- Location
- Derbyshire
So to summarise from the discussions sparked by @Ciclavex earlier in the PMQs thread, Charles II's marriage to Catherine of Braganza represented a rather crucial move for the Portuguese nobility who were, as yet, unrecognised as independent from Spain across Europe, giving them foreign backing, legitimacy and assisting them in being recognised as a continuation of the Kingdom of Portugal from before the Iberian Union rather than a new splinter.
However, just months before the restoration Charles had attempted to get the hand of Hortense Mancini, niece of the Chief Minister of France, Cardinal Mazarin, and thus with access to what was the largest fortune in France after the Royal treasury. Mazarin refused, thinking Charles would not amount to anything, then attempted to backpedal when the Restoration happened and was shot down by the newly enthroned King.
So lets say Mazarin is a little less dismissive, or some news arrives from England which suggests the Commonwealth under Richard Cromwell isn't long for this world, or for whatever other reason he doesn't block the marriage. Charles proceeds to marry Hortense (lets assume for the sake of argument that much like with Catherine IOTL this proceeds as a secret Catholic marriage followed by a public Anglican ceremony) either before the restoration or shortly afterwards and secures from this a large financial dowry from the Cardinal.
The potential effects on the British Isles from this are quite profound (not least the possibility of Charles fathering a legitimate heir with Hortense), but possibly still more so are the effects on Portugal.
Sans the renewed English alliance, the third stage of the Portuguese Restoration War is going to be significantly different- the Portuguese had been successful in holding off the Spanish in minor skirmishes and getting some diplomatic support from the French and the Commonwealth along with a significant victory at Linhas de Elvas in 1659, but the Spanish were still trying to force a single decisive victory, launching a new offensive in 1662 and taking the city of Évora. English reinforcements proved crucial to defeating this army the following year, and this essentially marked the beginning of the end for Spanish hopes in Portugal.
At the same time Portugal had been fighting a long long war against the Dutch for dominance in the East Indies, Africa and Brazil, which by 1660 had seen the Dutch essentially victorious in the East and the Cape of Good Hope, while the Portuguese were able to keep hold of Angola, Mozambique and, most significantly, Brazil. These were hard fought victories however- the Dutch had occupied northern Brazil for 14 years between 1630 and 1654, as well as taking Loanda for a while. Meanwhile the Salsette Company and BEIC had been eyeing Bombay Island for a number of years.
So the potential consequences. Perhaps the smallest change would be Charles offering a treaty with the Portuguese in return for Bombay, effectively creating 'OTL but with a different Queen' and slightly different dates. More interesting however is the possibility that Portugal sees severe set backs in the early 1660s, which probably doesn't see the Spanish successful in retaking the country, but could easily delay any attempts to get an alliance and potentially gives the Dutch an opening to return to the offensive in the Atlantic- perhaps retaking Loanda or even making another bid for Northern Brazil. Spain might be able to claim the Portuguese Empire in any final peace treaty, England could perhaps claim more of Portuguese India as their price for an alliance, and of course this could all run hard into the events that would, historically, create the Second Anglo-Dutch War.
Thoughts?
However, just months before the restoration Charles had attempted to get the hand of Hortense Mancini, niece of the Chief Minister of France, Cardinal Mazarin, and thus with access to what was the largest fortune in France after the Royal treasury. Mazarin refused, thinking Charles would not amount to anything, then attempted to backpedal when the Restoration happened and was shot down by the newly enthroned King.
So lets say Mazarin is a little less dismissive, or some news arrives from England which suggests the Commonwealth under Richard Cromwell isn't long for this world, or for whatever other reason he doesn't block the marriage. Charles proceeds to marry Hortense (lets assume for the sake of argument that much like with Catherine IOTL this proceeds as a secret Catholic marriage followed by a public Anglican ceremony) either before the restoration or shortly afterwards and secures from this a large financial dowry from the Cardinal.
The potential effects on the British Isles from this are quite profound (not least the possibility of Charles fathering a legitimate heir with Hortense), but possibly still more so are the effects on Portugal.
Sans the renewed English alliance, the third stage of the Portuguese Restoration War is going to be significantly different- the Portuguese had been successful in holding off the Spanish in minor skirmishes and getting some diplomatic support from the French and the Commonwealth along with a significant victory at Linhas de Elvas in 1659, but the Spanish were still trying to force a single decisive victory, launching a new offensive in 1662 and taking the city of Évora. English reinforcements proved crucial to defeating this army the following year, and this essentially marked the beginning of the end for Spanish hopes in Portugal.
At the same time Portugal had been fighting a long long war against the Dutch for dominance in the East Indies, Africa and Brazil, which by 1660 had seen the Dutch essentially victorious in the East and the Cape of Good Hope, while the Portuguese were able to keep hold of Angola, Mozambique and, most significantly, Brazil. These were hard fought victories however- the Dutch had occupied northern Brazil for 14 years between 1630 and 1654, as well as taking Loanda for a while. Meanwhile the Salsette Company and BEIC had been eyeing Bombay Island for a number of years.
So the potential consequences. Perhaps the smallest change would be Charles offering a treaty with the Portuguese in return for Bombay, effectively creating 'OTL but with a different Queen' and slightly different dates. More interesting however is the possibility that Portugal sees severe set backs in the early 1660s, which probably doesn't see the Spanish successful in retaking the country, but could easily delay any attempts to get an alliance and potentially gives the Dutch an opening to return to the offensive in the Atlantic- perhaps retaking Loanda or even making another bid for Northern Brazil. Spain might be able to claim the Portuguese Empire in any final peace treaty, England could perhaps claim more of Portuguese India as their price for an alliance, and of course this could all run hard into the events that would, historically, create the Second Anglo-Dutch War.
Thoughts?