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Canada-United States Election Conversions

Doing the other way around for this one is troublesome because 2004 in the US was so two-party compared to even 2000. The merging of the Alliance and PCs in Canada to form the new Conservative Party helps, but there is no really good option for modelling the NDP. I considered taking a portion each from Kerry and Bush, but that's hard to justify in a regional sense. In the end, I put together all the minnow candidates from 2004 and based it on that, which does unfortunately mean there's not much state-to-state variation in the NDP vote within a 'province'. I would prefer a more scaled way of doing it, but haven't figured one out yet.

Also these numbers may add up to (slightly) more than 100% as I used the non-minnow Other US vote to judge both the Green and Other Canadian votes. I should probably just have put them together, but I did want to count the Greens separately for future purposes.

Alberta

Kansas
Conservative 62.7%
Liberal 20.3%
NDP 10.2%
Green 7.5%
Other 0.7%

New Mexico
Conservative 50.5%
Liberal 32.7%
NDP 10.0%
Green 7.2%
Other 0.7%

Oklahoma
Conservative 66.2%
Liberal 18.1%
NDP 8.8%
Green 6.1%
Other 0.7%

Texas
Conservative 61.7%
Liberal 21.9%
NDP 9.5%
Green 6.8%
Other 0.7%

Another predictable Conservative landslide with NM being the closest state. And yes, the Greens did do that surprisingly well in the real Alberta in 2004.

British Columbia

California
Conservative 35.8%
Liberal 29.1%
NDP 26.5%
Green 7.2%
Other 2.2%

Oregon
Conservative 38.6%
NDP 26.4%
Liberal 26.2%
Green 7.1%
Other 2.5%

Washington
Conservative 37.0%
Liberal 27.6%
NDP 26.9%
Green 7.6%
Other 2.2%

Those right-wing victories still look odd on the US Left Coast, but this time they're more reasonably based on pluralities, with the opposition sharply divided between the Grits and Dippers.

Manitoba

Arizona
Conservative 36.5%
Liberal 36.4%
NDP 22.9%
Green 3.3%
Other 1.5%

Colorado
Liberal 39.1%
Conservative 33.4%
NDP 23.3%
Green 3.7%
Other 1.5%

Idaho
Conservative 50.1%
NDP 23.3%
Liberal 22.3%
Green 3.9%
Other 1.3%

Montana
Conservative 40.8%
Liberal 30.6%
NDP 24.6%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.3%

Nevada
Liberal 39.9%
Conservative 32.2%
NDP 23.4%
Green 3.8%
Other 1.8%

Utah
Conservative 53.2%
NDP 24.5%
Liberal 18.1%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.5%

Wyoming
Conservative 50.6%
NDP 24.1%
Liberal 21.1%
Green 4.4%
Other 1.5%

A much more divided Montana than before! The Liberals are much stronger in some places compared to others. It is ironic that in the real US 2004 election, Bush carried Colorado and Nevada, his weakest states here...
 
Newfoundland & Labrador

Maine
Liberal 48.3%
Conservative 31.7%
NDP 17.9%
Green 3.3%
Other 0.5%

New Hampshire
Liberal 45.0%
Conservative 36.0%
NDP 16.8%
Green 2.2%
Other 0.5%

Vermont
Liberal 53.7%
Conservative 25.9%
NDP 17.9%
Green 3.2%
Other 1.0%

Again the Liberals dominate, with New Hampshire being the best Conservative score.

Saskatchewan

Iowa
Conservative 39.4%
Liberal 29.9%
NDP 23.0%
Green 3.3%
Other 4.9%

Minnesota
Conservative 37.2%
Liberal 31.8%
NDP 23.4%
Green 3.6%
Other 5.0%

Nebraska
Conservative 55.4%
NDP 23.6%
Liberal 13.4%
Green 3.8%
Other 4.9%

North Dakota
Conservative 52.4%
NDP 23.9%
Liberal 16.2%
Green 4.2%
Other 4.8%

South Dakota
Conservative 49.5%
NDP 23.9%
Liberal 19.2%
Green 4.2%
Other 4.8%

Conservative victories across the board, but the first two states are very different to the latter three! (Reflecting a divide in the OTL US result, of course, though Bush did narrowly carry Iowa). The large Other vote in Saskatchewan this election was apparently independents.

