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Canada-United States Election Conversions

Uhura's Mazda

lying on his back, urinating over his own belly
Published by SLP
Location
Tamaki Makaurau
#42
Currently thinking of how one would extend this to Australia:

Alberta=Queensland - lots of natural resources, ruled for generations by a weird right-wing party, but now has a mildly centre-left government, partly because a radical right-wing party has been splitting the votes of the traditional right-wing party.
Prince Edward Island=Tasmania - islands that everyone forgets about, with random Green strength.
British Columbia=Victoria - one big, liveable city surrounded by rural stuff; the Greens are basically in the middle of the two big parties.
Ontario=NSW - the place containing the big city that everyone thinks is the capital but isn't. Also Doug Ford is literally Tony Abbott.
The territories=Northern Territory - obviously.
Manitoba=South Australia - just had a long-term lefty government despite being big and empty, but which has recently been defeated by the right.
Saskatchewan=Western Australia - a history of radical agrarians, and the left being more successful than they have any right to be. Mostly empty.

This leaves Quebec and most of the Maritimes out, though, which is a bit unfortunate - maybe bring NZ in, seeing as Nova Scotia is literally Southland.

Anyway: back to your regularly scheduled programming...
 

Mumby

'I love the pun he will go far'
Published by SLP
#43
Currently thinking of how one would extend this to Australia:

Alberta=Queensland - lots of natural resources, ruled for generations by a weird right-wing party, but now has a mildly centre-left government, partly because a radical right-wing party has been splitting the votes of the traditional right-wing party.
Prince Edward Island=Tasmania - islands that everyone forgets about, with random Green strength.
British Columbia=Victoria - one big, liveable city surrounded by rural stuff; the Greens are basically in the middle of the two big parties.
Ontario=NSW - the place containing the big city that everyone thinks is the capital but isn't. Also Doug Ford is literally Tony Abbott.
The territories=Northern Territory - obviously.
Manitoba=South Australia - just had a long-term lefty government despite being big and empty, but which has recently been defeated by the right.
Saskatchewan=Western Australia - a history of radical agrarians, and the left being more successful than they have any right to be. Mostly empty.

This leaves Quebec and most of the Maritimes out, though, which is a bit unfortunate - maybe bring NZ in, seeing as Nova Scotia is literally Southland.

Anyway: back to your regularly scheduled programming...
If you're going to bring in NZ, why not make PNG Quebec?
 

Uhura's Mazda

lying on his back, urinating over his own belly
Published by SLP
Location
Tamaki Makaurau
#44
If you're going to bring in NZ, why not make PNG Quebec?
It works in that it speaks a different language, but there aren't really any political similarities - I did a PM List the other day comparing Mario Dumont and Winston Peters, so I guess the North Island would be my pick for a Quebec. After all, we do speak a different language to Strayan.
 

Mumby

'I love the pun he will go far'
Published by SLP
#45
It works in that it speaks a different language, but there aren't really any political similarities - I did a PM List the other day comparing Mario Dumont and Winston Peters, so I guess the North Island would be my pick for a Quebec. After all, we do speak a different language to Strayan.
PNG would make a good Nunavut actually, to compare to NT's Yukon/Northwest.
 

Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#48
Right, let's do 2000 Canada in 2000 USA. I've (more logically) split the GOP to be PC+Alliance, and Nader is the NDP.

Alberta

Kansas
Alliance 58.5%
Liberal 19.6%
PC 13.4%
NDP 6.7%
Other 1.9%

New Mexico
Alliance 50.2%
Liberal 30.3%
PC 11.4%
NDP 6.9%
Other 1.2%

Oklahoma
Alliance 60.3%
Liberal 20.8%
PC 13.8%
NDP 3.3%
Other 1.8%

Texas
Alliance 59.5%
Liberal 20.3%
PC 13.6%
NDP 5.5%
Other 1.1%

Similar sort of trend as seen before, with New Mexico as the Liberals' best state.

