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Could the DNVP take power in Germany?

T

Torten

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The DNVP were the primary Nationalist and Conservative party in the Weimar Republic until they were eclipsed in around 1930 by the Nazi party. They managed to retain some influence during the last years of the Weimar Republic, and ended up disbanding after Hitler passed the Enabling act in 1933.

In the 1924 Reichstag Election, the DNVP managed to do relatively well and made modest gains in the election, holding 103 seats, about a fifth of the seats in the Reichstag. However, in the 1928 election, they lost 30 seats, in part due to the rise of the Nazi party and other nationalist parties, upset among the party members for joining the Weimar coalition, and their general incompetence. Had the DNVP remained out of the Weimar coalition, might this have allowed them to retain more support and possibly supplant the Nazi party as the primary Nationalist party in the early 1930s, thus possibly allowing them to gain control during the Great Depression?
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
If the NSDAP are outlawed, the DNVP becomes the parliamentary repository of NSDAP voters. I can't see Alfred Hugenberg filling the Hohenzollern-shaped hole in German politics the way Hitler did.
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If they could convince Hindenburg to step down in the 1932 Presidential Election, the DNVP might be able to get Crown Prince Willhelm to run - his father forbid him because he preferred Hindenburg - if Hindenburg isn't running Willhelm might be able to convince his father otherwise. Willhelm would certainly have a good chance of winning, and if he loses by a small margin might be enough for the Reichwehr/Der Stalhelm carry out a coup in the following months.
 
Ricardolindo said:
Actually, I'm not sure if the DNVP would get Nazi voters. Strangely, most Nazi voters were former anti-clerical middle class liberals.
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The DNVP was a conservative party and in the 1928 election it lost quite a few voters to parties such as the Christian-National Peasants and Farmers Party over issues such as the failure of agricultural tariffs to tackle rural decline in Germany - this was something that the DNVP heavily pushed for and was one of the main reasons they continued in Government, despite the fact this meant they were involved in a Government which signed the Locarno treaties, which led to them losing seats in the 1928 election.

Their best hope for entering government, I suspect would either be after the collapse of the Weimar Republic due to some sort of military coup, the backing of the serving President, or as part of a front such as the Harzburg front, which existed for a short period in 1931 with the Nazis, and the aforementioned Peasants party. In an ATL, it could include some sort of German Christian Nationalist Workers Party, which might appeal to such voters.
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
So, who might they vote for if NSDAP was barred from standing?

The DSP? The DVP?

I'm sensing a big win for the SPD or the KPD, with the fascist bloc vote disintegrating.
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I think if the NSDAP remained a small party some other far-right party would rise in its place. Simply because there was a lot of appetite for something like that in early 1930s Germany. Maybe one of the Völkisch parties could fill the Nazi's void.
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
So, who might they vote for if NSDAP was barred from standing?

The DSP? The DVP?

I'm sensing a big win for the SPD or the KPD, with the fascist bloc vote disintegrating.
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Catalunya said:
I think if the NSDAP remained a small party some other far-right party would rise in its place. Simply because there was a lot of appetite for something like that in early 1930s Germany. Maybe one of the Völkisch parties could fill the Nazi's void.
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Without someone as charismatic as Hitler, I doubt any fascist party would have become very powerful. Most likely, the moderate parties would have managed to keep power and, like the Nazis in our timeline, would have gotten credit for the economic recovery, read https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/make-germany-remain-democratic.473820/post-19379611.
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
I'm sensing a big win for the SPD or the KPD, with the fascist bloc vote disintegrating.
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I wouldn't be so sure though. Part of the NSDAP's appeal was that they were staunchly against Communism and Socialism (regardless of their name) and yet they were able to trick people into believing they were actively trying to improve the lives of the working peoples. I personally think that if there is no NSDAP, the government simply continues down the military dictatorship path started by Hindenburg in 1930, possibly with a restoration of the Kaiserreich at some point. Alternatively, a Deutsches Landvolk coalition comprising the smaller right-wing parties (such as the CNBL) and the DNVP may eventually take power under Hugenberg, but that may not be achievable before the unfortunate, almost inevitable disintegration of Weimar democracy.
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
Who says it's inevitable?
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Weimar democracy was dead by 1930, three years before the NSDAP were able to begin their reign of terror. Considering how divided Weimar society and politics was, combined with the number of attempted coups against the government and the inherent instability of the Weimar parliamentary system and the incoming Great Depression, I do not have the confidence to say that if Weimar democracy had survived 1930 it wouldn't have simply collapsed in 1931 or 1932.
 
Venocara said:
Weimar democracy was dead by 1930, three years before the NSDAP were able to begin their reign of terror. Considering how divided Weimar society and politics was, combined with the number of attempted coups against the government and the inherent instability of the Weimar parliamentary system and the incoming Great Depression, I do not have the confidence to say that if Weimar democracy had survived 1930 it wouldn't have simply collapsed in 1931 or 1932.
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In the post that I linked to, David Tenner disagrees. He thinks that, as late as 1933, the Weimar Republic had a chance of surviving.
 
Arthur_Phuxache said:
Of course, though, if the NSDAP is banned in 1928 or 1929 and Hitler deported, the outcome of the 1930 Federal election, and the 1932 Presidential election are very different.
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Weimar's last democratic government ended on the 27th March 1930, before the 1930 Federal election, which was held in September. After this, Hindenburg began to rule the country by decree. In any case, I don't think an election in 1930 would have produced a result any less chaotic than the one in 1928 (especially with Communists and the DNVP being more successful than in OTL's 1930), and Hindenburg would have continued to rule by decree.
 
So the limiting case for Weimar democracy surviving is in 28 or 29 or maybe earlier? I guess if you screw with the Great Depression (Maybe US economic and monetary policy is less of a mess and it stays a smaller scale recession or at least firmly on the recession rather than depression side of things?) or something like that things go a little better.
 
Venocara said:
Weimar's last democratic government ended on the 27th March 1930, before the 1930 Federal election, which was held in September. After this, Hindenburg began to rule the country by decree. In any case, I don't think an election in 1930 would have produced a result any less chaotic than the one in 1928 (especially with Communists and the DNVP being more successful than in OTL's 1930), and Hindenburg would have continued to rule by decree.
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Thing is, as David Tenner explained, without losing his right-wing voters to Hitler, Hindenburg wouldn't have brought down Bruning.
 
Ricardolindo said:
Thing is, as David Tenner explained, without losing his right-wing voters to Hitler, Hindenburg wouldn't have brought down Bruning.
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Thing is, Bruning completely relied on Hindenburg to pass his laws because he did not have the support of the democratically elected Reichstag, and Hindenburg relied on Article 48 to do that, which allowed him to circumvent the Reichstag. Democracy died in Weimar Republic when Hermann Muller resigned as Chancellor.
 
Venocara said:
Thing is, Bruning completely relied on Hindenburg to pass his laws because he did not have the support of the democratically elected Reichstag, and Hindenburg relied on Article 48 to do that, which allowed him to circumvent the Reichstag. Democracy died in Weimar Republic when Hermann Muller resigned as Chancellor.
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Hindenburg is still going to die and, like Hitler in our timeline, Bruning will get credit for the economic recovery. Thus, democracy will be restored.
 
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