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Gonzo's Graphics and Infoboxes Thread

Gonzo

Actually nostalgic for Peter Robinson
I guess this is the right place for infoboxes and graphics.

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"Another day is dawning
With another bridge to cross
Another fight and one we're not afraid of
It never has been easy
And it won't be easy now
It's another chance to show what we are made of
We have fought side by side
With pride and dignity
And together we can face the future fearlessly

We've been there, we've been needed
We have fought and we've succeeded
We'll be there in the future
As we were in the past
We'll be there even longer
We'll be there even stronger
Fianna Fail for the future
And for Ireland."
-'We'll be there - A Song for Fianna Fail', Cathal Dunne

Ireland - First Past the Post Shenanigans Edition

The Irish general election of 2017 took place on the 2nd March 2017 to elect 165 Teachtai Dalas (TDs) from each of the single member constituencies to the Dail Eireann, the lower house of the Oireachtas, Ireland's parliament. The previous Dail was dissolved by President John Waters, on the 6th February, at the request of Taoiseach Micheal Martin.

In 2013 the Fianna Fail government of Brian Lenihan, Jr. was returned for a second term in office as a majority government. Lenihan had won a large majority at the 2009 general election when he defeated the Fine Gael-Labour government of Michael Noonan which had been blamed for Ireland's dire economic straits. Lenihan's cancer diagnosis during the tenure of that Dail led to suggestions that he would resign as Taioseach and would be replaced by his deputy (Tanaiste or Deputy Prime Minister) Mary Coughlan or his Minister for External Affairs Micheal Martin - these calls were however mooted by Lenihan who made it clear he wished to remain on as party leader and as Taoiseach. Lenihan would temporarily stand down as Taoiseach while he underwent surgery for pancreatic cancer - in his place Tanaiste Mary Coughlan would serve as acting Taoiseach until Lenihan resumed office in early September 2011. Lenihan's cancer would however return and would eventually lead to his death in mid-2014 at the age of 55. In the ensuing leadership race, Micheal Martin would emerge victorious as the new Fianna Fail leader and as the new Taoiseach. Martin, while initially popular, was seen as a wooden and uncomfortable leader, owing to his tendency to try a please everyone while pleasing no one. His tendency to try and create political consensus with the opposition parties (similar to the Tallaght Strategy of Fine Gael leader Mark Clinton during the Fianna Fail minority government under Des O'Malley in the early 1990s). This however was unpopular with the party's grassroots and led some in the parliamentary party to suggest replacing Martin with either Coughlan, Eamon O Cuiv, Niall Blaney or Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher. These suggestions were however mooted as the government began to rise once again in the polls due to good economic news in 2015. Fianna Fail could take some comfort by the news that the 'National Coalition' (an electoral and occasional parliamentary arrangement between Fine Gael and Labour which dated back to the 1973 general election) was embroiled in infighting stemming from Fine Gael's new leader - Lucinda Creighton. Creighton, on the conservative wing of the party, was at odds with the more liberal elements in the party which had held sway for nearly twenty-five years. This led to friction with the more liberal and left-leaning Labour Party which saw one of its TDs, Stephen Donnelly, split off and form his own Social Democratic party. Labour and Fianna Fail however both had threats from their main republican rivals. For Labour it was the Workers' Party which by 2015 was polling as high as 7% in the polls, while Labour was polling as low as 4%. The Workers' Party, the Marxist-left of the republican movement, had seen its political fortunes improve due to the unpopularity of Labour's continued arrangement with Fine Gael, among left-leaning voters. Meanwhile Sinn Fein, a conservative republican party that could trace its direct roots back to the anti-compromise wing of the Anti-Treaty Republican Party of de Valera; it was beginning to pose a serious electoral threat to Fianna Fail, and could potentially gain several seats in the border region with Northern Ireland.

When the general election was called in February 2017, the question on everyone's lips was whether Fianna Fail could limp near to or even across the majority line of 84 seats. Over the course of the Dail sitting the party had lost several seats (and thus its precarious one seat majority) and it was judged unlikely that the party would gain any seats. Meanwhile Fine Gael was in a buoyant mood and was predicting that it could potentially break 60 seats for the first time since John Bruton's re-election twenty years prior. It was also aided by the deep pockets of conservative businessman Declan Ganley who was judged to have been promised a Seanad (Senate) seat, courtesy of the Taoiseach's nomination, if Fine Gael were returned to power. Fianna Fail meanwhile was seen to be in the exceedingly deep financial pocket of Eddie Haughey, the party's Seanad leader and the ninth richest man in the country. The main issues of the election campaign were the government's proposed tax cuts and rural subsidies - both of which were agreed to by Fine Gael, despite the latter party's insistence that they were merely electoral 'sweeteners'. While both Sinn Fein and the Workers' Party gained in the polls, Labour would only marginally gain some more votes back from the WP. The electoral arithmetic would also have to factor in several Independent TDs, in particular the Rural Independent Group, an informal 'party' which comprised of conservative-mined rural TDs (mainly from the west of Ireland), such as the Healy-Rae brothers Michael & Danny, Mattie McGrath and Mildred Fox. Smaller parties such as the Green Party, the Social Democrats and the far-right National Party also were hopeful of gains and potentially holding the balance of power in the new Dail. The debates, which included the most leaders ever - nine - were a spectacle to behold. Martin was attacked from the left, right and centre as a weak figurehead who was merely in place to prevent other more ambitious Fianna Fail TDs from gaining the leadership of the party and potentially ripping it apart. Creighton was attacked as a hardline Catholic reactionary who opposed even the growing calls even from within Fine Gael to support holding a referendum on allowing same-sex marriage in Ireland. Sinn Fein leader Peadar Toibin and WP leader Eamon Gilmore would make snide remarks at each other over who was the true heir to 1916. Healy-Rae blabbered on about farming and pot-holes in Kerry, Green leader Eamon Ryan tried to pitch for the student vote in Dublin, Social Democrat leader Stephen Donnelly waved to his ma and pa during his five minutes of fame, and National Party leader Justin Barrett opened his mouth and spewed a load of racist gobshite from it. Heading into polling day no one was really sure what exactly was going to happen.

