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Cities that could have been

Ooh, I did one of these a while back. Do they have to have existed IOTL? Because if so, how about the city of Kilwa? Connected by a small land bridge to the mainland that appeared in low tide, Kilwa's fortuitous position made it a much better East African trade center than Mogadishu, and it became Africa's primary trading port; its wealth came from the exchange of gold and iron from Great Zimbabwe, to which it had exclusive trade access, and from other parts of Southern Africa, along with ivory and slaves from the mainland, and textiles, jewelry, porcelain and spices from Asia and its exclusive trade access to Madagascar. It quickly began to attract many merchants and immigrants from further north, including Persia and Arabia. As the capital of the Kilwa Sultanate, Kilwa owned or claimed overlordship over the mainland cities of Malindi, Inhambane and Sofala, and the island-states of Mombasa, Pemba, Zanzibar, Mafia, Comoro and Mozambique (plus numerous smaller places, most notably all the trading posts on the coast of Madagascar)- all the way from Cape Correntes in the south to Barawa in the north. Essentially, Kilwa was the undisputed historical capital of East Africa and the Swahili Coast.

However, Kilwa was unfortunate enough to be suffering political turmoil, and a succession crisis, at the time when the Portuguese arrived. The most successful ruler of the Kilwa Sultanate was probably Emir Muhammad Kiwabi, who ruled Kilwa for nearly two decades through several Sultans, including himself at one point, from 1478 to 1495. Throughout his long 'reign', Emir Muhammad fought an on-again and off-again battle with his nephew, Hassan ibn Suleiman (son of an earlier vizier). Muhammad had, in fact, tried to install Hassan as Sultan a couple of times, but it met tremendous resistance from the population of Kilwa. Eventually, Emir Muhammad decided that, in the interests of constitutional propriety and civic peace, Kilwa's Sultans should always come from the royal dynasty, not families of viziers- thwarting Hassan's ambitions, and effectively making Kilwa a constitutional monarchy. The last Sultan installed by Emir Muhammad before his death was the royal prince al-Fudail ibn Suleiman, in 1495.

The man who succeeded to Muhammad's post, Emir Ibrahim, helped al-Fudail crush the ambitious Hassan once and for all, in a great battle outside Kilwa. But not long after this battle, Emir Ibrahim reportedly betrayed and murdered Sultan al-Fudail. Rather than declare himself sultan, Emir Ibrahim seized power in a coup, maintaining the title of Emir and claiming to be exercising rule in the name of a son of an earlier, long-dead Sultan of the old royal dynasty. Emir Ibrahim's brutal military coup, and the proclamation of his dictatorship, was met with shock not only in Kilwa, but in the vassal cities as well. Emir Muhammad had recognized the importance of constitutional propriety for peace in the Kilwa Sultanate; but with that groundwork dead and buried, most of the local governors of the Kilwa vassal cities, many who were either relatives or had owed their positions to Emir Muhammad and the royal dynasty, refused to acknowledge Emir Ibrahim's rule, and began charting an independent course for their own city-states. As a result, Emir Ibrahim's dominion only covered the city of Kilwa itself, and Mozambique Island, when Vasco da Gama and Portuguese arrived in 1497.

In 1500, the 2nd Portuguese India Armada, under Pedro Álvares Cabral, visited Kilwa itself, and attempted to negotiate a commercial and alliance treaty with Emir Ibrahim. At least one Kilwan nobleman, a certain Muhammad ibn Rukn ad Din (known to the Portuguese as Muhammad Arcone), certainly advised Emir Ibrahim to sign a treaty with Cabral and strike up an alliance with the Portuguese in 1500, and to secure their naval assistance to bring their vassals back under its central rule. IOTL, the Emir refused; and for his pains, Muhammad Arcone was given up as a hostage to the Portuguese by the Emir, who then refused to ransom him back. The Portuguese instead pursued separate treaties with Malindi, Mozambique and Sofala, before bringing their fleet to bear on Kilwa itself two years later, extorting a sizable tribute from emir Ibrahim and securing these vassal cities' permanent break away from the Sultanate to become vassals of Portugal instead, splintering the Kilwa Confederacy apart and ending Kilwa's dominance. In 1505, Francisco de Almeida brought his fleet into the harbor of Kilwa, and landed some 500 Portuguese soldiers to drive Emir Ibrahim out of the city, installing Muhammad Arcone on the throne, as a Portuguese vassal. Remembering constitutional proprieties, Arcone insisted that Micante, the son of the late sultan al-Fudail, be his designated successor. The Portuguese erected a fortress (Fort Santiago) on Kilwa and left a garrison behind, under the command of Pedro Ferreira Fogaça to keep an eye on things.

