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Discuss this article by @Thande here.
That does have longer term consequences, though, given how Roosevelt would need to be a major figure to lead to the Progressive split (at least in a recognisable form).I do really think that had McKinley lived the US would have essentially taken more or less the same course as it under Roosevelt, albeit a bit less muscularly and ebulliently - the discussion of the Great Man theory is quite germane here, isn't it?
I do think that an incredibly muscular and outspoken Vice President who's likely run for the Senate a la Andrew Johnson or returned to Albany after his Vice Presidency likely has some ammunition to lead some sort of Progressive faction within the Republican party - whether it's large enough to beat Charles Fairbanks at the convention in 1904 or achieve the nomination later on is an open question, but TR was a force of nature who's really not discountable, period. I could plausibly see Roosevelt winning in 1904 and alienating Hanna and things essentially taking on their OTL course.That does have longer term consequences, though, given how Roosevelt would need to be a major figure to lead to the Progressive split (at least in a recognisable form).