The final result would see Fianna Fail win a reduced plurality, while Fine Gael performed respectably but failed to make good on its pre-election predictions. Sinn Fein nearly doubled its number of seats, while Labour more than halved its. The Rural Independents gained several seats out in the Gaeltacht, while the WP gained a handful of seats in Dublin. The Greens won a second seat, thus allow for Ryan to have a friend to sit at his table for lunch. Donnelly managed to easily win re-election in his Wicklow seat but didn't manage to bring any colleagues to Dublin. Barrett won a seat in North Cork owing to the incumbent Fianna Fail TD being de-selected and producing a four way split with Fine Gael-Fianna Fail-Rural Independents which enabled Barrett to win with only 32% of the vote. Labour would announce that they wouldn't support Fine Gael in government, while Sinn Fein and the WPs made clear they were reluctant to support either major party in government. Donnelly offered his support to Fianna Fail, as did Ryan. Barrett offered his support to both parties but was told in no uncertain terms where to take his support and where to shove it up. The Rural Independents Group, after internal talks resolved to support 'change' and Fine Gael. This would lead to Martin proposing, and Creighton accepting a proposal for her to form a minority government with FF-RIG support, but that it would only remain for three budgets. For the first time since the days of W.T. Cosgrave, Fine Gael was back in government at the head of a single-party minority government. Only time would tell if Creighton would be another successful Fine Gael leader in the vein of John Bruton or John Costello, or if she would be a literal lead balloon like Michael Noonan or Richard Burke.

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I...I...think I would actually take OTL's political setup over that.

Lucinda

I'd have thought President John Waters (Ted Kaczynski without maths or bomb making knowhow) was even worse?

*All seats are held by Independents*
*Kerry is represented by 6 Healy-Raes*
*Independent Fianna Fail is a thing again*
*Government resolves to fight the major problem of potholes in Mullingar*
*Leinster House demolished to the ground to make firewood*
 
Ireland - This is what happens when the only disagreements between the two main parties is which side your great granddaddy fought on in the Civil War

The Irish presidential election, 2015 took place on the 29th May 2015 to elect a new President of Ireland. This came after the incumbent, Brian Crowley of Fianna Fail was unable to stand once again for re-election after having served the maximum two terms in office as President after having been elected for the first time in 2001 and being re-elected in 2008.

In 2008 incumbent President Brian Crowley was re-elected to a second seven year term as President. Crowley, a former Fianna Fail TD from Cork between 1993 and his election as President in 2001; he was widely seen as an average President. A former opposition spokesman shadowing the Minister for Industry and Commerce during the Bruton Fine Gael government. While generally respected and admired as a capable President who was prepared to stand up to his own party when necessary, Crowley's erratic work ethic was criticised by some, especially those outside of Fianna Fail. Crowley had been elected President in 2001, defeating Fine Gael Minister Madeline Taylor-Quinn, Northern Irish-based Labour Senator Brid Rodgers and singer-turned-family values campaigner-turned-Senator Dana Rosemary Scallon. Crowley succeeded incumbent President Peter Barry who had vowed to only serve one seven year term owing to his advanced age and desire to turn over the post to 'new blood' Barry was the first single term President of the Republic since former Taoiseach Eamon de Valera who had been elected easily as President in 1959 (along with the passage via referendum of a change in the nation's electoral laws to First Past the Post). De Valera however was shockingly defeated by less than a percentage point by Fine Gael's Tom O'Higgins in 1966. O'Higgins would win re-election unopposed in 1973 and would thus become the first Irish President to serve two seven year terms. O'Higgins was succeeded by Garret Fitzgerald of Fianna Fail as President. Fitzgerald, who had been persuaded to join Fianna Fail in the mid-1960s was very much an associate of then Fianna Fail deputy leader and later Taoiseach Desmond 'Des' O'Malley - a noted reformist within the party. Fitzgerald defeated Finance Minister Richie Ryan in the 1980 Presidential election and would defeat former Minister for External Affairs, UN official and Chief of Staff of the IRA Sean MacBride in a landslide victory. Fitzgerald is generally considered the most popular Irish President in the history of the Republic owing to his apolitical stances and refusal to wade into political affairs - this was as opposed to his predecessor who was known to have a bad working relationship with Taoiseach Charlie Haughey and a worryingly close relationship with Haughey's successor Richard Burke. The 1994 Presidential election would offer the Irish electorate the opportunity to choose between more than two candidates for the first time. Those running were Peter Barry, Fianna Fail deputy leader Padraig Flynn, human rights campaigner Adi Roche for Labour and Dana Rosemary Scallon in her first political foray. Barry managed to handily win as Dana managed to alienate many voters in the more liberal east of the country, Roche was engulfed in a bullying scandal and Flynn was portrayed (quite accurately) as a corrupt arrogant cute hoor.

