Thanks. Very well-written scenario. Pierre Trudeau is probably one of the best-known Canadian politicians in America (at least among my parent's generation) so it's interesting to see a world where he never enters politics and the numerous butterflies this causes vis a vis Quebec separatism and devolution.
CBC News, 20th October 2020 Liberals sweep back into power with clear majority
Naheed Nenshi makes history as the first Muslim-Canadian PM
For the Liberals, it was a night of unexpected triumph and jubilation. For the New Democrats and the National Alliance, it was a night of deflated and dashed hopes. Polling and most pundits had been predicting the closest and most three-cornered election since 1980, with last-minute polling suggesting a late swing to the Liberal Party being written off a fluke.
The prospect of a majority government came as a surprise even to many Liberals, who started the campaign in third place and whose leaders' seat appeared to be under threat at the beginning of the campaign. But Nenshi is used to defying expectations, having beaten more established Liberals to the leadership and denying the NDP a second majority in 2017, both in polling upsets. The Liberal campaign was notable for its use of viral social media techniques and the large degree of autonomy afforded to volunteers and campaigners, utilising guerrilla marketing tactics and spontaneous rallies, as well as Nenshi's promises of transparency over donors, an important step for a party long-dogged by donation scandals. At a victory rally in downtown Calgary, Nenshi delivered an impassioned and triumphant victory speech, decrying the failures of the incumbent NDP and promising two-way dialogue with voters as "politics in full sentences".
The night was a disappointment for the Canadian Alliance and Option nationale, who hoped to form the first conservative national government since John Diefenbaker. The announcement of a "National Alliance", an electoral pact between the two parties, regularly tied for first place with the NDP for much of 2019 and early 2020. Even after the writs were dropped, polling suggested that under the vigorous leadership of former Trois-Riveres Mayor Yves Lévesque, the party would sweep Quebec, while the young Michelle Rempel was seen as an "acceptable face" for the Alliance voters among voters outside the Prairies, unencumbered by the party's socially conservative baggage. But the party suffered from message discipline and a poorly-received manifesto, dogged by questions about the workability of a national referendum on pipelines and the Alliance's broader climate change policy.
The incumbent New Democrats were seen to have similarly suffered through much of the campaign. The NDP campaign was thrown off-course early on by the unexpectedly poor growth figures announced early in the campaign, as well as by comments made by candidates campaigning for the leadership of the Quebec branch of the party. Boulerice was forced to suspend several NDP officials in New Brunswick over comments suggesting that Nenshi's race and faith made the Liberals "unelectable" in Quebec and Atlantic Canada, as well as dismissing Regional Development Minister Peter Stoffer over allegations of sexual harassment. The New Democratic campaign underestimated and largely ignored the Liberal Party, focusing their attacks on the National Alliance, who threatened the NDP in their Quebec strongholds. In the end the Liberals proved to be just as much of a threat even in those areas, picking up 20 seats in Quebec. As well as losing 87 seats, the NDP saw several high-profile MPs and ministers defeated, such as Health Minister Guy Caron, Public Safety Minister Robert Chisholm and Canadian Heritage Minister Wab Kinew all losing their seats.
Many pundits are now suggesting that the pivotal moments that undid the polling deadlock in the Liberals' favour took place in the televised debates. The two debates, one English-language and one French-language, were controversial and subject to much negotiation; the NDP refused to participate in a debate that included both the Canadian Alliance and Option nationale's leaders, which would allow the conservative electoral pact to effectively "double up". In the end, Rempel represented the National Alliance in the English debate and Lévesque in the French one. Nenshi was well-received in both debates as appearing statesmanlike and persuasive; many French-language outlets expressed pleasant surprise at Nenshi's fluent performance in the French debates, especially after the Westerner's subdued performance in the debates three years earlier. Boulerice was seen to have been done damage by Alex Tyrell's constant attacks on NDP's record on child poverty and pursuing free trade agreements, while Rempel faced much grilling over anti-immigration and social conservative figures in her party, and the Alliance's position on the environment. All three major party leaders struggled to explain their positions on government formation in the event of another hung parliament- positions that in the end proved to be irrelevant.
Nenshi and his new Liberal cabinet are expected to be sworn in by Governor-General Bob Rae in approximately four weeks time.
Alexandre Boulerice has announced that he will be resigning as NDP leader effective immediately; Deputy Prime Minister Adrian Dix is expected to take charge as interim NDP leader and Leader of the Opposition pending a leadership contest. An NDP spokeswoman confirmed that the timing and rules of the contest would be agreed to before the end of the year.
Alliance Leader Michelle Rempel hailed success of the National Alliance at an election night rally in Calgary, and indicated that she would be staying on as Alliance leader. She promised that she would meet with Lévesque as soon as the new Parliament was sworn in to form a joint shadow cabinet with Option nationale.
