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Charles II and the Mazarinette Match

Alex Richards

Domesday Clock update: 1.5 Williams till Midknight
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So to summarise from the discussions sparked by @Ciclavex earlier in the PMQs thread, Charles II's marriage to Catherine of Braganza represented a rather crucial move for the Portuguese nobility who were, as yet, unrecognised as independent from Spain across Europe, giving them foreign backing, legitimacy and assisting them in being recognised as a continuation of the Kingdom of Portugal from before the Iberian Union rather than a new splinter.

However, just months before the restoration Charles had attempted to get the hand of Hortense Mancini, niece of the Chief Minister of France, Cardinal Mazarin, and thus with access to what was the largest fortune in France after the Royal treasury. Mazarin refused, thinking Charles would not amount to anything, then attempted to backpedal when the Restoration happened and was shot down by the newly enthroned King.

So lets say Mazarin is a little less dismissive, or some news arrives from England which suggests the Commonwealth under Richard Cromwell isn't long for this world, or for whatever other reason he doesn't block the marriage. Charles proceeds to marry Hortense (lets assume for the sake of argument that much like with Catherine IOTL this proceeds as a secret Catholic marriage followed by a public Anglican ceremony) either before the restoration or shortly afterwards and secures from this a large financial dowry from the Cardinal.

The potential effects on the British Isles from this are quite profound (not least the possibility of Charles fathering a legitimate heir with Hortense), but possibly still more so are the effects on Portugal.

Sans the renewed English alliance, the third stage of the Portuguese Restoration War is going to be significantly different- the Portuguese had been successful in holding off the Spanish in minor skirmishes and getting some diplomatic support from the French and the Commonwealth along with a significant victory at Linhas de Elvas in 1659, but the Spanish were still trying to force a single decisive victory, launching a new offensive in 1662 and taking the city of Évora. English reinforcements proved crucial to defeating this army the following year, and this essentially marked the beginning of the end for Spanish hopes in Portugal.

At the same time Portugal had been fighting a long long war against the Dutch for dominance in the East Indies, Africa and Brazil, which by 1660 had seen the Dutch essentially victorious in the East and the Cape of Good Hope, while the Portuguese were able to keep hold of Angola, Mozambique and, most significantly, Brazil. These were hard fought victories however- the Dutch had occupied northern Brazil for 14 years between 1630 and 1654, as well as taking Loanda for a while. Meanwhile the Salsette Company and BEIC had been eyeing Bombay Island for a number of years.

So the potential consequences. Perhaps the smallest change would be Charles offering a treaty with the Portuguese in return for Bombay, effectively creating 'OTL but with a different Queen' and slightly different dates. More interesting however is the possibility that Portugal sees severe set backs in the early 1660s, which probably doesn't see the Spanish successful in retaking the country, but could easily delay any attempts to get an alliance and potentially gives the Dutch an opening to return to the offensive in the Atlantic- perhaps retaking Loanda or even making another bid for Northern Brazil. Spain might be able to claim the Portuguese Empire in any final peace treaty, England could perhaps claim more of Portuguese India as their price for an alliance, and of course this could all run hard into the events that would, historically, create the Second Anglo-Dutch War.

Thoughts?
 
If the timing is better than in OTL, Charles II could be expressing his interest in marrying Mazarin's younger niece Hortense Mancini (b 1646, so 16 years his junior) after, not before his return to the UK as King became a realistic possibility - and thus at a time when an alliance with him would seem more advantageous for Mazarin.

In OTL Charles was apparently interested in her and made an offer for her to Mazarin some time in 1659, ie probably after Cromwell's son Richard had been deposed as Lord Protector by his generals but before the English Commonwealth collapsed into civil war and a round of coups. 1659 also saw a failed Royalist revolt which seemed to show that the country's elites and army were still solidly anti-Royalist ,and the revival in Royalist fortunes only followed a number of months of rising instability among Richard's successors whose rival ambitions and ideals led to political deadlock. In any case, thanks to Cromwell's peace-treaty (1655) and then alliance (1657) with Spain, Mazarin's foe which had tried to overthrow M, Cromwell had required Mazarin to throw Charles out of France so he was living in the Spanish Netherlands (ie modern Belgium) in 1659-60 and hiring Spanish help to try to attack the UK - using Dunkirk as a pirate base until Cromwell occupied it. So Mazarin was hostile to him in 1659 and had no call to marry him off to his niece, and that year Spain signed a peace with France so he did not fear Charles allying with Spain any longer.