Now for the easy one-state provinces:

New Brunswick
Connecticut
Liberal 44.6%
Conservative 31.1%
NDP 20.6%
Green 3.4%
Other 0.3%

Northwest Territories & Nunavut
Hawaii
Liberal 43.6%
NDP 30.7%
Conservative 16.2%
Green 4.0%
Other 5.6%

Nova Scotia
Massachusetts
Liberal 39.7%
NDP 28.4%
Conservative 28.0%
Green 3.3%
Other 0.7%

Prince Edward Island
Rhode Island
Liberal 52.5%
Conservative 30.7%
NDP 12.5%
Green 4.2%
Other 0.1%

Yukon
Alaska
Liberal 45.7%
NDP 25.7%
Conservative 20.9%
Green 4.6%
Other 3.2%
 
Ontario

Delaware
Liberal 45.8%
Conservative 30.4%
NDP 18.1%
Green 5.3%
Other 1.3%

District of Columbia
Er, breaks maths again. Let's call it a 50% Liberal lead and have done with it, to avoid saying the Tories somehow got a negative voteshare.

Illinois
Liberal 47.3%
Conservative 29.2%
NDP 17.9%
Green 5.1%
Other 1.3%

Indiana
Conservative 44.6%
Liberal 31.7%
NDP 18.0%
Green 5.2%
Other 1.3%

Maryland
Liberal 48.4%
Conservative 27.6%
NDP 18.2%
Green 5.5%
Other 1.4%

Michigan
Liberal 43.7%
Conservative 32.5%
NDP 18.1%
Green 5.3%
Other 1.3%

New Jersey
Liberal 45.4%
Conservative 30.9%
NDP 18.0%
Green 5.2%
Other 1.3%

New York
Liberal 50.8%
Conservative 24.8%
NDP 18.7%
Green 5.9%
Other 1.3%

Ohio
Liberal 41.1%
Conservative 35.5%
NDP 17.7%
Green 4.9%
Other 1.3%

Pennsylvania
Liberal 43.4%
Conservative 33.1%
NDP 17.8%
Green 5.0%
Other 1.3%

West Virginia
Conservative 40.7%
Liberal 35.6%
NDP 17.9%
Green 5.1%
Other 1.3%

Wisconsin
Liberal 42.1%
Conservative 34.0%
NDP 18.0%
Green 5.3%
Other 1.4%

The Conservatives break into "Ontario" for the first time, swinging Indiana and West Virginia (beginning its sharp realignment path). The Liberals still dominate most of the "province" though.

For Quebec I have used the Republican vote for both the Conservative and BQ vote. The Bloc saw a resurgence in 2004 due to a scandal involving the Liberals.

Quebec

Alabama
BQ 53.1%
Liberal 27.2%
Conservative 8.6%
NDP 4.6%
Green 3.8%
Other 0.7%

Arkansas
BQ 46.2%
Liberal 34.9%
Conservative 8.6%
NDP 5.1%
Green 4.3%
Other 0.6%

Florida
Bloc 44.3%
Liberal 37.4%
Conservative 8.2%
NDP 4.6%
Green 3.9%
Other 0.7%

Georgia
BQ 49.2%
Liberal 31.7%
Conservative 9.1%
NDP 4.6%
Green 3.8%
Other 0.7%

Kentucky
BQ 50.6%
Liberal 30.0%
Conservative 9.4%
NDP 4.7%
Green 3.9%
Other 0.6%

Louisiana
BQ 48.2%
Liberal 32.5%
Conservative 8.9%
NDP 4.7%
Green 4.0%
Other 0.9%

Mississippi
BQ 50.5%
Liberal 30.1%
Conservative 9.3%
NDP 4.6%
Green 3.8%
Other 0.8%

Missouri
BQ 45.3%
Liberal 36.4%
Conservative 8.4%
NDP 4.5%
Green 3.7%
Other 0.6%

North Carolina
BQ 47.6%
Liberal 33.9%
Conservative 8.8%
NDP 4.3%
Green 3.5%
Other 0.6%

South Carolina
BQ 49.3%
Liberal 31.2%
COnservative 9.1%
NDP 4.9%
Green 4.1%
Other 0.8%

Tennessee
BQ 48.3%
Liberal 32.8%
Conservative 8.9%
NDP 4.6%
Green 3.8%
Other 0.6%

Virginia
BQ 45.6%
Liberal 35.8%
Conservative 8.5%
NDP 4.6%
Green 3.9%
Other 0.7%

The BQ fightback shuts the Liberals completely out--whereas in the more granular parliamentary seats of OTL, the Liberals still retained 20-odd seats in Quebec, essential for the shaky minority government they would manage to form after this election.

