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Which OTL one could have most easily survived its OTL downfall, and, probably less likely, had actual staying power?
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French First Republic constitutional settlements
- Thread starter OwenM
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Well, the two most boring answers are 'The Consulate'- there were so many other generals the conspirators considered using as a figurehead before going with Napoleon that you've got a wide range of possible outcomes; and the Directorate, which for all its reputation for stagnancy lasted longer than the more famous early Republican regimes.
I don't have a clear answer here, but just to jot down some thoughts: perhaps the way to approach this is to look at why the various regimes fell, and then work out how those problems might have been overcome earlier?
Let's also assume, just as a starting point, that we're not going with a POD before the declaration of the Republic (that would make things massively easier, so we can always go back to that later.)
So, key problems:
1. War! War! WAAAAARRRRR!
Any Republican government in search of longevity needs to resolve the problem of, to use the technical term, a newly minted metric shit tonne of foreign enemies. Robespierre was quite right to observe that no one likes armed missionaries, and rather than hiding behind the sofa and pretending not to be in, Europe's preferred resolution is to take the Fijian approach.
The Republican governments eventually dealt with this problem reasonably successfully, but it took years. But we need to presume that any stable Republic will have to find away to a: hit on and execute the highly successful set of military reforms of Carnot & co earlier and more thoroughly than OTL; and b: having built a successful military machine, roll its enemies back across the line and force them to a peace settlement- again, earlier than OTL.
2. civil WAR! WAR! WAAAAARRRRR!
The internal insurrections are just as threatening, if not more so, than any Austrian, Prussian or British army. You've got the Vendée, of course, but the Federalist Revolt (and assorted Girondin holdouts in Normandy and the like) were also serious challenges to any central government's claim to rule France.
The problem here, of course, is not just the insurrection but the fact that putting it down is itself an inherently destabilising act- adopt the brutality of the infernal columns or the Terror in Lyon and you do huge damage to the prospect of restoring civil society- but adopt too mild a response and you run the risk of yet another coup from the extremes.
The Federalists, of course, present an intriguing model for an entirely different type of French Republic- but I suspect you'd need a far earlier POD to make them strong enough to have a shot at a Federal French State.
3. Guillotines! Drownings! Mob violence! Oh boy!
Let's table the usual discussion of just how bad the Reign of Terror was in comparison to the Ancien Regime (and other contemporary governments,) and just observe that whatever else you say about it, centrally sanctioned violence makes it very difficult to return to any kind of constitutional settlement. Purges are probably inevitable in a revolutionary situation, but I think that by the time you arrive at the Great Terror it's become impossible for the government to either proceed to a 'normal' constitutional settlement or to hand over power peacefully.
This is not to fall into the old trap of 'Saint Danton, Evil Robespierre,' or to say that an Indulgent government could have kept power (or governed more gently.) But I think they probably were the last chance to form a 'Jacobin' government with anything like a broad base of support.
4. Talleyrand counts as a Catholic, right?
The social disruption caused by the break with the Church was enormous. It might well have been unavoidable, but things like the civil constitution drove a huge number of 'moderate' priests who had been sympathetic with the early revolution permanently into opposition. Now, a republican regime is almost always going to have this problem- but once you've got things like the dechristianisation campaign the Republic has put itself against many French people not just politically or morally but in terms of their daily lives. The fact that this was a campaign by people too extreme even for Robespierre and Saint-Just doesn't really matter- it's the face of the Republic. This isn't even getting into things like the massive disruption the break with the Church had on French schooling, hospitals, hospices and the like.
Some kind of conflict was probably going to happen- but if it can be moderated, it would do a huge amount to help the Republic diplomatically and in terms of the civil war.
5. Je suis Marius. Gaius Marius.
This goes back to the military reforms. The process of building up the best army in the world also makes the generals incredibly powerful, and the purges of officers makes the military distrustful of the central regime. This is going to be a difficult balance to strike- the war can't be won without giving new generals a degree of power and autonomy that the early Republic wasn't happy with, but Napoleon was merely the last in a line of generals whose army had turned into an independent base of support.
Not much to say except this will be a difficult needle to thread.
6. It's the economy, citizen!
Lastly, and in some ways most importantly: The economic crisis has to be dealt with. Here we run into a problem with a Republic that wins an early peace- no satellite republics to loot. A France that is at peace by 1794 or 1795 is still going to deal with massive inflation of the assignat, a deficit that hasn't ballooned so much as Zeppelined, and that famously simple revolutionary problem of land reform.
I'm not an economic historian, so I won't even attempt to suggest how to deal with all this.
These are just the problems that leap out at me- I haven't even got into the loss of the monopoly on the use of force, the divisions in the national assembly, the power of the street versus the legislature and so much more. Oh, and that old, highly simplified hit of 'Girondin versus Jacobin.'
