Alternate Cold War Sets ups and Scenarios

[Mazarin]

Hey everyone, I'm Mazarin and this is my first post here.

This is basically different Cold War geopolitical and geographical configurations, scenarios and set ups.

To Start with, different iron curtains.

Franco-German Iron Curtain: POD where the Soviets get to the German border(maybe a delayed D-Day or otherwise stalled western progress). Thus limiting the NATO States to France, the Low Countries, and also Spain and Portugal. Likely Soviet Denmark and possibly Finlanidized Scandinavia.

Pro Soviet Yugoslavia: This changes the Balkan front and threatens Greece and Turkey, and also menaces northeastern Italy and Austria. POD could be elimination of Tito and installation of pro soviet head of Yugoslavia.

Further eastern Iron Curtain-roughly going from Kaliningrad down the German-Polish border down to Yugoslavia and the Adriatic. Pro Western or Neutral Germany. Not sure what the POD would be here.

Communist Spain and Pyrenees Curtain: Republican Spain toppled by Stalinist faction. Thus threatening NATO's southwestern flank. Probably more US/British presence in Portugal and a stronger relationship with Morocco from the US.

Divided Greece: The Aegean Islands and Crete are held by anti communists while mainland Greece is held by Pre Soviet communists, POD Communist victory in the Greek Civil War.

Warsaw Pact Civil War-anti Stalinism in Hungary coalesces into a general anti Soviet(if not anti communist movement) leading to interstate and civil war in the 1950s. With the Red Army playing whack-a-mole. Leading to NATO getting as far as the Polish border and holding the advantage in Europe. Conventionally anyway.

US intervention in China-somewhat ASBish, but full scale intervention to prevent a Maoist victory, with more than 700,000 US troops. Leading to Vietnam x1000. A decade early. This prevents Mao from winning, but leads to a grinding and destructive war complete with nuclear bombings and extraordinary American casualties.

Soviet collapse in the late forties:Soviet Civil War, with Red Army generals and NKVD leaders fighting to rule-a post Stalin diadochi of sorts. American hegemony is unchallenged until the emergence of Germany, Japan, and other "western" powers as economic and geopolitical rivals.

Some of these are more plausible than others, and some may be seen as implausible here. Though I do not consider any of them to be impossible in the ASB sense. Feel free to discuss your own scenarios, configurations and variations. Or mine.

 

[Coiler]

Regardless of plausibility, any of them could easily make a great background for a story.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

I played around a little bit with the first one as part of a France Fights On scenario. I thought about making an alternate 1989 NATO overview like the one that's migrated from MicroArmorMayhem to Wikipedia to give an idea of how different Europe and Euro-American relationships would be.

 

[d32123]

I think the Yalta borders were pretty pre-determined. Maybe some tiny details could be altered but it's pretty clear that the Western Allies conceded as much territory as possible without conceding the defensibility or control of important choke points like the Danish Straits and the Turkish Straits or access to the Mediterranean or North Sea. The only way I can see the borders being significantly shifted is if either the US or the Soviet Union is in a much worse economic (as opposed to military) position during the later part of the war.

 

[Burton K Wheeler]

I think the Yalta borders were pretty pre-determined. Maybe some tiny details could be altered but it's pretty clear that the Western Allies conceded as much territory as possible without conceding the defensibility or control of important choke points like the Danish Straits and the Turkish Straits or access to the Mediterranean or North Sea. The only way I can see the borders being significantly shifted is if either the US or the Soviet Union is in a much worse economic (as opposed to military) position during the later part of the war.

I think all of these presuppose a POD before or early in the war. The specific one I mentioned has a POD in 1940.

 

[Mazarin]

Regardless of plausibility, any of them could easily make a great background for a story.

Definitely yeah, they don't have to be the story but the set up for it.

I think the Yalta borders were pretty pre-determined. Maybe some tiny details could be altered but it's pretty clear that the Western Allies conceded as much territory as possible without conceding the defensibility or control of important choke points like the Danish Straits and the Turkish Straits or access to the Mediterranean or North Sea. The only way I can see the borders being significantly shifted is if either the US or the Soviet Union is in a much worse economic (as opposed to military) position during the later part of the war.

As sort of indicated, most of these have a WW2 or prior(the fourth one) POD. So not the same Yalta.

 

[d32123]

As sort of indicated, most of these have a WW2 or prior(the fourth one) POD. So not the same Yalta.

Yes and I don't think things would significantly change without a PoD prior to 1943.

 

[Mazarin]

That’s why I think they’d have early war PODs or pre war PODs.