Now to map it...
 
Excellent work as always, Thande.

Now, for provincial governments in Atlantic Canada around 2004, we had:
*Newfoundland and Labrador: PC Government (2003-2007) led by Danny Williams, who later became known Canada-wide for his "Anyone But Conservative" (ABC) campaign
*New Brunswick: PC Government (2003-2006)
*Nova Scotia: Minority PC Government (2003-2006)
*PEI: PC Government (2003-2007)

So, unlike the federal election results, here the Progressive Conservatives maintained (or formed, in the case of Newfoundland) running the Government. Transferring that to actual US states, that means that the PC Party would retain a hold on southern New England (CT = NB, MA = NS, and RI = PEI), thus here the decoupling of state and federal parties like the OTL decoupling of provincial and federal parties would be to New England's advantage. Newfoundland however is tricky, so as with 2000 I'll have to check the political party strength of each state:

Maine: Democratic Governor and Democratic-majority state legislature
New Hampshire: Republican Governor up to 2004, and Democratic Governor after 2004; Republican-majority state legislature
Vermont: Republican Governor; Republican-minority state legislature up to 2004 and Democratic majority state legislature after 2004

Now, most of these cases are two-party affairs in northern New England which are also two-party affairs in Newfoundland (save metro St. John's, which is the only stronghold of the NDP). This creates a few problems, as Maine had at least 1 Green Party state rep and Vermont has its Progressive Party. Now, if we keep in mind what Thande came up with for the 2000 election, since as in OTL the merger of the federal Alliance and PC Parties did not necessarily mean that the latter's provincial parties had to go along (and by and large they did not), while on the other hand ignoring the Alliance factor in this equation (as by and large the Alliance did not organize at the provincial level in Atlantic Canada), then we get a more simple solution: GOP = PC, DEM = Liberal, and VPP = NDP; as with the federal election, the Greens are separate, in this case to reflect Maine. I'm also combining the few independents together (there were a few) with the NDP to boost the NDP's party strength in Maine but kept apart in Vermont for this reason (Vermont's Greens prefer to use the byline of the VPP instead). The target here is to reflect as closely as possible the composition of Newfoundland's 45th General Assembly. The benchmark is as follows:

PC: 34; LIB: 12; NDP: 2; out of 48 seats, 39 are needed for a majority

With that in mind, focusing only on the state legislatures:
Maine: LIB: 76; PC: 73; NDP: 1; GRN: 1 (total: 151)
New Hampshire: PC: 249; LIB: 151 (total: 400)
Vermont: LIB: 83; PC: 60; NDP: 6; IND: 1 (total: 150)

Of these three states, NH is closest to Newfoundland as far as the strength of the PCs are, but Maine is closer to the strength of the NDP. Thus, NH becomes our Newfoundland analogue here (a change from 2000, when it was Maine), and let the others stand as is. 2006, OTOH, will be an interesting set of elections, both provincially and also federally - in that case it would be interesting to see how the 2006 federal elections applies to the US, seeing as IOTL that's when we had the Democratic wave in the US but in Canada (which usually lags at least a decade in trend) this is where you have the Tories form the Government for the first time in the 21st century.
 
Now up till now in this series, Canada and the US have been having elections roughly at the same time, but Canada had an extra election in 2006 when its government fell early. Rather than just reuse the same US data, I decided to use House of Representatives midterm data from 2006, which was slightly challenging, but see below for US 2006 mapped on Canada. I also included an original US map, as one doesn't often see House popular vote mapped. It looks rather different from what we might expect to see today. (NB New York is darker blue than one might expect due to how the source I used treats electoral fusion).

1528711173845.png
 
Now to do it the other way around for 2006. Same caveats as before about summing to slightly more than 100% apply.

