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Corbyn leads largest party: Does he get to become PM

Bolt451

Sometimes things that are expensive...are worse
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So a bit of recent history. Lets say following a 2017 GE that goes much worse for May or some other scenario where Jeremy Corbyn leads Labour to a plurality of seats but falls short of a majority do you think the other parties would accept him being PM as well as Labour leader or would they decide on a different candidate? This mostly comes to mind with Swinson leading up to the 2019 GE.

Two scenarios being

a) a Labour minority govt with Lib Dem or SNP Supply and Confidence
b) a full on coalition government with either the Lib Dems, SNP, Some unite to Remain monstrosity, etc etc
 
So a bit of recent history. Lets say following a 2017 GE that goes much worse for May or some other scenario where Jeremy Corbyn leads Labour to a plurality of seats but falls short of a majority do you think the other parties would accept him being PM as well as Labour leader or would they decide on a different candidate? This mostly comes to mind with Swinson leading up to the 2019 GE.

Two scenarios being

a) a Labour minority govt with Lib Dem or SNP Supply and Confidence
b) a full on coalition government with either the Lib Dems, SNP, Some unite to Remain monstrosity, etc etc

Lib dems wouldn't survive a coalition with corbyn in 2017. There is a reason farron kept ruling out another coalition.

The problem with a remain coalition is 2017 is before labour pivoted to the second ref so if they were to accept one at the behest of the minor parties, it would be a major capitulation.

Supply and confidence deal with the snp for a year and then another election is probably his best bet.
 
This is something I'm exploring with Summer of Roses.

Corbynsceptisim in the PLP would be an issue, but my instinct is that Labour MPs will be so gobsmacked with the fact Labour came out ahead, as even some of his fierciest internal critics were in 2017 even in that defeat, that they don't try to torpedo his premiership, at least not by defying the whip on a confidence-related bill (yet). That's the rebellious PLP dealt with (for, say, a couple months before the experience wares off).

As for the Lib Dems, I agree with Gary that it's political poison for them, and they know this, so they're off the table for now. The SNP would not accept a coalition, I don't think Labour would either, and it'd on the whole be quite weird for an outwardly separatist party to be given, say, a ministerial position. Confidence and supply with the SNP, then, with one of two major concessions: Devo Max (e.i.; Holyrood gets it's long-coveted tax-raising powers) or a second indy ref.

I think, personally, that Labour is in a strong enough position (and, depending on where Labour's extra seats come from, the SNP in a weaker enough one) that Labour could reject a 2nd ref and instead give them Devo Max. This allows the SNP to rebuild their support base from within Holyrood. Needless to say, this deal would be very much controversial with Scottish Labour MPs and the fundamentalist wing of the SNP, but I think with enough arm-twisting they'd get on board; Labour has a very clear gain in terms of getting into government, the SNP could in theory refuse to help them, and hope that the chaos makes indy more popular. But one has to wonder whether those many Central Belt voters - who had only been voting Labour religiously until, what, 2 years prior? - would feel betrayed by the SNP preventing a progressive government. I reckon they would, or at least, I reckon Labour and the SNP's strategists' would both think so, and I think that threat would get the SNP on board along with Devo Max.
 
By 2019, there was a lot of chatter that parties wouldn't accept Corbyn as PM and it'd have to be someone else - but that's two years later, and in a context where he hasn't just beaten May and isn't getting first shot at coalition now while the Lib Dems have just now failed to cut through while the SNP shrunk. So they'll be willing to talk, though a coalition is out because the Lib Dems will go "fuck no" and Labour will also go "fuck no" re the SNP. And if it's 2017, this is when Corbyn's still "I will Brexit but better" so the Lib Dems aren't going to be regular partners and that leaves the SNP like @bd_roberts says.

But then Corbyn has to pull off a Brexit deal that needs enough Labour, SNP, and Tory MPs to back, LOOK OUT!
 
But then Corbyn has to pull off a Brexit deal that needs enough Labour, SNP, and Tory MPs to back, LOOK OUT!

Given voting patterns on amendments in 2018-19 about May's Deal he might be able to pull off a common market deal, but probably with a second referendum tied in (perhaps to get Lib Dem votes)

That's assuming the EU gives him that deal too.
 
Given voting patterns on amendments in 2018-19 about May's Deal he might be able to pull off a common market deal, but probably with a second referendum tied in (perhaps to get Lib Dem votes)

That's assuming the EU gives him that deal too.

If it's just a standard Common Market access, not trying to carve out exceptions or the like, that would probably be doable.
 
Labour's Brexit stance going into 2017 does talk a lot about keeping all the labour, consumer, and environmental protections from pre-2016; remaining in all the European schemes it can; no real changes to goods standards; low tariffs; and "no return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and that there is no change in the status or sovereignty of Gibraltar". So if this is what Corbyn's going for, well, on paper I'd think he could negotiate a deal with the EU because most of it boils down to "we'll just carry on being your mate, following EU standards etc", depending on what they think of immigration changes. And IIRC, that was considered a big sticking point with the EU.

So is this going to pass the 2017 Commons?
 
Labour's Brexit stance going into 2017 does talk a lot about keeping all the labour, consumer, and environmental protections from pre-2016; remaining in all the European schemes it can; no real changes to goods standards; low tariffs; and "no return to a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland and that there is no change in the status or sovereignty of Gibraltar". So if this is what Corbyn's going for, well, on paper I'd think he could negotiate a deal with the EU because most of it boils down to "we'll just carry on being your mate, following EU standards etc", depending on what they think of immigration changes. And IIRC, that was considered a big sticking point with the EU.

So is this going to pass the 2017 Commons?

I think it's possible. I think it's also possible that the same issues which May faced are faced by Corbyn; a fractious response from their own party.

Any deal simply isn't staying in the EU. I imagine certain Europhiles might feel emboldened by being in the governing party ("we can actually put a stop to this madness, now"), and might push for a second referendum/"stop Brexit wholesale" as a red line for whether or not they support whatever Corbyn's stance ends up being. The kind of deal outlined above is also easy for the Tories to spin as "barely even Brexit", what with the level of status quo being kept, which might spook some MPs in the Leavier seats into pushing for something of a cleaner break.
 
If 2017 turns out this well, then I think the most likely situation is LOTO being drunk enough on their own success to go for a second election after making a big song and dance of the smaller parties not supporting a programme that is entirely copy and pasted from the Labour manifesto.

If that results in pretty much the same situation as before, then I think everyone would begrudgingly come to the table and accept some sort of compromise involving Single Market membership, some more money and powers for Holyrood, perhaps as part of some kind of federal arrangement that Labour was previously half assed about. There'd probably be some money for a few pet Lib Dem projects too.

Everyone would agree to disagree on a referendum for the time being, but with sizeable sections of all parties not happy with that situation, that would probably only hold till 2019 at the latest, when Labour fail to get a Brexit deal through.
 
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