Greece and Turkey not allowed to join NATO

[Ricardolindo]

In our timeline, there was some opposition to allowing Greece and Turkey to join NATO. George Kennan was a prominent critic. Decades later, he justified his opposition by pointing out those two nations disliked each other and were unstable. So, what if the opponents won out? Suppose Greece and Turkey, instead of joining NATO, both have bilateral agreements with the US. What are the effects of this?

 

[Charles EP M.]

I'd assume NATO becomes less expansionist - if Greece and Turkey, nations with obvious strategic reasons to be brought in, are out at a point in the Cold War where a conventional WW3 is still a concern, does that cement a perception that NATO is Just These Countries and anything else is a bilateral issue?

This also means no nuclear weapons in Turkey or Greece under a NATO 'nuclear sharing' plan. That means the USSR probably doesn't station nuclear weapons in Cuba - a tit-for-tat "well if YOU'RE putting them in OUR lawn--" move - and without that, the cultural impact of the Cold War changes massively. There's a difference between knowing "a war will kill half the planet at best" and "we almost had it happen at this precise date"

 

[Nyvis]

I'd assume NATO becomes less expansionist - if Greece and Turkey, nations with obvious strategic reasons to be brought in, are out at a point in the Cold War where a conventional WW3 is still a concern, does that cement a perception that NATO is Just These Countries and anything else is a bilateral issue?

This also means no nuclear weapons in Turkey or Greece under a NATO 'nuclear sharing' plan. That means the USSR probably doesn't station nuclear weapons in Cuba - a tit-for-tat "well if YOU'RE putting them in OUR lawn--" move - and without that, the cultural impact of the Cold War changes massively. There's a difference between knowing "a war will kill half the planet at best" and "we almost had it happen at this precise date"

Yeah this is likely to change the face of the cold war entirely... Probably for the better, honestly?

 

[Ricardolindo]

I'd assume NATO becomes less expansionist - if Greece and Turkey, nations with obvious strategic reasons to be brought in, are out at a point in the Cold War where a conventional WW3 is still a concern, does that cement a perception that NATO is Just These Countries and anything else is a bilateral issue?

This also means no nuclear weapons in Turkey or Greece under a NATO 'nuclear sharing' plan. That means the USSR probably doesn't station nuclear weapons in Cuba - a tit-for-tat "well if YOU'RE putting them in OUR lawn--" move - and without that, the cultural impact of the Cold War changes massively. There's a difference between knowing "a war will kill half the planet at best" and "we almost had it happen at this precise date"

There were never nuclear weapons in Greece. They were in Italy and Turkey. That being said, I don't think the ones in Italy were, by themselves, threatening enough for the Soviet Union to send their own to Cuba.

 

[Ricardolindo]

I'd assume NATO becomes less expansionist - if Greece and Turkey, nations with obvious strategic reasons to be brought in, are out at a point in the Cold War where a conventional WW3 is still a concern, does that cement a perception that NATO is Just These Countries and anything else is a bilateral issue?

This also means no nuclear weapons in Turkey or Greece under a NATO 'nuclear sharing' plan. That means the USSR probably doesn't station nuclear weapons in Cuba - a tit-for-tat "well if YOU'RE putting them in OUR lawn--" move - and without that, the cultural impact of the Cold War changes massively. There's a difference between knowing "a war will kill half the planet at best" and "we almost had it happen at this precise date"

It can be argued that, strategically, the cons of allowing Greece and Turkey to join NATO outweighed the pros. Yes, they controlled the Soviet acess to the Mediterranean but that could be dealt with by bilateral agreements. Meanwhile, they were unstable, disliked each other and were too far away to help other NATO members in case of a Soviet attack.