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Ferdinand II dies in 1619 - Who is the Emperor?

Alex Richards

Domesday Clock update: 1.5 Williams till Midknight
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This one requires a bit of background info, so bear with me.

While the Second Defenestration of Prague in 1618 kicked off the Bohemian Revolt (and by extension the Thirty Years' War), it wasn't until the following year that matters really started coming to a head. Emperor Matthias died in March 1619, having been outmanoeuvred by various members of the family to ensure that Ferdinand (his cousin) had been established as his heir, including being elected King of Bohemia in 1617. Historically his election as Emperor was one of the triggers for the formal repudiation of this act and the decision to grant the crown to Frederick V of the Palatinate, with all the consequences thereof.

But despite his eventual victories, Ferdinand started the revolt off very much on the back foot, and in June 1619 (while the Electors were gathering in Nuremberg no less) a Bohemian rebel force besieged Vienna, trapping Ferdinand in the Hofburg. He was supposedly rescued by the timely arrival of a force of cavalry. But what if that force hadn't arrived? Ferdinand is unlikely to have been able to hold out indefinitely, and in the kerfuffle perhaps the Archduke meets his death (defenestrated?)

The ripples from this are fascinating. Perhaps the Protestant elites of Lower and Upper Austria decide this is the trigger to join the Confederation being organised in Prague (albeit much like Moravia and Silesia potentially not entirely willingly). Ferdinand's eldest son, Johann-Karl, was 14, but was to die in December of that year. The future Ferdinand III was 11, Leopold Wilhelm 4. Presumably Johann Karl inherits Inner Austria briefly before it passes on to Ferdinand, both under a regency council. There's a possibility here for another family war within the Habsburgs.

Then there's Bohemia- Frederick V was only elected King in August of 1619, though it's perhaps still the most likely thing to happen. On the one hand, there's no question of rebellion- Bohemia's crown was elective, so with Ferdinand dead there is no legal monarch and the estates are theoretically free to elect their ruler. On the other, the various Habsburgs and Maximilian II of Bavaria are sure to object, though whether any is strong enough on their own (or even together) to force the question is another matter.

And then there's the elephant in the room over the potential union of the Electoral Palatinate with the Kingdom of Bohemia- and during an electoral vote for the next Emperor no less. Maximilian II was already seeking an electoral title himself, perhaps there's the opportunity for a deal to be made?

So with no clear Habsburg heir to Ferdinand and the Bohemian question in the air, it's possibly something of an open seat for the Empire. I think there's 4 potential candidates for the Imperial Title:

The Continuity Candidate: The Electors essentially just plump for whichever Habsburg emerges as the strongest candidate. This is perhaps the least likely option, if only for the fact that it's quite difficult to tell which one this could be, and between the disastrous reign of Rudolf II, the 7 year reign of Matthias and the Brothers' War splitting the Habsburg family, they're not looking very stable at this point- especially now the candidate everyone was being lined up to back is dead.

The Catholic Contender: The three ecclesiastical electors would obviously prefer a Catholic ruler, and with Bohemia potentially in abeyance (Frederick either not being recognised as its King, or only being considered to have one vote?) there's an even split between Catholic and Protestant electors. Perhaps Maximilian II ends up as Emperor as part of some sort of grand deal- Frederick confirmed as King of Bohemia with all the territories of the Confederation, Maximilian gets an Electoral title and the Empire to preserve the religious status quo. This one perhaps requires an unusual degree of restraint fro Frederick V.

The Religious Radical: Is there is a possibility for the strongly Calvinist- near millenarian in fact- Frederick V to acquire Bohemia and the Empire at the same time? He'd certainly be angling for it, but his lack of allies in the Empire would probably make this less likely (though the apparent act of god in ensuring that Ferdinand is dead could sway things a bit). Overall, I suspect this one is just too much at once for the Elector Palatine.

The Protestant Peacemaker: Not mentioned so far is Johann Georg of Saxony, a Lutheran moderate who placed peace and the law above religion. Perhaps between the ultra-Catholic Maximilian and the Ultra-Calvinist Frederick he could emerge as the compromise candidate offering the hope of guiding the Empire through difficult times with a sense of stability.

Thoughts everyone?
 
Now, I'll better be able to supply an answer when I've read Peter Wilson's book.

It seems to me you've left one player out, aside from the archbishops, the elector of Brandenburg. Now, as a Calvinist and just coming out of a losing fight to switch his people from Lutheranism to Calvinism, plus the lovely divided allegiances by having territories under the overlordship of the king of Poland, he's probably even more unacceptable than Frederick V himself as a candidate. But he is in an interesting situation himself as he is not going to live out the year, and there is significant disagreement with his wife and his son and heir over the prospective marriage of his daughter to Gustav Adolf.

