Ricardolindo
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What if Outer Manchuria had been heavily settled by Chinese and Koreans before Russia could take it? Without Russian control over the region, would Japan get Sakhalin?
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Chinese Outer Manchuria
- Thread starter Ricardolindo
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I mean, why would Russia stop if a peripheral territory had more people? It's not like they cared about wiping out peoples everywhere else in Siberia.
Ricardolindo
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I mean, why would Russia stop if a peripheral territory had more people? It's not like they cared about wiping out peoples everywhere else in Siberia.
They weren't able to take Inner Manchuria because it was heavily settled by Chinese and Koreans.
I Saw A Red Sky
He killed my ma, he killed my pa, but 🤓
They weren't able to take Inner Manchuria because it was heavily settled by Chinese and Koreans.
They weren’t able to annex Manchuria directly cause it was an integral part of the Qing state, not because it was settled.
I think in this scenario you have to give a reason for mass settlement of Siberia before anything else.
Ricardolindo
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They weren’t able to annex Manchuria directly cause it was an integral part of the Qing state, not because it was settled.
I think in this scenario you have to give a reason for mass settlement of Siberia before anything else.
Outer Manchuria is also Manchuria and was also an integral part of the Qing state. However, it had less Chinese and Korean settlers than Inner Manchuria.
As for how to get such settlement, have the Qing adopt a more consistent policy in favor of settlement. In our timeline, at times, they tried to force such settlement. At other times, they tried to prevent it.
I Saw A Red Sky
He killed my ma, he killed my pa, but 🤓
Outer Manchuria is also Manchuria and was also an integral part of the Qing state.
It wasn’t though.
As for how to get such settlement, have the Qing adopt a more consistent policy in favor of settlement.
Why would they?
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Outer Manchuria is also Manchuria and was also an integral part of the Qing state. However, it had less Chinese and Korean settlers than Inner Manchuria.
As for how to get such settlement, have the Qing adopt a more consistent policy in favor of settlement. In our timeline, at times, they tried to force such settlement. At other times, they tried to prevent it.
I think you have to do some more reading on this because your making assumptions and they're just wrong
Ricardolindo
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It wasn’t though.
Why would they?
What, exactly, are we defining as "integral"? To my knowledge, Outer Manchuria was not as integrated in the Qing state as Inner Manchuria but it was more integrated than Sakhalin.
Regardless, the Qing could adopt a more consistent policy in favor of Chinese and Korean settlement of Outer Manchuria out of fear of losing it to Russia. They did favor it at times.
Ricardolindo
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I think you have to do some more reading on this because your making assumptions and they're just wrong
I admit I am far from an expert on the history of Manchuria and I'd like to know how, exactly, my statements are wrong.
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Literally for the exact reason @SoldierOfChrist is telling you you're wrong.I admit I am far from an expert on the history of Manchuria and I'd like to know how, exactly, my statements are wrong.
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Ah, well actually there wasn't a legal distinction between Outer and Inner Manchuria before the Russian conquest. Manchuria as a whole was administered separately from the rest of China- there were active efforts to try and restrict Han Chinese emigration from the main body of China for example- and had a degree of autonomy due to the historic status of the Qing as Manchus themselves.
But while there certainly was less settlement in the area Russia gained compared to the areas they didn't (and this only increased after 1860), by far and away the biggest reasons for Inner Manchuria remaining Chinese were the simple logistics of it being much closer to Beijing and the other major population centres, and the influence of other powers.
Much of the northern areas of Manchuria were de facto annexed by Russia with the construction of the Trans-Manchurian railway in the years after the Boxer rebellion, but by that point formal annexation ran into the problem of everyone else in Europe having their spheres of influence as well and nobody particularly wanting to trigger a full-on carve up of China. And then of course the Russo-Japanese war happened which hindered Russia's goals in the area regardless.
But while there certainly was less settlement in the area Russia gained compared to the areas they didn't (and this only increased after 1860), by far and away the biggest reasons for Inner Manchuria remaining Chinese were the simple logistics of it being much closer to Beijing and the other major population centres, and the influence of other powers.
Much of the northern areas of Manchuria were de facto annexed by Russia with the construction of the Trans-Manchurian railway in the years after the Boxer rebellion, but by that point formal annexation ran into the problem of everyone else in Europe having their spheres of influence as well and nobody particularly wanting to trigger a full-on carve up of China. And then of course the Russo-Japanese war happened which hindered Russia's goals in the area regardless.
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I suppose the bigger question here is: Why wasn't the Treaty of Aigun signed?
Was it because Russia was weaker, or the Qing were stronger?
Both are plausible, but to avoid Aigun you probably need a change a few decades earlier. You can imagine a terrible 1850s for Russia- a Crimean War where Sweden and Prussia join, Sevastopol and Krondstadt both fall, there's risks of a palace coup... but the problem is that surely any new government would be looking to claw back prestige, so they'd leap at the chance to gain territory in the east from China.
Likewise, even if you avoid the Taiping- and the Nian et al- it's still hard to see how the Qing are in a position to resist Tsarist pressure for an Aigun-style treaty, even if it's delayed a few years.
Even both at once might not be enough. Perhaps you need a Qing that embark upon Self-Strengthening a great deal earlier; I'm not sure that dense settlement of Outer Manchuria and retention by China is possible without some form of rail link.
Was it because Russia was weaker, or the Qing were stronger?
Both are plausible, but to avoid Aigun you probably need a change a few decades earlier. You can imagine a terrible 1850s for Russia- a Crimean War where Sweden and Prussia join, Sevastopol and Krondstadt both fall, there's risks of a palace coup... but the problem is that surely any new government would be looking to claw back prestige, so they'd leap at the chance to gain territory in the east from China.
Likewise, even if you avoid the Taiping- and the Nian et al- it's still hard to see how the Qing are in a position to resist Tsarist pressure for an Aigun-style treaty, even if it's delayed a few years.
Even both at once might not be enough. Perhaps you need a Qing that embark upon Self-Strengthening a great deal earlier; I'm not sure that dense settlement of Outer Manchuria and retention by China is possible without some form of rail link.
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Honestly, best PoD I can think of is something which devastates the Indian opium industry in the late 18th Century leading to, well, any other good being the one which the EIC decides to use to try and make money on trade with China in- anything which isn't so destructive to people would probably have been less profitable but also vastly more acceptable to the Chinese government.
At that point China's got less internal disputes, less external disputes and also Britain has a vested interest in China as a trading partner, and while I certainly wouldn't rule out 'sure we'll help you against Russia, can we have a better trade deal and some treaty ports', I'd say there's a strong possibility that Britain is now actively interested in backing China against Russia in Manchuria.
At that point China's got less internal disputes, less external disputes and also Britain has a vested interest in China as a trading partner, and while I certainly wouldn't rule out 'sure we'll help you against Russia, can we have a better trade deal and some treaty ports', I'd say there's a strong possibility that Britain is now actively interested in backing China against Russia in Manchuria.
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Actually, a timeline where the equivalent of phylloxera destroys poppy fields across Asia in the 1700s would be absolutely fascinating in its broad implications.
I could see potential for an essay collection looking briefly at biological PODs like that. Like if the boll weevil had arrived in America a century earlier and the impact that would've had on the slavery debate in the US if cotton plantations were becoming unviable. @Jared of course made this kind of POD the main starting gun for Lands of Red and Gold, but otherwise it's underdone.Actually, a timeline where the equivalent of phylloxera destroys poppy fields across Asia in the 1700s would be absolutely fascinating in its broad implications.