The 2015 race however would feature a wide array of candidates for the Presidency. For the governing Fianna Fail party, the party nominated entrepreneur, businessman, television personality and former Fianna Fail General Secretary Sean Gallagher. Gallagher was the immediate frontrunner in the race. Fine Gael nominated Dublin TD Peter Matthews, a noted conservative within the party who was seen as part of leader Lucinda Creighton's inner circle. Matthews however was known to be suffering from oesophageal cancer and though he insisted that it didn't risk his life, his campaign was widely seen as a swan song for the popular and respected Dublin TD. Dana Rosemary Scallon was meanwhile nominated via councils, an alternate route to gaining a place on the ballot - her bid was supported by various Sinn Fein and Rural Independent TDs as well as a handful of Senators, though it was deemed unlikely that she would break the over 15% of the vote margin she did in her earlier runs nearly fifteen years prior. The Labour Party meanwhile nominated the party's Seanad leader Joan Burton as its candidate. While not expecting to win, the party sought to test its support and wished to prove the naysayers wrong and prove that the party was not polling as low as the 3% that some polls stated it was. The election would also feature two notable Independent candidates. David Norris, a Senator for the University of Dublin since 1985 and a former Trinity College, Dublin English lecturer - Norris was widely seen as the leading candidate of the left-of-centre in the absence of a serious bid by the Labour Party. Norris was a popular campaigner and figure who was noted as having almost singlehandedly overthrown the anti-homosexuality laws which had prosecuted Oscar Wilde nearly a century prior. Initial polling showed that the race was a two horse one between Gallagher and Norris. The final candidate was Irish Times columnist, journalist, author and playwright John Waters. Waters, who was noted as the father of one of the children of Sinead O'Connor was like Norris a deeply controversial candidate. A self-professed neo-Luddite and conservative Catholic, Waters was also known as having been Ireland's entry to the Eurovision song contest in 2010 in which he performed considerably less well than Dana and came third from last in the song contest final.

Over the course of the campaign it became apparent that Matthews, Scallon and Burton had no chance at victory - and that the race was likely to result in Norris and Gallagher appearing in the final count. This polling trend continued throughout the campaign and until the final debate when a bombshell 'October Surprise' was made when Gallagher was forced to admit live on air that he had collected a I£5,000 cheque for a Fianna Fail fundraiser event from a man that Gallagher himself had described as a "convicted criminal and fuel smuggler." Like that Gallagher's campaign was in freefall and it was no longer accepted that he would make the final count. Other campaigners were also met with bad publicity throughout the campaign. Matthews was hounded repeatedly for a clean bill from his doctor - when one couldn't be given his campaign was written off further. Burton got into scuffles with hard-left activists who blocked her exit from her car - she then threatened legal action against those who had done it which made her campaign into a frivolous affair. Scallon meanwhile dogged by her remarks that a malicious and false accusation had been made about her family - it later emerged that they were allegations about her brother who would later be charged and later cleared of all the charges. Concern was raised over highly controversial comments made by Norris in Magill magazine over a decade prior were 'dug up' by aspects of the press, which dogged his campaign further, as did his claims he had been libelled by the media. Waters merely opened his mouth and proceeded to offend gay people, those suffering from depression, and online bloggers (claiming that anywhere from 60-70% of the internet was pornography). Indeed on election day in late May 2015 no one quite sure what had happened. Norris led the pack with 27% of the vote, to Waters' 23%, Matthews' 19%, Gallagher's 18%, Scallon's 8% and Burton's 5%. When the final count preferences trickled over, no one was quite sure to make of the fact that Waters had somehow managed to cobble together a ragtag coalition of some Matthews, some Gallagher and Scallon voters in order to emerge victorious in the closest Presidential race in decades. President Crowley and the Taoiseach, Micheal Martin made one request of Waters before giving him the keys of the Aras an Uachtarain (the President's official residence) - get a haircut, please.


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Ireland - This is what happens when the only disagreements between the two main parties is which side your great granddaddy fought on in the Civil War
This is really good work, but unfortunately it's somewhat predictable from you. I know you have a brand, but it wouldn't hurt to shake it up a bit.
 
This is really good work, but unfortunately it's somewhat predictable from you. I know you have a brand, but it wouldn't hurt to shake it up a bit.

I was trying to have something somewhat realistic (which I think I have achieved in terms of the list of Taoiseachs), but I agree with your point there.

I did have a little concept list before with a more stereotypical Scandinavian Ireland with a dominant Social Democratic Party. I guess I could try that eventually.
 
