zaffre
fdril
- Location
- Massachusetts
- Pronouns
- he/him
Been doing a little reading lately (fun, right?) and I’ve noticed that one of the foundations of the US election system is fairly flimsy w/ regards to butterflies. I refer, of course, to the Iowa Caucus.
Iowa has garnered fame, importance, and unholy ethanol subsidies by being first in the nation to get out and vote - and it was accidental.
Have Iowa not moved up so early - or moved up slightly less - and the caucus that will win national media attention for being first to go in the *new* system is Arizona, which went only five days after Iowa in 1972 in OTL. Arizona legislators are almost certainly going to realize the benefits, just as Iowa did, and let’s assume they determinedly occupy the top spot instead. Less corn, more cacti.
And this changes - everything. Not least in 1972, where the most successful liberal challenger in Arizona was not George McGovern but John Lindsay. Maybe Lindsay gets the nom, maybe Humphrey manages to oust the mayor who, after all, has rather weaker ties to the party than McGovern does. Maybe McGovern still gets the nomination.
But even if he does, come 1976 and instead of Carter nabbing a high profile finish in an early caucus - Mo Udall’s chances just skyrocketed.
This isn’t even getting into the more modern consequences of replacing a heavily white, heavily rural caucus with one that is, ah, not.
Anyone else have thoughts?
Iowa has garnered fame, importance, and unholy ethanol subsidies by being first in the nation to get out and vote - and it was accidental.
Have Iowa not moved up so early - or moved up slightly less - and the caucus that will win national media attention for being first to go in the *new* system is Arizona, which went only five days after Iowa in 1972 in OTL. Arizona legislators are almost certainly going to realize the benefits, just as Iowa did, and let’s assume they determinedly occupy the top spot instead. Less corn, more cacti.
And this changes - everything. Not least in 1972, where the most successful liberal challenger in Arizona was not George McGovern but John Lindsay. Maybe Lindsay gets the nom, maybe Humphrey manages to oust the mayor who, after all, has rather weaker ties to the party than McGovern does. Maybe McGovern still gets the nomination.
But even if he does, come 1976 and instead of Carter nabbing a high profile finish in an early caucus - Mo Udall’s chances just skyrocketed.
This isn’t even getting into the more modern consequences of replacing a heavily white, heavily rural caucus with one that is, ah, not.
Anyone else have thoughts?