An Arabian Revolution in 1979

[Archibald]

Well if the Mullah had not been so enraged and fanatic maybe... but that's just like asking Saddam to embrace Swedish like democracy.
Will happen the day Hell freeze over, as they say.

 

[Archibald]

It's notable that the US has repeatedly failed to notice or do anything about the danger signs that a valued Middle East ally/ 'client' regime was showing serious cracks and heading for disaster. First Carter and co. fail to notice anything going wrong with the Shah's regime in the mid-1970s despite the rising inequalities of wealth, narrow social base of the governing elite, popular hostility of the mass of 'outsiders', and refusal of the govt to alter course even to secure its own stability. The regime is hailed by Carter as a bastion of stability less than two years before it collapses spectacularly. Then in the run-up to the rise of ISIS the Americans fail to nudge, or blackmail, the narrowly-based and sectarian Shi'a party-based 'democratic' post-2003 regime in Baghdad into co-opting more of the Sunni majority in the N and W of the country into the governing coalition and widening access to govt jobs etc. The desertion of many Sunnis and ex-Baathists to the rebels and collapse of the govt's control of W Iraq in 2013-14 takes them totally by surprise and leaves them with an avoidable mess to clear
up, at far greater cost than if they'd insisted on a broader-based regime in Baghdad when they had control over it in 2003 ff.

What if the US leadership had actually listened to State Dept and Intelligence experts on both occasions and been more forcible with their clients when the latter were in need of their help (1960s for the Shah and 2003-8 for the Baghdad govt), by making financial help and US commercial deals contingent on political reform? Or would this entail having a President who actually had some basic knowledge of Middle Eastern affairs or listened to someone who did, rather than being obsessed with (a) saving money in the short term (b) presenting a 'light touch' approach that would not put lives or money at risk and inflame voters or party donors in an election year? What if Carter or an alternative 1976 Democrat election victor had had more foreign policy experience or a locally-experienced Secretary of State who could see what was going wrong in Iran? Even if an Islamic nationalist capture of the post-Revolution coalition was unexpected and at the time the pro-USSR 'Tudeh' party was seen as a greater threat, this could have led to US fears of the fall of the Shah leading to a military/ Communist coup backed up by Moscow and a forceful action to widen the base of the Iranian regime in time, eg in 1977-8. Indeed, as the Shah's health was secretly going downhill by this point it was feasible if this was leaked to Washington for the US to fear what might happen in a forthcoming regency for his under-age son and take measures to avert this - by pressurising the regime to go back to proper multi-party rule as per the 1906 constitution and reach out to the moderate faction of the sidelined ex-Mossadegh govt nationalist politicians? Ibrahim Yazdi and Karim Sanjabi? Or Sharif-Emami at an earlier date than in OTL?
Would the Iraq situation have been better if George W Bush had listened more to Colin Powell and less to his father's old allies (or kept the latter like Rumsfeld out of govt roles connected to military affairs and foreign policy)? Or if Obama had been more on the 'front foot' in Iraq after 2009 and less concerned to close down the US involvement, eg if the US had been able to contain Afghanistan better by a degree of 'devolution' to/ bribery of local Pushtun tribal leaders in the SE after 2002 to keep the Taleban back there by force with only a limited US military presence ?

Well said. We are all responsible from the present shithole that is Middle East.
Because of oil, obviously, but behind that, every major power in the world top five (bar China, maybe, although they are probably working very hard on the matter, presently - oil oil oil oil oil) was an arse at some point.
France in Algeria, Suez, Syria and Lebanon . Great Britain creating the israel - Palestine never ending shitstorm.
The USA... let's see... Mossadegh, the Saudi pigs Whahabbi fanatics, and much more... The Soviet Union invading Afghanistan in '79...
The Middle East story (at large) since, what, the end of the Ottoman empire, in 1918, is a rather unbelievable litany of criminal blunders by the World major powers. It is really the Murphy Law, but voluntary - everything that could be done WRONG, was done WRONG.
With spectacular results: Al-Quaeda, ISIS, 9-11, Atocha, Bataclan, Charlie Hebdo, Bali, London... it is like a freakkin' dystopia.

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

One way pre-Revolution Iran and say, modern Saudi Arabia are different is well, the sheer number of Iranians. So the oil money didn't spread as far from person to person, and that's before taking into account the military build-up. And like I said, because their aren't that many Saudis, the "less prestigious" (which is bullshit but whatever) engineering and maintenance jobs can be done by European and American contractors without too much disruption to the social order. But the Iranian build up was so massive and so quick that you ended up with loads of military jobs being created... of which only a handful went to Iranians. I mean sure the Tomcat pilots were Iranian, but most of the guys whose fixed them weren't. So the military build up was perceived by many Iranians to be using Iran's oil as a job creation program for non-Iranians; this in a country with mass inequality and poverty.

 

[Charles EP M.]

RE: Obama, it probably helps if Iraq is seen as less of a shitshow

That does seem the most important part of having a POD involving Obama and the Middle East, American voters not going "HELL WITH THIS".

 

[LordInsane]

Or if the war had broke out in 1975. It was Algeria diplomacy that avoided it. They tried again in 1982 but Saddam had their diplomats aircraft shot down by a MiG-25. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Seddik_Benyahia

A war between Ba'athist Iraq and Pahlavi Iran (starting) in 1975 seems like it could be an interesting story in its own right (could it give the Shahdom a lease on life? Could it derail Saddam's rise to power?), although not one where Saudi Arabia getting toppled by a reactionary anti-monarchist group could be the main focus.

 

[Venocara]

One way pre-Revolution Iran and say, modern Saudi Arabia are different is well, the sheer number of Iranians. So the oil money didn't spread as far from person to person, and that's before taking into account the military build-up. And like I said, because their aren't that many Saudis, the "less prestigious" (which is bullshit but whatever) engineering and maintenance jobs can be done by European and American contractors without too much disruption to the social order. But the Iranian build up was so massive and so quick that you ended up with loads of military jobs being created... of which only a handful went to Iranians. I mean sure the Tomcat pilots were Iranian, but most of the guys whose fixed them weren't. So the military build up was perceived by many Iranians to be using Iran's oil as a job creation program for non-Iranians; this in a country with mass inequality and poverty.

Do you know about the state of the Iranian, Iraqi and Saudi Arabian militaries in the run-up to the Revolutions? And what could have happened in a war against Israel over the Lebanon involving these four countries?

P.S. And does anyone know how you get from the Grand Mosque Seizure to an overthrow of the House of Saud?

 

[Doctor Sulemain]

Do you know about the state of the Iranian, Iraqi and Saudi Arabian militaries in the run-up to the Revolutions? And what could have happened in a war against Israel over the Lebanon involving these four countries?

P.S. And does anyone know how you get from the Grand Mosque Seizure to an overthrow of the House of Saud?

Before 1979 Imperial Iran and Israel were allies, or at the very least on friendly terms with each other.

 

[Venocara]

Before 1979 Imperial Iran and Israel were allies, or at the very least on friendly terms with each other.

Ok, I'll be more coherent: in an early 1980s war between a post-House of Saud Arabia, an IR Iran, and Saddam's Iraq against Israel, what would have happened? And how can the Grand Mosque Seizure be transformed into an overthrow of the House of Saud?

 

[Archibald]

Instead of attacking the mosquee they attack.the palace and slain the Royals ?

 

[Venocara]

Instead of attacking the mosquee they attack.the palace and slain the Royals ?

But they attacked the Mosque for a reason, and the real power behind the throne was away (but unpopular). So, what if the king happened to die at the same time as the Mosque was seized? After all, he was an old man..