area for later.
 

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Ares96

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Lydda North in red jumps out at me, although it's a combination of a big Arab minority and a strong Beitenu vote, which seem unlikely to combine.
It took me a really long time to parse this sentence and grapple with the fact that Yisrael Beiteinu is somehow now part of the left.
 

Lavidor

Well-known member
Updated! And looking quite good if I do say so myself

Philistia seats 2020.png

This area - specifically the "development towns" of the South - is the heartland of the Likud. Many of its representatives live, or at least grew up, here and would probably represent these safe seats.
Miri Regev and Miki Zohar from Kiryat Gath (handily split between 2 seats, probably Regev in the city and Zohar in the more rural one), Avi Dichter and Gilad Erdan from Ashkelon, Gila Gamliel from Gedera, Kathy Shitrit from Beth Shemesh, Shlomo Karai from Sderot (even a year ago Amir Peretz' star power might have been enough to overcome the seat's right lean, but probably not anymore).

There are 4 towns here (Gedera, Gan Yavne, Malachi, Sderot) that are just over half a quota, and I've combined them with the neighbouring regional councils, against my rules but it works better. Because there are a lot of religious moshavs here this mostly didn't change the right wing orientation.
 

Lavidor

Well-known member
Evening all, new update covering the south of the Gush Dan metropolis (Bat Yam, Holon, Rishon leZion).

South Dan seats 2020.png

Bat Yam is a sort of extension of South Tel Aviv, very working class and Mizrachi (and thus Likud). But it's also a centre of the Russian community and gives a good portion of the vote to Lieberman. However, that support doesn't cluster and there's no likely Beitenu seat. Bat Yam has notably low turnout at 52%.

Holon has a similar character in parts, particularly the neighbourhoods Jessy Cohen and Tel Giborim (which anchors an ultra-safe Likud seat in the northwest, probably reserved for Minister Eli Cohen) but also a pre-state city centre similar to the Moshavot (Rehovot for instance), and new suburbia which like in most of the country is politically evenly balanced. This is the last city that retains an old-school Labour mayor.
I've gone a bit bombastic with the names of the Holon constituencies:
Industry after a major road in the area; Technology for the Holon Institute of Technology and the Med-Tech are in its centre; Heroism as a play on Tel Giborim neighbourhood; Homeland after the abandoned settlement by that name in Holon's southern dunes; Agriculture because the city centre was historically called Agrobank and it contains the agricultural school Mikveh Israel.

Rishon leZion is another historic Moshava, but most of it is newer suburbs. Happily this produced a few marginal seats.

This region marks the first time a constituency has varied more than 5% from the population quota (in fact two constituencies, Heroism and Yoseftal). :cry:

Since I'm a third of the way through, have an overview - this time a turnout map borrowing @Thande 's colour scheme.

seats by turnout.png
Should probably make the lines thinner.
 

Lavidor

Well-known member
Does anyone know a tool to render kml files without anti-aliasing?

Edit: Ok, managed to convert to svg and then inkscape did it.
 
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Ares96

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That’s a pretty stark 1948 ceasefire line, to say the least. Not that I’m surprised.
 

Lavidor

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Haven't made progress on mapping but I did put in the numbers from the second 2019 election.
Blocs defined as Likud+Shas+UTJ+Yemina+Otzma against Blue-White+Joint List+Labour-Gesher+Meretz+Israel Beitenu

Party map 2019b 2710.png
Bloc map 2019b 2710.png
Turnout map 2019b 2710.png

Note Ashdod Ad Halom has NDI (turns out Israel Beitenu has an official acronym from its Russian name) as the largest party. I used another shade of blue - I think it's distinct enough but I've been staring at this for a while.

On the overall results - you can see why Lapid and Lieberman were so gung-ho for a third election. There was a strong swing to Blue-White and allies but not enough to form a stable government (unless Likud split, but Lapid was always a fantasist). On the bloc map there's a bunch of seats in Ashdod, Holon, and Bat Yam that are tantalisingly close. Obviously they weren't looking at imaginary constituencies, but you can see why "one more heave" seemed to make sense.

In the event, from 2019b to 2020 there was a pretty consistent 4-5% swing to Netanyahu across all seats without significant minority populations (Haredis were already maxed out, maybe 2% of Arabs consider voting Right). In his strategy he focused on boosting turnout in Likud strongholds - you can see a small effect - but the Likuds gained direct switchers. Analysts said they mostly voted Kulanu and Gesher in the first election.

The other notable change between the elections - the rise in Arab turnout and further consolidation of votes in the Joint List - is visible in Lydda North. There Joint List became the largest party, driving a slight swing to Gantz's bloc.
 

Lavidor

Well-known member
Updated, now in the Galilee.


Northern seats party 2020.png
Northern seats blocs 2020.png

This area benefits from the party map to distinguish between Arab-populated seats (>90% Joint List) and mixed-population ones (lighter greens).

Of note:
Most of the Druze population is in this area - they're pretty concentrated but only a dominant majority in one seat (Tephen). Without granular data, I'd estimate Druze are roughly half the electorate in JYYA (shit name but that's what it was called when those towns were united in one municipality), Zalmon, and Carmel (not pictured). In the actual system, Druze are overrepresented in the Knesset with 4/120 members because Zionist parties feel the need to include them, here there might be 4 Druze members or fewer in a larger parliament.

Despite some effort, I was unable to draw a primarilly Christian constituency. I think Netafim and Maalot are both around 20%. Unlike the Druze, most Christians don't live in majority-Christian villages. In the absence of a dedicated party they'd have a hard time getting represented (maybe Hadash or Balad would become such unofficially).

The northermost seat (Rosh HaNikra) is deceptively urban. Really the only rural seats are the 2 Blue-White voting ones - Tephen and Central Galilee.

Karmiel (the city in the middle) with Likud largest party but Gantz larger bloc. There's a pretty sharp gradient with northern neighbourhoods giving a 14% margin for Gantz and southern neighbourhoods on a knife-edge balance. Why? 19.4% for Israel Beitenu.
 
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