The 1974 general election in Northern Ireland, often dubbed the Sunningdale election, was held under the large shadow of the Sunningdale Agreement. The Agreement set up a powersharing government in Northern Ireland which would include the Ulster Unionist Party, the SDLP, the non-sectarian Alliance Party and was supported by the Northern Ireland Labour Party. By far the most contentious matter agreed was the creation of a Council of Ireland which would focus on tourism, conservation and animal welfare. This incensed Unionists who saw it as the creeping influence of the Irish Republic in Northern Irish affairs and making a United Ireland more likely. Their fears were seemingly confirmed when SDLP councillor Hugh Logue described the Council as "the vehicle that would trundle Unionists into a United Ireland" in a speech at Trinity College, Dublin. The day after the Agreement was signed various loyalist paramilitary groups bandied together to form the Ulster Army Council which would oppose the Agreement. In January the UUP voted narrowly to leave the new Executive (which had only taken office on the 1st January) and withdraw from the Assembly. The UUP leader (and the new Chief Executive of Northern Ireland), Brian Faulkner, resigned as UUP leader and was replaced by the anti-Sunningdale Harry West. The following month a general election was held and saw two rival factions form. The UUP banded together with the smaller hardline Unionist Ulster Vanguard and the DUP of the Rev. Ian Paisley to form the United Ulster Unionist Council as an alliance of anti-Agreement Unionists with one candidate per constituency. Pro-Agreement Unionist, made up of Faulkner Loyalists, the SDLP, Alliance and the NILP agreed to a loose pact along similar lines. It was however assumed that such an arrangement would be hard to work as it was deemed unlikely that Unionist and Nationalist voters would cross community lines to vote for a candidate from the other party. Faulkner managed to gain the support of several serving MPs who were also pro-Sunningdale. Unionist MPs Rafton Pounder (South Belfast), Stanley McMaster (East Belfast) and James Kilfedder (North Down) all ran as Pro-Assembly Unionists. The Faulkner Unionists' main hope was in North Antrim, the seat of the Rev. Paisley who held it was a small majority. The party ran arch-Unionist and High Tory Spectator columnist T.E. 'Peter' Utley. Utley was a colourful figure sporting an eyepatch and being blind since the age of nine - he always took it in his stride (and fortified by some whisky and cigarettes) he noted that he needed his wife to provide "descriptions of the landscape which are among the chief burdens of blindness. Her most succinct description was that of St Peter's in Rome: 'It is very big indeed.' " The SDLP meanwhile seemed poised to benefit from the arrangement in Mid Ulster (then held by radical socialist Bernadette McAliskey who had destroyed her chances at re-election in the majority Catholic seat by having a child out of wedlock) and in South Down (a close run seat with a relatively 50:50 split between Unionists and Nationalist and also Faulkner's home turf). Running under the slogan 'Dublin is just a Sunningdale away' the UUUC talked of a clean sweep taking all 12 seats. This was indeed a possibility with at least 11 seats being deemed likely to be won by the UUUC - West Belfast, then held by SDLP leader Gerry Fitt, was too close to call with the Nationalist vote being splintered.

Yet when the results were declared, it had been a good night for the Pro-Sunningdale forces. The UUP had held six seats, down two from 1970, while the Faulkner Unionists had won four seats, gaining North Antrim in the process. The SDLP meanwhile benefitted from the pact and gained South Down and Mid Ulster. Neither Ulster Vanguard nor the DUP won any seats, and the Alliance party performed about as well as could be expected. The new Pro-Sunningdale Unionists meanwhile vowed to take the Tory Whip, thus making the general election result in a 301-a-piece result for the Tories and Labour. While chaos seemed to be the word of the day in Westminster, the Sunningdale powersharing government was seemingly vindicated with it holding 50% of the seats in the province. Yet talk of a strike by the newly formed Ulster Workers Council continued to persist...

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Brian Faulkner's UPNI beating the Big Man? :eek::eek::eek::eek:

I suppose going off the result from 1970 with no boost from the UUUC, Utley can *just* about scrape through. Plus its important to note that Utley was overall probably to the Rev. Dr. Lord. MP. MLA. Cllr. MEP.'s right as a average while still probably being more tolerable to the average Nationalist voter due to him being from the mainland (imagine the trope of Charles Moore running in North Down, except he has a chance).
 
Here are some graphics I made on the other place featuring several what-ifs of French politics:

Balladurverse or a Chirac-screw

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In several of the polls from the 1995 French presidential race there was a distinct possibility that the two spots in the runoff contest would actually go to the two conservative candidates - Edouard Balladur and Jacques Chirac. A little background to the contest is needed I guess. It was generally agreed that the single candidate for the French Gaullist party, Rassemblement pour la Republique (RPR), would be former Prime Minister and the party's founder, Jacques Chirac. Chirac, a former Prime Minister under two non-Gaullist Presidents - Valery Giscard d'Estaing (Independent Republican) and Francois Mitterrand (Socialist), had passed on the opportunity to cohabit with Mitterrand as Prime Minister again after the 1993 legislative elections that saw the combined French right hold 485 seats to the 91 for the Presidential Majority (plus Communists). Instead Chirac offered up his former Minister of Finance, Edouard Balladur as the new Prime Minister under Mitterrand. In becoming Prime Minister, Balladur promised Chirac that he would not throw his hat into the ring for the 1995 presidential election, and he would instead support Chirac's third bid for the Presidency. After a number of leading right-wing politicians asked him to run, Balladur reversed his promise and entered the campaign. Announcing his bid four months before the election, Balladur held an almost unassailable lead over Chirac, with one poll in March 1994 putting him twenty and ten points above Chirac and the governing Socialist candidate, Lionel Jospin. Throughout the campaign Chirac hammered Balladur from the position of an outsider which aided Chirac's numbers. This coupled with a bugging scandal which implicated Balladur helped to push his campaign into a narrow third place behind Chirac and Jospin. In the end Chirac emerged victorious in a narrow contest as the first Gaullist President elected since Pompidou in 1969.