Portuguese rule was not very welcome. Particularly grating was the imposition of Portuguese Mercantilist laws on the sultanate, forbidding all but Portuguese ships to carry trade to the principal coastal towns - essentially putting many leading Kilwan merchants out of business. The Portuguese didn't stay very long, and in May 1506, Muhammad Arcone was lured and assassinated by the sheikh of Tirendicunde, who was a relative of Emir Ibrahim. As per the pre-arranged succession rule, Micante ascended to the throne. But the Portuguese governor of Kilwa, Pêro Ferreira Fogaça, upon seeing that Micante's ascension was supported by the old faction of Emir Ibrahim, concluded he wouldn't do as a Portuguese puppet, deposing Micante and installing Hussein ibn Muhammad, a son of Arcone, as the new sultan. Chaos immediately broke out in the city of Kilwa; the supporters of Micante & Emir Ibrahim seized control of much of the city, driving Sultan Hussein and Arcone's supporters to seek refuge by the Portuguese Fort Santiago. Street fighting broke out, and the entire city was soon engulfed in flames. In the chaos, streams of Kilwan residents fled the city, leaving it practically deserted, save for a handful of roving partisan gangs and the terrified Portuguese garrison.

Hearing of the chaos in Kilwa all the way over in India, the Portuguese viceroy Almeida dispatched a magistrate, Nuno Vaz Pereira, to inquire into the matter. Arriving in late 1506, Pereira convened for the competing sultans Micante and Hussein, and asked them to present their cases. Pereira ruled in favor of Hussein, confirming him as sultan, but softened the blow by relieving the unpopular commander Fogaça and lifting the mercantilist restrictions on Kilwan shipping. A small number of the Kilwan refugees returned, and a modicum of peace resumed, but only briefly. The newly installed Sultan Hussein resolved to lead the Kilwan army against Tirendicunde, in a revanchist campaign to enact retribution for his father's murder. The town was brutally sacked, and numerous prisoners taken. Hussein then dispatched emissaries to all the vassal cities of the Kilwa Sultanate, ordering them to return to obedience, or else meet the same fate of destruction. Fearing that Hussein's spate of tyranny might jeopardize Portuguese interests in East Africa, Viceroy Almeida reversed Pereira's decision, deposed Hussein and reinstated Micante.

But by then, it was too late, and Kilwa had lost virtually all of its population, influence and wealth. Deeming the situation in Kilwa to be too precarious, the Portuguese abandoned their outpost in the city, which they had initially earmarked as their preferred capital of Portuguese East Africa, established a port and naval base on Mozambique Island in 1507 and relocating there instead. And in 1512, an Arab mercenary captured Kilwa, with virtually no resistance. The city regained some of its earlier prosperity, but in 1784 was conquered by the Omani rulers of Zanzibar. After the Omani conquest, the French built and manned a fort at the northern tip of the island, but the city itself was abandoned in the 1840s, and is now effectively extinct.

Had its demise been averted though, even through the ATL route of signing a treaty and striking up an alliance with the Portuguese in 1500, which would led to it almost inevitably losing its sovereignty, but entrenched its position as TTL's capital of Portuguese East Africa, Kilwa would have at the very least been as large, populous and 'great' as Mombasa is today in a worst-case scenario, and realistically at least as 'great' as Dar es Salaam; remaining the largest city in East Africa, the largest and most populous Swahili speaking city in the world, and the economic, financial capital of East Africa. A Global Gamma World City at the very least, without a shadow of a doubt.

And had it managed to avoid the succession crisis caused by Emir Ibrahim's coup, and to keep the Kilwa Confederacy intact- making the city the capital of a stabilized federal kingdom with secure control over the entirety of the Swahili region, along with Mozambique, Madagascar and the Comoros, and placed in pole position to secure dominion over the regions of Zambia, Zimbabwe, South Africa, Namibia and Botswana through its trade monopoly with the Kingdom of Mutapa, with easy access to gunpowder and firearms technology from its Asian, Arab and potentially European trade partners- Kilwa could well have become the official capital of Africa, and an undisputed Global Alpha World City, comparable to or greater than Mumbai, Kuala Lumpur, Johannesburg, Jakarta or Bangkok IOTL.
 
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