The question, then, is starting in September 1792 is there a way to resolve most- or any- of these problems?
Um.
Well, I've got work to do, I'll let you handle the easy part.
I don't have a clear answer here, but just to jot down some thoughts: perhaps the way to approach this is to look at why the various regimes fell, and then work out how those problems might have been overcome earlier?
Let's also assume, just as a starting point, that we're not going with a POD before the declaration of the Republic (that would make things massively easier, so we can always go back to that later.)
So, key problems:
1. War! War! WAAAAARRRRR!
Any Republican government in search of longevity needs to resolve the problem of, to use the technical term, a newly minted metric shit tonne of foreign enemies. Robespierre was quite right to observe that no one likes armed missionaries, and rather than hiding behind the sofa and pretending not to be in, Europe's preferred resolution is to take the Fijian approach.
The Republican governments eventually dealt with this problem reasonably successfully, but it took years. But we need to presume that any stable Republic will have to find away to a: hit on and execute the highly successful set of military reforms of Carnot & co earlier and more thoroughly than OTL; and b: having built a successful military machine, roll its enemies back across the line and force them to a peace settlement- again, earlier than OTL.
2. civil WAR! WAR! WAAAAARRRRR!
The internal insurrections are just as threatening, if not more so, than any Austrian, Prussian or British army. You've got the Vendée, of course, but the Federalist Revolt (and assorted Girondin holdouts in Normandy and the like) were also serious challenges to any central government's claim to rule France.
The problem here, of course, is not just the insurrection but the fact that putting it down is itself an inherently destabilising act- adopt the brutality of the infernal columns or the Terror in Lyon and you do huge damage to the prospect of restoring civil society- but adopt too mild a response and you run the risk of yet another coup from the extremes.
The Federalists, of course, present an intriguing model for an entirely different type of French Republic- but I suspect you'd need a far earlier POD to make them strong enough to have a shot at a Federal French State.
3. Guillotines! Drownings! Mob violence! Oh boy!
Let's table the usual discussion of just how bad the Reign of Terror was in comparison to the Ancien Regime (and other contemporary governments,) and just observe that whatever else you say about it, centrally sanctioned violence makes it very difficult to return to any kind of constitutional settlement. Purges are probably inevitable in a revolutionary situation, but I think that by the time you arrive at the Great Terror it's become impossible for the government to either proceed to a 'normal' constitutional settlement or to hand over power peacefully.
This is not to fall into the old trap of 'Saint Danton, Evil Robespierre,' or to say that an Indulgent government could have kept power (or governed more gently.) But I think they probably were the last chance to form a 'Jacobin' government with anything like a broad base of support.
4. Talleyrand counts as a Catholic, right?
The social disruption caused by the break with the Church was enormous. It might well have been unavoidable, but things like the civil constitution drove a huge number of 'moderate' priests who had been sympathetic with the early revolution permanently into opposition. Now, a republican regime is almost always going to have this problem- but once you've got things like the dechristianisation campaign the Republic has put itself against many French people not just politically or morally but in terms of their daily lives. The fact that this was a campaign by people too extreme even for Robespierre and Saint-Just doesn't really matter- it's the face of the Republic. This isn't even getting into things like the massive disruption the break with the Church had on French schooling, hospitals, hospices and the like.
Some kind of conflict was probably going to happen- but if it can be moderated, it would do a huge amount to help the Republic diplomatically and in terms of the civil war.
5. Je suis Marius. Gaius Marius.
This goes back to the military reforms. The process of building up the best army in the world also makes the generals incredibly powerful, and the purges of officers makes the military distrustful of the central regime. This is going to be a difficult balance to strike- the war can't be won without giving new generals a degree of power and autonomy that the early Republic wasn't happy with, but Napoleon was merely the last in a line of generals whose army had turned into an independent base of support.
Not much to say except this will be a difficult needle to thread.
6. It's the economy, citizen!
Lastly, and in some ways most importantly: The economic crisis has to be dealt with. Here we run into a problem with a Republic that wins an early peace- no satellite republics to loot. A France that is at peace by 1794 or 1795 is still going to deal with massive inflation of the assignat, a deficit that hasn't ballooned so much as Zeppelined, and that famously simple revolutionary problem of land reform.
I'm not an economic historian, so I won't even attempt to suggest how to deal with all this.
These are just the problems that leap out at me- I haven't even got into the loss of the monopoly on the use of force, the divisions in the national assembly, the power of the street versus the legislature and so much more. Oh, and that old, highly simplified hit of 'Girondin versus Jacobin.'
The question, then, is starting in September 1792 is there a way to resolve most- or any- of these problems?
Um.
Well, I've got work to do, I'll let you handle the easy part.