Now at certain points in the campaign polling was to close to suggesting, or even suggested that a runoff would actually be between Balladur, then polling in first place, and Chirac, then polling in a distant second above Jospin. Here I have made an infobox for the hypothetical runoff between Balladur (who I assume comes in first place) and Chirac (who narrowly fends off Jospin - the Hubert Humphrey of French politics). In creating the map I gave Balladur the areas where he polled above a certain level in the first round, and gave Chirac some of the remaining areas. I then worked out the average lead Balladur had over Chirac throughout the campaign (around 5.45%) and thus had Balladur emerge victorious by around that margin (I guess due to his position as head of the cohabiting government as well as his backing by the UDF, the centrist party). I'd guess after this that Jospin would definitely not be the Socialist candidate in 2002 owing to his abysmal showing this cycle, perhaps this means Francois Hollande appears on the presidential scene nearly a decade earlier? Would the Chiracists get in behind Balladur in 2002, I'd presume so considering how Balladur supporters (like Sarko) were supportive of Chirac.

Chaban-Delmas prevails in 1974:

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1988 Gaullist lockout:

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The 1988 French presidential election on face value seems about as boring as the 1987 general election here in the UK or the US Presidential race in 1988. Like the two other races I've mentioned, this race had the possibility of becoming an interesting and competitive race at certain stages near the start of the campaign. Initially the right-of-centre had the potential of one of four candidates being the standard-bearer in the runoff with the Socialist Party nominee (note I didn't say President Mitterrand who was not completely assured of running for re-election and could have seen a challenge in the PS from Michel Rocard). The initial frontrunner could be said to be Chirac, who was quickly overtaken by the VGE's other Prime Minister, Raymond Barre. Barre, a political Independent at heart, was seen as the best bet for the 'new' non-Gaullist centre-right party the Union pour la démocratie française (UDF). The UDF had several potential candidates for the 1988 race, the first being former President VGE who at one stage was polled (along with Barre and another UDF candidate who I'll get to in a sec) taking in over 31% of the first round vote. VGE however opted to not run, as he was generally polling on his own between 4-9% and was excluded from several polls. The other UDF candidate was the Minister of Culture, Francois Leotard. Leotard, who would later serve as a the President of the UDF and was noted for selling off the TF1 television channel, was seen as a potential youthful nominee with his polling numbers shooting up from 4% in 1986 to 12% later on. Leotard was however to bleed in the polls after that and he would fall into line behind the more popular and high profile Barre. The alternative to the UDF, Chirac's Rassemblement pour la République (RPR) was the premier Gaullist entity after the demise of the old UDR party. The Gaullist had been languishing in presidential politics for some time, and could very well have fallen further had Chirac not achieved the coveted centre-right spot in the runoff. In 1974 the Gaullist candidate Jacques Chaban-Delmas (the man who was simultaneously too progressive and too conservative for France) had collapsed in the polls down to only 15.1% of the vote. Chirac's calling card campaign in 1981 saw him only poll 18.0% of the vote. To put this decline into perspective, de Gaulle and Pompidou were both able to poll >44% in their first rounds in 1965 and 1969 respectively. So it can't be understated how important it was for Chirac to leapfrog over the UDF's nominee for the race in 1988. This seemed to be a 50:50 situation with Chirac often polling a lead of less than 2 percent as the campaign wore on, while Barre on one occasion opened a polling lead of nearly 7 points over Chirac. Chirac was able OTL to leapfrog over Barre for a number of reasons. The first was the fact he was the incumbent Prime Minister which gave him the benefit of incumbency to an extent. Barre was also a wooden campaigner, as opposed to the dynamic and energetic Chirac. Barre's campaign meanwhile made a variety of gaffes despite its attempts to create a dynamic campaign focussed around moderate centrist policies. Chirac meanwhile created a modern campaign (something right-of-centre candidates had lacked in in previous contests), with individuals such as Sarkozy, Fillon and Michele Alliot-Marie. Chirac was also able to seize on the good press of his successful release of hostages in Lebanon in early May. Barre summarily tried to appeal to moderates and centrists, in a move which worked at first until they were hoovered up by Mitterrand who struck a surprisingly moderate and unthreatening tone to these voters. In the end Chirac won a narrow 3.5% lead over Barre, who was nestled in between Chirac and Jean-Marie Le Pen in the first round. In the second round Chirac began by closing the gap from around 20 points to around ten - yet he was constantly hampered by the fact that Mitterrand made the point of tying Chirac to his cohabitation and the fact he was Prime Minister (when Chirac wished to keep titles out of the race, which would have aided him overall). In the end the margin was 54-46, surprisingly close compared to the start of the campaign but still quite large.

