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Hillary Clinton and the Senate Race That Nearly Wasn't (or Always Was?)

Beata Beatrix

Camille Paglia on Judge Dredd
Location
Portland, OR
Pronouns
she/her/hers
So, it seems that everyone's 'favorite' executive spouse turned politician (Muriel Humphrey, I'm sorry, but this isn't about you) was rather on the fence about running for her seat in 2000. To be sure, she'd been asked to run as early as 1997, but it seems that at first she was rather uncommitted, and took it as more a sign of her popularity than something she really had to acknowledge. Then Harold Ickes told her that she would have to "acknowledge the growing public pressure to run and take the question of a campaign seriously.” Ickes, always what you might call a straight shooter, wasn't big on her prospects, though, saying that he doubted her popularity in New York, especially with women – this being during the Lewinsky scandal, there were the inevitable questions about 'why doesn't she leave him?' weighing on her.

Nevertheless, she persisted (I couldn't resist). I'll let Her Way, the fairly full if rather fawning Hillary biography I'm taking this from, take it from here:
With the impeachment trial finally behind Bill, her office announced on February 16, 1999, that she was considering running for the Senate. This merely confirmed what many political analysts had long assumed. But in Living History, Hillary insisted that until shortly before that announcement, she actually was undecided and even leaning against running. Many of her closest friends and advisers—including her scheduler Patti Solis Doyle; her former chief of staff, Maggie Williams; and Mandy Grunwald, the media consultant; among others—had urged Hillary against running, telling her that she would have far more influence on the issues she cared about if she worked outside the confines of the hundred-member Senate club. Doyle, in particular, had been her usual blunt self, blurting out, “Hillary, I just don’t think you can win this race.”

Hillary claims she was on the fence, and that she needed a push, which I believe. What I don't believe is Hillary's saccharine story about a young girl whispering to Hillary that she should "dare to compete" at an event designed to salute female athletes, which, she claims, along with lines from, of all things, A League of Their Own, was her 'push'. It's hooey, obviously. Hillary is and has always been a very ambitious person – even her fans will agree with that. The question, though, is whether she might have reoriented her ambitions to someplace else. Clinton intimates, as the sources I've cited have hopefully made clear, were unsure of Hillary's chances, especially against a candidate like Rudy Giuliani – something she wouldn't have to worry about, as it turned out.

If Hillary decides that she won't run, and decides to gear up for another fight – maybe Illinois in '04? – the race is likely Nita Lowey versus Rudy Giuliani, or whoever might replace Rudy when he drops out. I think Hillary would very likely end up kicking herself as she watches the race unfold, seeing as though she clearly could've won, but it'd be too late. From there, though, I'm drawing a blank. What do you suppose she does next? What does Bill do next?

There are definitely good arguments to be made that Hillary probably was always going to run, and Moynihan's retirement was a perfect opportunity for her to make her entry into the arena. Still, I am curious to hear what you all think and what the 2004 race might look like without the early 'draft Hillary' movement and whatnot.
 
As low an opinion of Hillary as I have, I don't think she was always going to run. She didn't just barge into the race with intent from day one, she was invited and coaxed over months by Charles Rangel and other state politicians on the promise of them completely sewing up the primary for her. 'Putting together an offer the first lady can't refuse' as Rangel put it. Without that appeal and ground-laying from NY Democrats in a state which has often been gentle towards carpetbagging, she almost certainly wouldn't have run.

It can't be ruled out, but I don't think she would pursue an electoral career had she not got into the New York race - I think that was one of those little moments where everything aligned, a strong opponent such as Guiliani likely running, Democrats worried about lack of high profile candidates etc. She was supposedly fairly reconciled to some sort of policy advocacy role before all this kicked off. It's possible she starts her own think tank, something like that.
 
She was supposedly fairly reconciled to some sort of policy advocacy role before all this kicked off. It's possible she starts her own think tank, something like that.

That would make more sense that trying a run later after passing it up. And with eight years of Bush and neocons, that's a lot of years a think tank run by a famous woman connected to the last non-Bush president might get its thinking talked about.

If she's doing that, she's also not running in 2007-08. That seems to leave John Edwards as Obama's big rival, though surely that would mean the story of his affairs is going to come out sooner and knock him out, so who'd be the distant #3 finding themselves in with a long shot?
 
That would make more sense that trying a run later after passing it up. And with eight years of Bush and neocons, that's a lot of years a think tank run by a famous woman connected to the last non-Bush president might get its thinking talked about.

If she's doing that, she's also not running in 2007-08. That seems to leave John Edwards as Obama's big rival, though surely that would mean the story of his affairs is going to come out sooner and knock him out, so who'd be the distant #3 finding themselves in with a long shot?

Leaving apart the absolute butterfly death here, why do people always assume that taking someone out from a presidential contest means the field is totally unchanged? Without Hillary, obviously more people would run, and more would run better and longer. Mark Warner would stay in and would probably be a serious candidate, Bayh, Vilsack etc. Biden might do better.

But to go back to what I elided at the start, ten years after a POD, it's not very useful to speculate.
 
That would make more sense that trying a run later after passing it up. And with eight years of Bush and neocons, that's a lot of years a think tank run by a famous woman connected to the last non-Bush president might get its thinking talked about.

If she's doing that, she's also not running in 2007-08. That seems to leave John Edwards as Obama's big rival, though surely that would mean the story of his affairs is going to come out sooner and knock him out, so who'd be the distant #3 finding themselves in with a long shot?
This assumes that Obama still runs. And even if he does, he won't have the boost of "not being Hillary."
 
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