Alberta

Kansas
Con 68.4%
NDP 12.3%
Lib 11.2%
Grn 10.0%
Oth 1.4%

New Mexico
Con 56.7%
Lib 26.5%
NDP 8.9%
Grn 6.6%
Oth 1.4%

Oklahoma
Con 69.7%
Lib 11.9%
NDP 10.4%
Grn 8.1%
Oth 1.4%

Texas
Con 64.7%
Lib 15.0%
NDP 12.3%
Grn 10.0%
Oth 1.4%

Interesting that the NDP overtakes the Liberals in Kansas.

British Columbia

California
Con 37.3%
NDP 28.9%
Lib 25.4%
Grn 2.7%
Oth 3.1%

Oregon
Con 41.0%
Lib 28.8%
NDP 28.7%
Grn 2.5%
Oth 0% (actually negative due to methodology)

Washington
Lib 36.6%
Con 35.0%
NDP 27.0%
Grn 0.8%
Oth 0% (actually negative due to methodology)

Despite the unfortunate negative results due to the variance in third party presence in US House midterms, this result is rather interesting, showing a variation in who wins which states in "BC" for the first time.

Manitoba

Arizona
Con 46.0%
NDP 27.3%
Lib 21.7%
Grn 9.4%
Oth 1.2%

Colorado
Con 34.9%
Lib 33.8%
NDP 24.5%
Grn 6.7%
Oth 3.0%

Idaho
Con 50.1%
NDP 25.4%
Lib 19.5%
Grn 7.5%
Oth 1.2%

Montana
Con 53.2%
NDP 22.9%
Lib 18.8%
Grn 5.1%
Oth 1.2%

Nevada
Con 39.6%
Lib 29.7%
NDP 23.3%
Grn 5.4%
Oth 3.5%

Utah
Con 45.6%
NDP 26.7%
Lib 22.6%
Grn 8.9%
Oth 1.2%

Wyoming
Con 42.6%
Lib 27.5%
NDP 24.8%
Grn 7.0%
Oth 1.2%

The Tories sweep all the "Manitoba" states this time, although Colorado is very close.
 
Newfoundland & Labrador

Maine
Lib 50.0%
Con 34.0%
NDP 15.2%
Grn 4.9%
Oth 0% (actually negative)

New Hampshire
Con 50.7%
Lib 36.6%
NDP 11.9%
Grn 1.6%
Oth 0.0%

Vermont
Con 48.1%
Lib 37.8%
NDP 12.9%
Grn 2.7%
Oth 0.3%

Quite different results within these states this time, driven by the fact that their House vote in 2006 was quite different from their usual presidential vote.

The one-state provinces:

New Brunswick
Connecticut
Lib 39.2%
Con 35.8%
NDP 21.9%
Grn 2.4%
Oth 0.7%

Northwest Territories/Nunavut
Hawaii
Lib 36.8%
NDP 33.1%
Con 23.2%
Grn 3.5%
Oth 3.4%

Nova Scotia
Massachusetts
Lib 37.2%
NDP 29.9%
Con 29.7%
Grn 2.6%
Oth 0.7%

Prince Edward Island
Rhode Island
Lib 52.6%
Con 33.4%
NDP 9.6%
Grn 3.9%
Oth 0.6%

Yukon
Alaska
Lib 48.5%
NDP 23.9%
Con 23.7%
Grn 4.0%
Oth 0.0%

And Saskatchewan:

Iowa
Con 54.7%
NDP 23.1%
Lib 17.8%
Grn 4.7%
Oth 1.2%

Minnesota
Con 46.6%
NDP 25.7%
Lib 22.9%
Grn 7.3%
Oth 1.6%

Nebraska
Con 60.2%
NDP 21.4%
Lib 14.0%
Grn 3.0%
Oth 1.2%

North Dakota
Con 38.5%
Lib 35.7%
NDP 21.4%
Grn 3.0%
Oth 1.2%

South Dakota
Lib 39.1%
Con 33.5%
NDP 22.9%
Grn 4.6%
Oth 1.2%

Not the pattern one might naively expect, but driven by the fact that the Dakotas had popular Democratic incumbent Representatives in 2006.
 