I suppose it would have been quite easy for Barre to progress to the second round if a few factors went in his favour. The 'easiest' solution is that his bleeding of votes to Chirac doesn't occur, or Chirac runs a typically old fashioned Gaullist campaign and summarily cedes his position in the runoff to Barre. Barre could also poach some traditional Gaullist voters with his virulent opposition to cohabitation with Mitterrand, something Chirac was noticeably very much associated with. These combined points could easily see him in the second round. Now this is the point where I have to explain why there are two infoboxes below - its clearly not because I feel I need to have a Socialist win as it clearly doesn't seem like I'm biased against them in these last few boxes... The left infobox is more accurate IMHO as it goes off the second round polling with the question being who voters would pick of the two candidates - Mitterrand or Barre. The average of these polls came nicely to 53.5% for Mitterrand and 46.5% for Barre. At the stage these polls were taken Chirac was polling bellow Barre and also below his final result, so I factored this shift in and the end result was thus one approaching a 51-49 split, very similar to the two prior elections which featured a centrist and Mitterrand. The second box on the right meanwhile takes polling from Barre's peak in the polls- 1987 and early 1988 which when combined with Chirac's showing as well as around half of Le Pen's votes would produce a victory for Barre of around six points. I suppose this could be accounted for by the shifts in polling through the campaign as well as the popularity of the anti-establishment (cohabitation) message of the former Prime Minister. One interesting point that could come from a Barre Presidency would be Franco-Israeli relations. Now initially they had strong relations as Gaullist France was Israel's strongest backer and ally in the west - this changed with the Six-Day War in 1967 when de Gaulle flipped and became quite pro-Arab and refused aid to Israel. This created a frosty relationship between the two which eventually warmed over the Pompidou years. What makes Barre interesting is his alleged antisemitism. Barre would make a variety of statements which appeared at least supportive of antisemitism. The first was his response to an attempted bombing of a synagogue in 1980 which prematurely detonated and killed several non-Jewish bystanders. Barre remarked that it was a "hateful attack which wanted to strike at the Jews who were in that synagogue, and which struck innocent French people who were crossing the street." This seemed to infer that the Jews inside the synagogue were either not innocent or were not French. He was later criticised for his support for collaborationist Maurice Papon at the latter's trial - Papon the former Paris police chief had been involved with the shipping of thousands of Jews out of France during the war, he was also involved in various acts of torture and massacres of Algerians protesting for Algerian independence during the early 1960s. Oh and he was also Barre's Minister of Budget. Overall this could create some issues between President Barre and Prime Minister Shamir...

Quebec 1970 analogue

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1981 Runners Up

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This one has a fairly basic premise - the two OTL runners up in the 1981 Presidential election in France, Jacques Chirac of the RPR and Georges Marchais of the PCF are the ones who make it to the runoff instead. As usual here's a little bit of context of the 1981 race. VGE had been elected in 1974 with the support of much of the Gaullist right after their preferred candidate, Jacques Chaban-Dalmas, had crashed out in the first round. Out of fear of the election of the Socialist Mitterrand, many had voted for VGE out of hopes that he would prevent further liberalisation of French society. They were sorely mistaken. VGE supported moves to liberalise contraceptive and abortion laws (in the latter case both Prime Minister Jacques Chirac and the nominally liberal Justice Minister Jean Lecanuet both were uncomfortable at best with the proposed liberalisation, in the latter's face he refused to even appear in person in the National Assembly to support it). It was later estimated that with these laws VGE lost around a million votes which he would never regain. VGE also infuriated many by being a policy wonk and centralising policy decisions to himself. This left Chirac, his minister and various levels of civil servants within duties and very dissatisfied. Chirac resigned as PM in 1976 and instead constructed his own party, Rally for the Republic (RPR) in 1976 and proceeded to attack VGE's policies with considerable vitriol. In one particular incident in late 1978, Chirac would announce his 'Call of Cochin'. The document which was released from the Parisian hospital where he was being treated after a car crash, was strongly anti-European federalism and attacked VGE and his party as the "party of the foreigners". Thus the mood among Chriac and his supporters was one of baying for VGE's blood come 1981. OTL VGE won the 'primary' (IE being the right-of-centre candidate to make it to the runoff) but refused to advise his supporters to transfer over the VGE for the second round, thus dooming the centrist President. On the left the divisions were not so deep and saw Communist candidate Georges Marchais (foolishly) back Mitterrand for victory in the second round. In getting into bed with the PS in government, the PCF saw its support base dry up and it never recovered from the ~20% of electorate it had pre-1981.

Here I have Marchais and Chirac as the two candidates in the runoff. I assume VGE would begrudgingly back Chirac in the second round, being a patrician aristocratic man of honour who'd like to avoid seeing a Communist win. I'd guess Miterrand would back Marchais, though would be well aware that his time as the Presidential candidate and the face of the non-Communist left would soon be coming to an end - 3 runs and 3 failures - not a good sign. I reasoned that Chirac would win in such a runoff for a variety of reasons. The first is that I cannot see how a candidate who achieves the ~45% for of the right-of-centre vote and is running against a leftist could lose even under OTL conditions. Secondly I just cannot see the PCF winning, especially considering that this is their first runoff in the history of the 5th Republic (and since popular vote elections with the 1962 referendum). I got the result by going off early polling prior to the campaign between Mitterrand and VGE - which gave a rough average of 56-44 for the right-of-centre candidate. Better vote management from the Gaullist machine (VGE didn't like party machines) ensures a hefty Chirac victory on a scale not seen since the Gaullist dominated 1960s.

Mitterrand-Chirac reverse (Mitterrand remains conservative Catholic, Chirac remains a leftist)

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The two most important and significant figures of French politics in the latter part of the 20th century could be said to be Francois Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac - both of whom represented differing visions of how France should progress as the 21st century approached. Both men would, however, see the political of their respective youth's dog their careers for considerable periods of time. The elder Mitterrand, born into a conservative Catholic family first joined an organisation linked to Francois de la Rocque's far-right league organisation, the Croix de Feu (the Cross of Fire). The Croix de Feu had recently participated in the 6 February 1934 riots which had led to the fall of the second Cartel de Gauches (left-wing coalition). Mitterrand would later join the successor party, the Parti Social Francais (French Social Party); while not an explicitly far-right party (it was equally anti-communist and anti-fascist), it was definitely orientated towards Catholic social policy and right-wing corporatist and nationalist beliefs. The younger Chirac meanwhile gained his first foray into politics with his membership of the French Communist Party (PCF) which he remained a member of until 1962.