General Monck, commanding the Cromwellian army in Scotland , then invaded in January 1660 and brushed aside the crumbling and fractured English army leadership as he marched on London demanding that the dismissed 'Rump' Parliament be recalled. He could not trust the other republicans in Army or Parliament so he bowed to rising popular demonstrations for a 'free' Parliament, ie first readmitting to the 'Rump' those MPs thrown out by the Army in 1648 for not wanting Charles I beheaded , then a general election free from army interference. These actions (Feb- March 1660) enabled moderate Royalists to link up with Monck and get back into Parliament - and the 'snowball effect' towards Restoration as the only way to get stability began. Had Charles been interested in Hortense at this point, not in 1659, he would have seemed more of a 'winner' - though as Charles had not been in France since 1665 he does not seem to have met Hortense in person yet.
If a different Tl means that Charles does not offer for Hortense until early spring 1660 his restoration is already seeming quite possible as Monck and the 'moderates' in London want his help to keep the army republicans and Puritan religious zealots out of power and are negotiating quietly with the Royalists. The election of a new Parliament in March-April 1660 includes many 'closet' and some open Royalists, and a botched republican revolt then leads to Monck and co. speeding up Charles' recall to provide a legal, stable new government. At this juncture, an offer by Mazarin of Hortense with a large dowry (which in real life he made but Charles turned him down as he had not been seen as good enough in 1659) might be acceptable and would help Charles' rocky finances. Charles would probably be advised to ask Hortense to convert to Anglicanism, though in real life he got away with his Portuguese bride staying Catholic in 1662.

Hortense married at 15 in real life in 1661 so this would be normal for the era - and she had children so Charles doesn't have to worry about an infertile wife. Providing a son and heir who will be brought up Protestant means no alarm at who Charles' heir will be, and his younger brother Duke James of York's conversion to Catholicism and later, second Catholic marriage are not so crucial ; nor is there a controversy over whether Charles' eldest illegitimate son James, Duke of Monmouth (b 1649) might be a safer Protestant heir and the resulting claim that Charles had really secretly married his mother Lucy Walter. There is no 'Exclusion Crisis' over the Whig party trying to use Parliament to force Charles to make Monmouth, not James of York his heir in 1679-81; Monmouth is not accused of treason and a regicide plot and forced into exile and so does not invade and be executed when Charles dies, unless Charles' legitimate son (half-Italian and possibly a magnet for intriguing Catholic zealots ) decides to become Catholic and ally to France. No does Charles II have to close Parliament down in 1681 and rule more as an autocrat,unless they are annoyed at H's spending or her Catholic friends and want the latter purged.


If 'Charles III' is sensible, the Stuart monarchy is not overthrown in 1688 and the 'Glorious Revolution' never happens - unless a Stuart-French alliance at a time of heightened politico-religious tension and perhaps a move to rule without (or to rig) Parliament causes William of Orange to stage a Dutch invasion claiming C III is a French puppet. But would the intelligent, dynamic, ambitious, and high-spending Hortense as Queen make Royal extravagance and high-living court festivities even more contentious and annoy Parliament, ditto her circle of French and English Catholic courtier friends? Would she tolerate the serially unfaithful Charles II's many mistresses if he got bored with her in order to keep her status as Queen and her income, or end up walking out on him after a failed ultimatum to abandon her most obvious rivals? Assuming Louis XIV can rely on Hortense as a French ally, he has no need to send another top French court lady to England to seduce and influence Charles (Louise de Keroualle in OTL), but will it be Hortense who is criticised as a 'French spy' instead? Hortense (rumoured to be bisexual) could make the Restoration court an equally interesting but different place from real life.
 
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