Ontario

Delaware
Con 50.8%
Lib 23.4%
NDP 18.1%
Grn 6.4%
Oth 3.1%

DC
Breaks maths as usual - just call it a 50%+ Lib majority

Illinois
Lib 42.2%
Con 35.4%
NDP 17.0%
Grn 5.3%
Oth 0.8%

Indiana
Con 43.5%
Lib 33.4%
NDP 17.6%
Grn 6.0%
Oth 0.8%

Maryland
Lib 49.3%
Con 25.8%
NDP 19.1%
Grn 7.5%
Oth 1.2%

Michigan
Con 38.2%
Lib 37.4%
NDP 19.0%
Grn 7.3%
Oth 0.8%

New Jersey
Lib 41.2%
Con 35.9%
NDP 17.5%
Grn 5.8%
Oth 0.8%

New York
Lib 43.8%
NDP 30.0%
Con 20.7%
Grn 4.7%
Oth 0.8%

Ohio
Con 40.8%
Lib 37.2%
NDP 16.5%
Grn 4.8%
Oth 0.8%

Pennsylvania
Lib 40.2%
Con 36.8%
NDP 17.6%
Grn 5.9%
Oth 0.8%

West Virginia
Lib 42.6%
Con 35.6%
NDP 16.3%
Grn 4.6%
Oth 0.8%

Wisconsin
Con 44.0%
Lib 33.2%
NDP 17.3%
Grn 5.6%
Oth 0.8%

An interestingly varied collection of results in "Ontario", quite different to what we've seen before. The weird result in NY is because of the aforementioned electoral fusion--I had to tone down the Green vote to something less maths-breaking as well.
 
I've had to use different methodology for Quebec due to the fact that the Tories and Grits were almost tied there in 2006 and both together roughly equalled the Bloc popular vote.

Quebec

Alabama
BQ 42.7%
Con 25.9%
Lib 20.1%
NDP 6.3%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Arkansas
BQ 43.2%
Lib 28.0%
Con 18.5%
NDP 5.3%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Florida
Bloc 42.3%
Con 26.7%
Lib 18.8%
NDP 7.1%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Georgia
BQ 43.2%
Con 25.9%
Lib 20.9%
NDP 7.1%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Kentucky
BQ 41.6%
Con 22.8%
Lib 22.1%
NDP 8.5%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Louisiana
BQ 41.7%
Con 30.0%
Lib 14.9%
NDP 8.3%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Mississippi
BQ 40.2%
Con 23.7%
Lib 19.7%
NDP 11.3%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Missouri
BQ 41.9%
Con 23.4%
Lib 21.7%
NDP 7.6%
Grn/Oth 5.4%

North Carolina
BQ 43.2%
Lib 24.5%
Con 21.9%
NDP 5.3%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

South Carolina
BQ 42.6%
Con 26.0%
Lib 19.8%
NDP 6.6%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Tennessee
BQ 41.6%
Lib 23.2%
Con 21.7%
NDP 8.5%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Virginia
BQ 40.4%
Con 25.0%
Lib 18.7%
NDP 10.9%
Grn/Oth 5.0%

Not really happy with this methodology as it makes the BQ's dominance more universal than it was in reality (where the Tories and Liberals still won plenty of seats in Quebec) but I can't think of anything better.

Now to map it...
 
Yeah, this homogenous Bloc looks a bit silly, but you get the idea.

1528716317644.png

Now OTL Canada's 2006 election resulted in the smallest minority government ever (formed by Stephen Harper's Tories) but that's not entirely obvious from the US map, whose less granular results (compared to Canadian ridings) mean the NDP don't win anything, for instance.
 
Last edited:
And here's popular vote just for the three main parties, as the methodology gets too dodgy to do the others for this one. Note how Arkansas still stands out as a more Liberal / less Conservative (because more Democratic / less Republican in the original) area, which would change drastically four years later.

1528732838500.png
 
And here's popular vote just for the three main parties, as the methodology gets too dodgy to do the others for this one. Note how Arkansas still stands out as a more Liberal / less Conservative (because more Democratic / less Republican in the original) area, which would change drastically four years later.

View attachment 2262

I see that the legacy of Bill Clinton has ensured that Arkansas is not fertile territory for conservatism.
 
I see that the legacy of Bill Clinton has ensured that Arkansas is not fertile territory for conservatism.
A reminder that it took 4 years and 2 elections (from 2008 to 2012) for Arkansas to go from "mostly Democrats opposed only by Greens" to "mostly Republicans opposed only by Libertartians".
 