Mitterrand would serve in the French Army and resistance activities during WWII and would join the newly formed Parti républicain de la liberté (Republican Party of Liberty) in 1945. The PRL was formed in 1945 as the sole significant right-wing conservative party in France, after many French conservatives were discredited due to the large number of Vichy collaborators in their ranks. The party ensured that many like-minded conservatives could band together and work in their joint opposition to the involvement of the PCF in government. The party however remained relatively small and would fold up in 1951 - with the majority of the party joining the larger right-wing Centre National des Indépendants et Paysans (National Centre of Independents and Peasants; CNIP) or the Gaullist Rally of the French People. Mitterrand would join the former and would hold a variety of government positions throughout the 1950s in various non-Socialist governments - first as Minister of Veteran Affairs and alter as Minister of Overseas France. In 1958 he joined with his party in support of the return of de Gaulle, and for his support he was awarded the position of Minister of Veteran Affairs in the new Gaullist government of Michel Debre. Throughout the 1960s Mitterrand would become a high-profile government minister, first as the long-serving Minister of the Interior (from which he nearly resigned in 1962 due to his opposition to Algerian independence) and later as Minister of Justice during the brief Premiership of Maurice Couve de Murville. When CNIP split over the question of opposing the Premiership of Georges Pompidou, Mitterrand jumped ship to the Gaullist Party and would climb his way up the ranks in the party and was seen as a close ally to Pompidou. For his loyalty and support, Mitterrand was awarded the position of Prime Minister by Pompidou after the latter's victory in the 1969 Presidential election against a youthful agreed socialist candidate. Mitterrand would hold the position, from which he began to argue for 'Social Gaullism' - advocating a shift towards a more socially responsible economic model, while still retaining his credentials as a conservative orthodox Gaullist. Nonetheless his 'leftist' bend in economics ensured he was forced out as Premier in favour of the even more orthodox conservative Pierre Messmer.

When Pompidou died suddenly in 1974, Mitterrand was quick to stake his claim to the Gaullist throne, from which he would receive the support of the majority of the party's leadership - the Barons of Gaullism - as well as his former CNIP colleague, Valery Giscard d'Estaing (who was offered the position of Prime Minister under a President Mitterrand). Mitterrand faced the face of the new left in France - Jacques Chirac. Chirac had formed the new Republicans of the Left party in 1962 after he (along with likeminded reformist Roger Garaudy) split from the PCF due to a variety of reasons. Chirac, along with other smaller socialist and leftist entities would band together to form the Fédération de la gauche démocrate et socialiste (Federation of the Democratic and Socialist Left; FGDS) - a conglomerate of French leftist and non-Communist forces which sought to prevent the non-Communist left being locked out of the second round in a future Presidential race, as it was in 1965. In Chirac the party found a strong leader to head the new FGDS into the 1967 legislative elections. The elections saw the Gaullist Presidential majority bloodied, but still firmly in control. The left overplayed its hand and was beaten down in the 1968 legislative elections, though Chirac was praised for his spirited campaigning that year. He was thus hailed as the agreed candidate for the Presidential election held after de Gaulle resigned after a failed referendum in 1969. Coming from a significantly large polling deficit, Chirac was able to hold the margin to under 14%. This set him in good steed for the next Presidential election - presumably in 1976. In 1971 he would spearhead the formation of a new political party to replace the old, battered, FGDS, the Rally of the Left (Rassemblement de la gauche; RG) - of which he was to be the new leader.

Fast forward to 1974 and the runoff would see the conservative Catholic Mitterrand facing off against the pacifist post-communist Chirac. In the end it was just too soon for France to elect a socialist President, and Mitterrand was able to win a surprisingly large four point victory margin. Mitterrand's government continued with the tried and tested digrisme trade and economic policies of the de Gaulle years, as well as advocating for mild-Euroscepticism in line with the late General's souverainist beliefs. A quick succession of Prime Ministers would also serve under Mitterrand, first VGE who would leave to become a European Commissioner, he was replaced by the nationalist liberal Jacques Soustelle who remained until the 1978 legislative elections (which produced a majority for the President Majority) - he was then replaced by the controversial former Interior Minister Maurice Papon. Mitterrand would however push ahead with his 'Just Society' reforms and would see a 'socially responsible market and economy' phased in. Pity the world economy went into a slump at this time. Couple this with right-wing opposition to his proposed abolition of the death penalty, and his re-election was seen to be in question. Add to that the return of Chirac, now emboldened and the President of the General Council of Ile-de-France (de facto Mayor of Paris); things were said to be very difficult for the President, who by then was battling cancer as well as his rapidly heading south political fortunes. Conservative and middle France were shocked to the core when an ex-Communist and a self-professed pacifist was elected President in May 1981... I mean surely the bulldozer wouldn't be too bad, right?