This seems to me like a situation where the Thirty Years' War does really kick in, with the Electors being so hopelessly divided that they probably can't ensure to meet in a place safe for an election to happen. Furthermore, even if they met, they just can't agree on who they want for an Emperor. So I think this is one of the times the HRE could have been thrown back into an interregnum.

This, of course, is the perfect situation for wild dreamers to perk up and put up their names for contention, similar to some truly side players could propose their names for the Kingship of Poland a bit later. I certainly see Christian IV putting his name forward as a 'honest broker', sufficiently removed not to interfere too directly with the Catholics, powerful enough to give some cover for the Protestants. But some Baden margraves or Brunswick dukes might say they're innocuous enough and a safe pair of hands for a transition.
 
Now, I'll better be able to supply an answer when I've read Peter Wilson's book.

It seems to me you've left one player out, aside from the archbishops, the elector of Brandenburg. Now, as a Calvinist and just coming out of a losing fight to switch his people from Lutheranism to Calvinism, plus the lovely divided allegiances by having territories under the overlordship of the king of Poland, he's probably even more unacceptable than Frederick V himself as a candidate. But he is in an interesting situation himself as he is not going to live out the year, and there is significant disagreement with his wife and his son and heir over the prospective marriage of his daughter to Gustav Adolf.

This seems to me like a situation where the Thirty Years' War does really kick in, with the Electors being so hopelessly divided that they probably can't ensure to meet in a place safe for an election to happen. Furthermore, even if they met, they just can't agree on who they want for an Emperor. So I think this is one of the times the HRE could have been thrown back into an interregnum.

This, of course, is the perfect situation for wild dreamers to perk up and put up their names for contention, similar to some truly side players could propose their names for the Kingship of Poland a bit later. I certainly see Christian IV putting his name forward as a 'honest broker', sufficiently removed not to interfere too directly with the Catholics, powerful enough to give some cover for the Protestants. But some Baden margraves or Brunswick dukes might say they're innocuous enough and a safe pair of hands for a transition.

True on that front. Although of course the Elector of Brandenburg could potentially be bought off with some sort of deal allowing him to place administrators into Pomerania, considering that the House of Griffins was clearly dying out (though perhaps that doesn't go through until after Francis dies in 1620?)

A Thirty Years War where the ownership of Bohemia isn't actually in question and it's much more of a religious clash could be very interesting.
 
My romanticism says The Elector Palatine - which would really make for a remarkable multi-volume AH epic! (Adds this to "possible" list - for consideration after my proposed Celtic Trilogy)
 
With Ferdinand II dead might the Protestant Union be more inclined to support Frederick V when he claims the crown of Bohemia, and not sign the Treaty of Ulm in 1620? This could keep Brandenburg in Frederick V's camp at least, though Saxony would still likely be opposed.
 
With Ferdinand II dead might the Protestant Union be more inclined to support Frederick V when he claims the crown of Bohemia, and not sign the Treaty of Ulm in 1620? This could keep Brandenburg in Frederick V's camp at least, though Saxony would still likely be opposed.

Possible indeed- while it might be a persistent rumour that Frederick planned everything, he technically wouldn't be a usurper to anything other than possibly Lower/Upper Austria if they're included in the Bohemian Confederation. Plus he'd be in a much more powerful and influential position.

Of course that might just make Brandenburg more wary of backing him.

And of course there's the issue that Frederick might end up starting a war (with Maximilian?) anyway in his millenarian goals.
 
What are the odds that England get pulled kicking and screaming into a continental war with this change in conditions?
 
What are the odds that England get pulled kicking and screaming into a continental war with this change in conditions?

James I viewed himself as some sort of 'universal peacemaker' but refused to release the troops required to actually get the forces in theatre required to get any respect on this. I suspect he'd still want to follow this course of action even if it's Frederick's war for the Empire rather than securing the independence of the Palatinate, but it's possible he would have greater difficulty in overruling the domestic calls to join the war.

We have, of course, got the added issues of the Spanish Road- Spain is desperate to prevent the Alpine passes and the Swabian route from being closed to them leaving them less able to resupply the Netherlands. I suspect that Further Austria becomes a de facto Spanish puppet, and France will be having an interesting time deciding who to back.

I think that with Spain having difficulties further south, it's likely that the Fall of Breda is avoided altogether- potentially the Dutch are able to push further south, but this could also mean the House of Orange doesn't get the chance to come back to power in the United Provinces.

And of course there's all the local fights in Hesse and Westphalia to get into the mix.
 
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