Several Option nationale election night events were disrupted by bomb scares caused by threats delivered to several news outlets by the Front Liberation du Quebec. No incendiary devices were recovered from any threatened venues.
Quebec Premier Maxime Bernier congratulated Nenshi for his victory, while warning the incoming Liberals against interfering with Quebec's special reserved powers "for the sake of virtue signalling". Premier Aheer of Alberta expressed disappointment at the failure of the National Alliance, warning that "an anti-growth agenda remains in power in Ottawa", while Ontario's Bonnie Crombie also sent congratulations to Mr. Nenshi, calling for the Liberals to continue Boulerice's committment to billion-dollar infrastructure projects already under construction such as the Toronto-Montreal ViaFast high speed rail project.
Speaker of the House of Commons Glen Murray has confirmed that he will seek a re-election to the speakership.
The Cabinet, as composed under the 29th Canadian Ministry of The Rt. Hon. Alexandre Boulerice, February 2020:
Prime Minister and Minister for Provincial-Federal Relations: The Rt. Hon. Alexandre Boulerice, MP Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Internal Affairs: The Hon. Adrian Dix, MP Leader of the Government in the House of Commons: The Hon. Peter Julian MP Leader of the Government in the Senate: The Hon. Senator Lorne Nystrom Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries: The Hon. Joe Byrne, MP Minister of Canadian Heritage: The Hon. Wab Kinew, MP Minister of Energy and Natural Resources: The Hon. Jennifer Hollett, MP Minister of the Environment: The Hon. Peter Tabuns, MP Minister of External Affairs: The Hon. Craig Scott, MP Minister of Finance: The Hon. Rachel Notley, MP Minister of Health: The Hon. Susan Cadell, MP Minister of Immigration, Citizenship and Refugees: The Hon. Jinny Sims, MP Minister of Industry: The Hon. Alex Munter, MP Minister of Indigenous Affairs and Northern Development: The Hon. Georgina Jolibois, MP Minister of International Co-operation and la Francophonie: The Hon. Sadia Groguhé, MP Minister of International Trade: The Hon. Hélène Laverdière, MP Minister of Labour: The Hon. Mike Layton, MP Minister of Justice and Attorney General: The Hon. Melissa Atkinson, MP Minister of National Defence and Minister for Veteran's Affairs: The Hon. Robert Chisholm, MP Minister of National Revenue: The Hon. Lori Sigurdson, MP Minister of Public Works and Regional Development: The Hon. Peter Stoffer, MP Minister of Social Services: The Hon. Anne Lagacé Dowson, MP Minister for the Status of Women and Equities: The Hon. Catherine McKenney, MP Minister of Transport: The Hon. Fin Donnelly, MP President of the Treasury Board: The Hon. Anne Minh-Thu Quach, MP
The Cabinet, as composed under the 30th Canadian Ministry of The Rt. Hon. Naheed Nenshi, November 2020:
Prime Minister: The Rt. Hon. Naheed Nenshi, MP Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Federal-Provincial Relations: The Hon. Marie-Claude Bibeau, MP Leader of the Government in the House of Commons: The Hon. Sébastien Proulx, MP Leader of the Government in the Senate: The Hon. Senator Mike Crawley Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries: The Hon. Yvonne Jones, MP Minister of Canadian Heritage: The Hon. Frantz Benjamin, MP Minister of Energy and Natural Resources: The Hon. Linda Jeffrey, MP Minister of the Environment: The Hon. Judy Klassen, MP Minister of External Affairs: The Hon. Chrystia Freeland, MP Minister of Finance: The Hon. Mike de Jong, MP Minister of Health: The Hon. Lawrence MacAulay, MP Minister of Immigration, Citizenship and Refugees: The Hon. David McGuinty, MP Minister of Industry: The Hon. Scott Brison, MP Minister of Indigenous Affairs and Northern Development: The Hon. George Smitherman, MP Minister of Internal Affairs: The Hon. Patricia Yendrys, MP Minister of International Co-operation and la Francophonie: The Hon. Francine Charbonneau, MP Minister of International Trade: The Hon. Greg Fergus, MP Minister of Labour: The Hon. Kirsty Duncan, MP Minister of Justice and Attorney General: The Hon. Andrew Parsons, MP Minister of National Defence: The Hon. Nathalie Rochefort, MP Minister of National Revenue: The Hon. Han Dong, MP Minister of Public Works and Regional Development: The Hon. Robert-Falcon Ouellette, MP Minister for the Status of Women and Equities: The Hon. Bardish Chagger, MP Minister of Social Services: The Hon. Marwah Rizqy, MP Minister of Transport: The Hon. Steven MacKinnon, MP Associate Minister of Defence and Minister of Veteran’s Affairs: The Hon. Sean Fraser, MP President of the Treasury Board: The Hon. Cathy Rogers, MP