British Columbia

California
Alliance 48.%
Liberal 28.9%
NDP 11.2%
PC 7.2%
Other 4.3%

Oregon
Alliance 52.8%
Liberal 22.4%
NDP 12.4%
PC 7.8%
Other 4.7%

Washington
Alliance 51.1%
Liberal 25.6%
NDP 11.5%
PC 7.5%
Other 4.4%

Still very different to the corresponding US states. Note Oregon is the Alliance's best state just as it was unusually good for Bush in 2000.

Manitoba

Arizona
Liberal 38.4%
Alliance 27.4%
NDP 19.9%
PC 13.0%
Other 1.3%

Colorado
Liberal 36.2%
Alliance 27.2%
NDP 22.1%
PC 13.0%
Other 1.5%

Idaho
Alliance 38.4%
Liberal 21.4%
NPD 19.3%
PC 18.2%
Other 2.6%

Montana
Alliance 32.4%
Liberal 27.1%
NDP 22.8%
PC 15.4%
Other 2.1%

Nevada
Liberal 39.7%
Alliance 26.4%
NDP 19.4%
PC 12.6%
Other 1.9%

Utah
Alliance 38.2%
NDP 21.5%
Liberal 20.1%
PC 18.1%
Other 2.1%

Wyoming
Alliance 38.8%
Liberal 21.5%
NDP 19.0%
PC 18.4%
Other 2.3%

A much more interesting division of "Manitoba" here, with Nevada, Arizona and Colorado remaining loyal to the Liberals, while there's a big shift to the Alliance elsewhere. Again, you can create imaginary patterns here like suggesting that the Liberals do well out of the Hispanic vote.
 
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Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#49
Newfoundland & Labrador

Maine
Liberal 45.5%
PC 33.7%
NDP 13.5%
Alliance 3.8%
Other 3.6%

New Hampshire
Liberal 43.2%
PC 37.4%
NDP 11.7%
Alliance 4.2%
Other 3.6%

Vermont
Liberal 47.0%
PC 30.7%
NDP 14.7%
Alliance 3.4%
Other 4.1%

Similar across the board, with the PCs closest in NH.

All the one-state provinces:

New Brunswick
Connecticut
Liberal 41.7%
PC 30.5%
Alliance 15.7%
NDP 11.7%
Other 0.3%

Northwest Territories & Nunavut
Hawaii
Liberal 54.4%
NDP 23.5%
Alliance 11.1%
PC 9.3%
Other 1.7%

Nova Scotia
Massachusetts
Liberal 36.5%
PC 29.1%
NDP 23.5%
Alliance 9.6%
Other 0.9%

Prince Edward Island
Rhode Island
Liberal 47.0%
PC 38.4%
NDP 9.0%
Alliance 5.0%
Other 0.5%

Yukon
Alaska
Liberal 32.5%
NDP 31.9%
Alliance 27.7%
PC 7.5%
Other 0.4%
 

Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#50
Ontario

Delaware
Liberal 53.8%
Alliance 22.4%
PC 13.7%
NDP 8.2%
Other 1.9%

District of Columbia
Liberal 84.0%
NDP 10.9%
Alliance 1.9%
PC 1.1%
Other 2.0%

Illinois
Liberal 53.4%
Alliance 22.8%
PC 13.9%
NDP 7.9%
Other 2.0%

Indiana
Liberal 39.9%
Alliance 31.5%
PC 19.3%
NDP 6.5%
Other 2.8%

Maryland
Liberal 55.4%
Alliance 21.3%
PC 19.3%
NDP 6.5%
Other 2.8%

Michigan
Liberal 50.1%
Alliance 25.0%
PC 15.3%
NDP 7.7%
Other 1.9%

New Jersey
Liberal 55.0%
Alliance 21.4%
PC 13.0%
NDP 8.7%
Other 2.0%

New York
Liberal 59.1%
Alliance 18.2%
PC 11.1%
NDP 9.3%
Other 2.3%

Ohio
Liberal 45.3%
Alliance 27.4%
PC 16.7%
NDP 8.2%
Other 2.4%

Pennsylvania
Liberal 49.4%
Alliance 25.2%
PC 15.4%
NDP 7.8%
Other 2.2%

West Virginia
Liberal 44.4%
Alliance 28.6%
PC 17.5%
NDP 7.4%
Other 2.2%

Wisconsin
Liberal 46.7%
Alliance 25.9%
PC 15.8%
NDP 9.3%
Other 2.3%


The Liberals continue to dominate "Ontario", with only Indiana being close. The pattern is less homogenous than before, though, with OH, PA, WIand WV being closer than NY, NJ or MD.
 

Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#51
I will do Quebec last as it's more complicated.

Saskatchewan

Iowa
Alliance 46.4%
NDP 24.7%
Liberal 24.7%
PC 4.1%
Other 0.2%

Minnesota
Alliance 44.6%
NDP 27.6%
Liberal 24.0%
PC 3.1%
Other 0.6%

Nebraska
Alliance 55.5%
NDP 26.0%
Liberal 9.4%
PC 9.0%
Other 0.2%

North Dakota
Alliance 55.5%
NDP 26.0%
Liberal 9.2%
PC 8.4%
Other 2.2%

South Dakota
Alliance 54.2%
NDP 22.4%
Liberal 13.7%
PC 8.3%
Other 1.3%

The Alliance dominates here, but it's interesting how the Liberals are much stronger--though always behind the NDP--in Iowa and Minnesota than elsewhere. (Of course, this stems from the real life Bush/Gore separation). Nader's relative strength in Minnesota also delivers a good result for the NDP there.
 

Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#52
For Quebec I've counted the Bloc, Alliance and PCs together; this does add up surprisingly close to Bush's voteshare in the corresponding US states, but it does mean there's less variation between them in a state (i.e. PC can't come above Alliance anywhere). PC and Alliance were both only around 5-6% in Quebec this election anyway, but PC did win one seat whereas Alliance didn't win any OTL.

Alabama
BQ 42.7%
Liberal 40.8%
Alliance 6.6%
PC 6.0%
NDP 1.7%
Other 2.3%

Arkansas
Liberal 45.1%
BQ 39.5%
Alliance 6.0%
PC 5.4%
NDP 2.1%
Other 2.8%

Florida
Liberal 48.1%
BQ 37.6%
Alliance 5.7%
PC 5.1%
NDP 2.2%
Other 2.1%

Georgia
Liberal 42.2%
BQ 42.1%
Alliance 6.4%
PC 5.8%
NDP 1.1%
Other 3.2%

Kentucky
BQ 43.5%
Liberal 40.6%
Alliance 6.6%
PC 6.0%
NDP 2.1%
Other 2.0%

Louisiana
Liberal 44.1%
BQ 40.5%
Alliance 6.2%
PC 5.5%
NDP 1.8%
Other 2.8%

Mississippi
BQ 44.4%
Liberal 40.0%
Alliance 6.8%
PC 6.1%
NDP 1.4%
Other 2.3%

Missouri
Liberal 46.3%
BQ 38.8%
Alliance 5.9%
PC 5.3%
NDP 2.2%
Other 2.3%

North Carolina
BQ 43.1%
Liberal 42.5%
Alliance 6.6%
PC 5.9%
NDP 0.6%
Other 2.2%

South Carolina
BQ 43.8%
Liberal 40.2%
Alliance 6.7%
PC 6.0%
NDP 2.1%
Other 2.2%

Tennessee
Liberal 46.5%
BQ 39.4%
Alliance 6.0%
PC 5.4%
NDP 1.6%
Other 2.0%

Virginia
Liberal 43.7%
BQ 40.4%
Alliance 6.2%
PC 5.5%
NDP 2.8%
Other 2.3%

Actually quite a nicely detailed depiction of the Southern Bloc slowly losing control as the Liberals continue to make gains.
 
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Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#53
Here's the map. Only three colours this time--the NDP and PCs don't win anywhere--and I suspect the larger areas of the US states (as opposed to the individual FPTP seats in Canada) mean that the electoral vote in this case would be rather larger for the Alliance than their 25% or so of the popular vote would suggest.