Here's the US 2008 election mapped on to Canada. Striking how similar it is to 2006, which was based on the House elections of that year. I've thought before on looking at said elections that they seem to strongly foreshadow how Obama did in 2008, and it becomes difficult to judge how much of his victory was specific to him and much Generic Democrat would have got.

1529061706986.png
 
Because there was no really good third party vote to use in 2008 in the US to work out the NDP, I'm going to try scaling rather than additive again, but add a step to normalise to 100%. I'm concerned this may not allow enough Lib vs NDP variation, but we'll see what happens.

Alberta

Kansas
Con 58.9%
Grn 16.1%
NDP 10.8%
Lib 9.7%
Oth 4.4%

New Mexico
Con 51.0%
NDP 17.4%
Lib 15.6%
Grn 12.6%
Oth 3.5%

Oklahoma
Con 80.1%
NDP 10.5%
Lib 9.4%
(Grn & Oth 0%)

Texas
Con 64.5%
NDP 12.7%
Lib 11.4%
Grn 9.0%
Oth 2.5%

Obviously this was an even stronger Conservative victory than usual. I'm a bit concerned that the Liberals being relatively strong in NM (which feels intuitive) didn't come out so well here, but that's partly just how it turned out in Canada OTL. Green and Other are zero in Oklahoma because they are calculated based on the US other parties and none were allowed on OK's ballot in 2008.


British Columbia

California
Con 43.8%
NDP 26.6%
Lib 19.8%
Grn 9.1%
Oth 0.8%

Oregon
Con 46.1%
NDP 23.8%
Lib 17.7%
Grn 11.4%
Oth 0.9%

Washington
Con 46.8%
NDP 24.5%
Lib 18.2%
Grn 9.8%
Oth 0.8%

This doesn't really feel intuitively right, but is partly because OR and WA had very similar results in the 2008 US election.

Manitoba

Arizona
Con 51.4%
NDP 23.7%
Lib 18.7%
Grn 5.3%
Oth 0.9%

Colorado
Con 43.2%
NDP 28.4%
Lib 22.4%
Grn 5.1%
Oth 0.9%

Idaho
Con 57.0%
NDP 18.3%
Lib 14.5%
Grn 8.8%
Oth 1.5%

Montana
Con 45.5%
NDP 23.7%
Lib 18.8%
Grn 10.2%
Oth 1.8%

Nevada
Con 40.6%
NDP 28.7%
Lib 22.7%
Grn 6.8%
Oth 1.2%

Utah
Con 56.6%
NDP 17.0%
Lib 13.5%
Grn 10.9%
Oth 1.9%

Wyoming
Con 60.6%
NDP 16.7%
Lib 13.2%
Grn 8.2%
Oth 1.4%

It occurs to me that the NDP/Lib balance could be made more realistically nuanced if one applied Democratic primary data from 2008 and 2016, but that would be a much bigger project.

Newfoundland & Labrador

Maine
Lib 46.7%
NDP 33.4%
Con 16.5%
Grn 1.9%
Oth 1.4%

New Hampshire
Lib 45.7%
NDP 32.7%
Con 19.0%
Grn 1.4%
Oth 1.1%

Vermont
Lib 49.7%
NDP 35.6%
Con 11.4%
Grn 1.9%
Oth 1.4%

Not much nuance but it does pick up Vermont being noticeably more Democratic.

Saskatchewan

Iowa
Con 52.1%
NDP 27.0%
Lib 16.0%
Grn 4.7%
Oth 0.3%

Minnesota
Con 51.1%
NDP 26.8%
Lib 15.9%
Grn 5.9%
Oth 0.3%

Nebraska
Con 63.2%
NDP 19.8%
Lib 11.7%
Grn 5.0%
Oth 0.3%

North Dakota
Con 59.6%
NDP 21.2%
Lib 12.6%
Grn 6.3%
Oth 0.3%

South Dakota
Con 59.9%
NDP 21.5%
Lib 12.7%
Grn 5.6%
Oth 0.3%

More of a natural split between MN/IA and the rest compared to 2006, which got distorted a bit by the House's support patterns being different.
 