Coluche '81

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In 1980 the French comedian, Coluche, during his one-man comedy show, announced his candidacy for the Presidency in the 1981 presidential election in France. The comedian and actor, known for being one of the first major comedians to use profanities as a major source of humour as well as being known for his irreverent sense of humour, was initially dismissed as a joke (not hard to see why). Then the Sunday newspaper Le Journal du Dimanche published a poll in mid-December 1980 which showed Coluche polling an astounding 16% among likely voters. This wasn't the first time that a satirist or comedian had ran for the Presidency, in 1965 the comedian Pierre Dac had announced his intentions to run for President via imitating political speeches. He was however urged to drop out, and did so due to his respect for President de Gaulle. Coluche campaigned under a variety of slogans such as "The only candidate who has no reason to lie to you!" or some more vulgar slogans such as "all together for the ass fuck with Coluche." Coluche gained the support of various intellectuals, as well as the CIDUNATI trade union and the Charlie Hebdo magazine. In other polls he polled between 10 and 12.5% in the polls. Coluche however began to suffer from a variety of issues during the campaign. He announced prior to the entrance of Georges Marchais, the charismatic and popular leader of the still significant French Communist Party. The political establishment began to get concerned at the popular support of Coluche, in particular his scathing attacks on President VGE. In some instances his speeches on radio and TV were cut or even censored. A sketch that involved the comedian was pulled, and the programme was threatened with being pulled altogether if it aired sketched with Coluche in it. It was also encouraged that media personalities not interview him - for instance the TV news presenter Patrick Poivre d'Avor (PPA, also notable for being the basis of the main puppet in the long running Spitting Image knock-off, Les Guignols de l'info) was encouraged to ignore and blank Coluche. Colche began a hunger strike to protest this form of unofficial censorship. The Elysee Palace soon after sent out letters urging Mayors not to give him their signatures (which would have ensured him a place on the ballot). It even got to the extent that a special cell is dedicated to the problem of Coluche at the Ministry of the Interior (I suppose if Budget Minister Maurice Papon was the one to deal with him, we'd never see him again...). Coluche was later sent death threats by a paramilitary group calling itself the 'Honour of Police' which had claimed responsibility for the assassination of left-wing intellectual and convicted felon Pierre Goldman in 1979. Soon after his campaign manager, Rene Gorlin was assassinated which concerned Coluche a lot (understandable). Even Mitterrand, who was understood to have been bleeding votes to Coluche was annoyed by his candidacy, as it threatened his position in the second round (a Chirac-VGE runoff, not that would be interesting...). Coluche summarily fails to gain the signatures of enough Mayors and was urged by a friend to drop out. Summarily he would, remarking that it was all a joke that Mitterrand had taken a bit too seriously (I guess a 1980s version of 'just a brank bro').

This box is basically a humorous look at a VGE-Coluche runoff. I think no one doubts that this would be a romp for VGE, who could very well surpass Chirac's margin over Le Pen in 2002 against Coluche. Would Coluche drop out if it became too much, perhaps? Then again his dislike for VGE was considerable, so he may stay in just to humiliate the President who could potentially cede >20% of the vote to what amounted to a joke candidate. For this box I simply took his highest polling figure of 16% and planted it against the entire right-of-centre vote in the first round (which comes out at slightly over 49%), then I worked out the percentages for each based out of that reduced turnout (to give you an idea of how low it is here, OTL turnout in the second round was 85.9%, here it is 57.3%). This is understandably a blowout for VGE and the centre-right, and is a miserable night for the left-of-centre in Frances and a fun night for the 4chan users of 1980s France. I awarded Coluche all departments that voted with above national average percentages for both the PCF and the PS. That comes out as three in total. I guess this would mean the end of Mitterrand as the standard bearer of the non-Communist left - I suppose it would be given over to someone like Michel Rocard or Pierre Mauroy. Would Coluche's political movement stay around and win any seats in the legislative elections soon after? I doubt it, but stranger things have happened. Perhaps reform of the two-round system may be proposed? Does this mean the UDF is a lot stronger than OTL (yes I guess) while the RPR is a lot weaker than OTL. Does this mean we get a Rocard-Barre showdown in 1988

Oh and for those of you wonder, 'MOU' stands for 'Mouvement ondulatoire unifié' or 'Unified Wave Movement, a satirical political party founded to support Pierre Dac for his Presidential run in 1965. Alas unlike other countries like the UK with the OMRLP, Canada with the Rhinoceros Party, New Zealand with the McGillicuddy Serious Party, Poland with the Beer-Lovers' Party, Germany with the The Party, the US with the Libertarian Party and Iceland with the Best Party (which won the Reykjavik city council lections in 2010...), France doesn't have a notable satirical party apart from the long gone and forgotten MOU party.

US 2016 analogue

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That's fantastic.

Dublin South as a hotbed of conservatism and anti-devolutionism is perfect.

Thank you very much!

Yes I feel Dublin South would be one of those areas that would vote for an alt!Tory candidate here even under 1997 conditions. One area I dithered over giving to one party or another was Dublin South-East, which I am 'casting', so to speak, as one of those formerly safe Tory seats that the LDs captured in 1997, yet which flipped back to the Tories in either 2010 or 2015. McDowell is probably the new MP for that seat in 2017, though I guess it is a highly competitive seat for the LDs & Tories, with a sizeable vote for other parties.
It was also purely coincidental that 4/6 Assembly leaders sit in the same regional constituency. A point of interest is that McDonald and Bacik both ran here for the same constituency seat - the Labour leader lost out this time around, in quite an embarrassing personal loss for the party leader, who nonetheless fell back on the regional seat.

I may do a box for the most recent Irish election which includes all of the rest of the island. Only issue is that its quite hard to 'paste' the NI constituencies on an Irish election map, which is quite infuriating.
 
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