1527887490465.png
 
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Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#54
And here are the popular vote maps for 2000. Note the Liberals remaining in power through dominating "Ontario" and pushing into "Quebec" even while losing ground farther west; the lack of any party other than the Liberals or the Bloc being significant in "Quebec"; the central tower of Alliance states; the PCs being uncompetitive outside New England/the Maritimes; and the NDP's strength in the western Midwest and Plains but not translating to topping the polls in any state.

1527860566490.png
 

Dan1988

That which doesn't kill us makes us stronger
#55
You know, that the PCs in this scenario pulled a Federalist Party in this scenario made me have a quick look at the provincial governments in Atlantic Canada during this period, and there was:

*Newfoundland: Liberal Government (1999-2003)
*New Brunswick: PC Government (1999-2003)
*Nova Scotia: PC Government (1999-2003) (noticing a trend here?)
*PEI: woops, they had a general election this year, and an important one because this was the second general election that abolished a quasi-unicameral structure akin to Norway's at this time and went for a more "conventional" setup, leading from a PC Government (1997-2000) to - wait for it! - a PC Government (2000-2003)

Now, for NB = CT, NS = MA, and PEI = RI, I could actually see that actually happening and thus could let that carry over here. It's the Newfoundland analogue here that is a challenge, and requires me looking at the state governments of those three at that time:
*Maine: Independent Governor (Angus King), plus Democratic-majority State Legislature - OK, so a Newfoundland analogue could work here. Wait a minute - Maine had a "hung" Senate and it only worked due to a power-sharing agreement between the two major parties? Screw plausibility - I like it!
*New Hampshire: Democratic Governor, GOP-majority House, but again a hung Senate. Here I'm thinking a Newfoundland analogue in provincial government doesn't work and instead NH follows the same footsteps of the other three New England states instead, due to how the Westminster System as applied to Canada works.
*Vermont: Democratic Governor, Democratic-majority Senate, GOP-majority House - I'll take the legislative composition as canon and thus have Vermont also have a PC Government, like most of the other New England states.

So, at a provincial/state level, the only area where a Newfoundland analogue would apply would be Maine, thus probably validating the PC Party's strength in New England, with Maine as the exception that proves the rule.
 

Alex Richards

Tends to eat truffles once found
Patreon supporter
Published by SLP
Location
Derbyshire
#56
You've miscoloured Louisiana in the map.

The fascinating thing really is how with California and Texas as well as most of the West you'd think Reform would be close to winning in these, but it's easy to forget how high a position securely winning New England, the Midwest and the Midatlantic States gets you.
 

Makemakean

Rootless Rōnin
#57
You've miscoloured Louisiana in the map.

The fascinating thing really is how with California and Texas as well as most of the West you'd think Reform would be close to winning in these, but it's easy to forget how high a position securely winning New England, the Midwest and the Midatlantic States gets you.
Liberal - 322
Canadian Alliance - 169
Bloc Québécois - 46

That's a pretty respectable victory for the Liberals...
 

Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#59
You've miscoloured Louisiana in the map.

The fascinating thing really is how with California and Texas as well as most of the West you'd think Reform would be close to winning in these, but it's easy to forget how high a position securely winning New England, the Midwest and the Midatlantic States gets you.
Well spotted, fixed.

The point you and Makemakean point out shows, I think, that this is a good analogy - as I understand it, the right in Canada got increasingly frustrated in this period that they couldn't get within reach of the Liberals despite the latter losing ground outside of eastern Canada. Obviously it's not quite the same as transposing to 50 states (which favours the top party by winner-take-all, rather than splitting between multiple FPTP seats) but it seems to have preserved the overall 'feel' of the election.
 

Thande

I could not fail to disagree with you less
Published by SLP
#60
Going back to this project, here's the US 2004 presidential election mapped onto Canada:

1528282663421.png

You can see the closeness of it, as well as the fact that Kerry's wins weren't very convincing for the most part (Nova Scotia, of course, is Massachusetts, so home state advantage). People tend to forget that even Hawaii and California were surprisingly close in 2004 given how the election was presented as The Liberal Coastlines vs The Whitebread Interior. The Quebecois South analogue isn't that dark red yet either.