Single-state provinces/territories

New Brunswick
Connecticut
Con 39.4%
Lib 32.5%
NDP 21.9%
Grn 6.1%
Oth 0.1%

Northwest Territories/Nunavut
Hawaii
Con 36.6%
NDP 36.3%
Lib 19.4%
Grn 6.5%
Oth 1.2%

Nova Scotia
Massachusetts
Lib 29.8%
NDP 28.9%
Con 26.1%
Grn 8.0%
Oth 7.1%

Prince Edward Island
Rhode Island
Lib 47.7%
Con 36.2%
NDP 9.8%
Grn 4.7%
Oth 1.7%

Yukon
Alaska
Lib 45.8%
Con 32.7%
NDP 8.7%
Grn 12.8%
(Oth 0%)

NDP narrowly miss out on taking "Hawaii". I doubt the real Massachusetts has ever had an election as interesting as the NS three-way split!
 
Ontario

Delaware
Lib 37.4%
Con 36.0%
NDP 19.7%
Grn 6.3%
Oth 0.6%

District of Columbia
Lib 57.2%
NDP 30.1%
Con 6.5%
Grn 5.6%
Oth 0.6%
(doesn't break maths for once, albeit leading to an unrealistically competitive result because of how I've scaled both Libs and NDP by the Democratic vote)

Illinois
Lib 36.9%
Con 35.3%
NDP 19.4%
Grn 7.7%
Ot 0.8%

Indiana
Con 46.8%
Lib 29.7%
NDP 15.6%
Grn 7.2%
Oth 0.7%

Maryland
Lib 36.6%
Con 34.7%
NDP 19.2%
Grn 8.5%
Oth 0.9%

Michigan
Con 38.5%
Lib 33.5%
NDP 17.6%
Grn 9.4%
Oth 0.9%

New Jersey
Con 40.2%
Lib 34.3%
NDP 18.0%
Grn 6.8%
Oth 0.7%

New York
Lib 38.2%
Con 35.2%
NDP 20.1%
Grn 5.9%
Oth 0.6%

Ohio
Con 43.9%
Lib 29.9%
NDP 15.7%
Grn 9.5%
Oth 1.0%

Pennsylvania
Con 42.4%
Lib 32.4%
NDP 17.0%
Grn 7.4%
Oth 0.7%

West Virginia
Con 51.6%
Lib 24.5%
NDP 12.9%
Grn 10.0%
Oth 1.0%

Wisconsin
Con 40.5%
Lib 33.4%
NDP 17.5%
Grn 7.8%
Oth 0.8%

At least we get some nice variation between states here. Look at how the OTL WV swing is reflected!
 
For Quebec I have scaled the Bloc alongside the Tories from the GOP vote, as that seems the least bad option.

Quebec

Alabama
BQ 42.9%
Con 24.7%
Lib 19.2%
NDP 9.8%
Grn 2.8%
Oth 0.6%

Arkansas
BQ 40.3%
Con 23.2%
Lib 18.6%
NDP 9.5%
Grn 6.8%
Oth 1.5%

Florida
BQ 35.8%
Lib 26.4%
Con 20.6%
NDP 13.5%
Grn 3.0%
Oth 0.7%

Georgia
BQ 38.2%
Lib 24.0%
Con 21.9%
NDP 12.2%
Grn 3.0%
Oth 0.7%

Kentucky
BQ 40.5%
Con 23.4%
Lib 20.4%
BQ 10.4%
Grn 4.3%
Oth 1.0%

Louisiana
BQ 41.3%
Con 23.7%
Lib 19.7%
NDP 10.0%
Grn 4.4%
Oth 1.0%

Mississippi
BQ 40.7%
Con 23.4%
Lib 21.8%
NDP 11.1%
Grn 2.5%
Oth 0.6%

Missouri
BQ 36.1%
Lib 25.1%
Con 20.8%
NDP 12.8%
Grn 4.2%
Oth 0.9%

North Carolina
BQ 36.6%
Lib 25.8%
Con 21.1%
NDP 13.1%
Grn 2.8%
Oth 0.6%

South Carolina
BQ 38.9%
Lib 22.7%
Con 22.4%
NDP 11.6%
Grn 3.7%
Oth 0.8%

Tennessee
BQ 40.5%
Con 23.3%
Lib 20.8%
NDP 10.6%
Grn 4.0%
Oth 0.9%

Virginia
BQ 34.6%
Lib 27.5%
Con 19.9%
NDP 14.0%
Grn 3.2%
Oth 0.7%

BQ dominates everywhere, but at least there is some variation in majorities. Now to map it.
 
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