 

[SSgtC]

Pro Soviet Yugoslavia: This changes the Balkan front and threatens Greece and Turkey, and also menaces northeastern Italy and Austria. POD could be elimination of Tito and installation of pro soviet head of Yugoslavia.

Communist Spain and Pyrenees Curtain: Republican Spain toppled by Stalinist faction. Thus threatening NATO's southwestern flank. Probably more US/British presence in Portugal and a stronger relationship with Morocco from the US.

To me, these two sound like the most interesting ones. A pro Soviet Yugoslavia would change a lot in Europe and how NATO would set itself up. While a communist Spain is a huge wrench in the works and drastically alters how and where NATO deploys.

Warsaw Pact Civil War-anti Stalinism in Hungary coalesces into a general anti Soviet(if not anti communist movement) leading to interstate and civil war in the 1950s. With the Red Army playing whack-a-mole. Leading to NATO getting as far as the Polish border and holding the advantage in Europe. Conventionally anyway.

This one sounds like the most fun to write and read just for the sheer insanity of the what you could do here. And seeing what Moscow's reaction would be to NATO being almost on their doorstep without firing a single shot in the process.

US intervention in China-somewhat ASBish, but full scale intervention to prevent a Maoist victory, with more than 700,000 US troops. Leading to Vietnam x1000. A decade early. This prevents Mao from winning, but leads to a grinding and destructive war complete with nuclear bombings and extraordinary American casualties.

Maybe not as ASB as you think. Have Mao, or some hothead under his command, order an attack on US forces at the close of WWII (or on KMT forces with US advisors and have the CCP soldiers not take any prisoners). The US would be forced to respond. And would probably respond harshly.

 

[Mazarin]

To me, these two sound like the most interesting ones. A pro Soviet Yugoslavia would change a lot in Europe and how NATO would set itself up. While a communist Spain is a huge wrench in the works and drastically alters how and where NATO deploys.

A communist Spain leads to a Pyrenees curtain. The mountain passes will likely be very strongly entrenched and fortified. Probably with a few brigades or entire division on both sides. I suspect the Soviet aim would be less to invade southern France(assuming Communist Spain is a Soviet ally or client) and more to hold NATO forces in place. Whereas the NATO strategy would likely be much the same. Breaking through the mountains would require enough forces to divert from elsewhere.

A pro Soviet Yugoslavia, maybe that would lead to a NATO Austria? Lots more NATO assets in Northeastern Italy and the Adriatic. I could see planned amphibious landings from Italy-to the Balkan shore. Given Soviet naval weakness-I suspect anti ship batteries and aircraft would be in place to defend that.

This one sounds like the most fun to write and read just for the sheer insanity of the what you could do here. And seeing what Moscow's reaction would be to NATO being almost on their doorstep without firing a single shot in the process.

I sort of see it as similar to the wars in Eastern Europe at the close of WW1. Yeah the Soviets would be in shock and dismay.

Maybe not as ASB as you think. Have Mao, or some hothead under his command, order an attack on US forces at the close of WWII (or on KMT forces with US advisors and have the CCP soldiers not take any prisoners). The US would be forced to respond. And would probably respond harshly

Yeah thing is, China had been in a state of civil war for decades. Stalin would likely be happy to keep US forces tied down and bleeding. The anti communist policy would gain steam and the US would be forced if for no other reason than prestige to keep sending in more troops. Which would bleed the US dry.

 

[heraclius]

An earlier divide for Czechoslovakia if the US Army decides to launch a two-pronged strategy for the invasion of Germany in late 1944 via the Black Forest and upper Danube - ie 'Market Garden' and the thrust in the NW for Holland is sidelined as too risky (after Montgomery annoying too many generals at Allied High Command with his insistence on it?). This scenario might also be linked up to an earlier success by the Allies in central Italy in 1943, as beating the Germans to Rome after the anti-Mussolini coup and thus the German Army digging in on the 'Gothic Line' in the Apennines in autumn 1943 rather than rushing South to hold onto Rome and central Italy - meaning more of the Germans tied down in northern Italy in 1944 to prop Mussolini up in Lombardy as almost all the Italian army has defected to the Allies and helped to secure central Italy for them in 1943. The Allies have a stronger 'Southern strategy' as a result of their success in 1943 in Italy giving them confidence there, and a larger landing in S France in summer 1944 than in OTL
pushes N to Lyon and drives the Germans NE to the Vosges and Basle. This means more Allies troops in the Basle region by autumn 1944, and this thrust can head on across the upper Danube to Munich (to stop the threat of Hitler retiring to a Bavarian Alps redoubt ) and cross the Danube by April 1945.

Perhaps a more physically and mentally strong FDR is less exhausted and more wary of Stalin by this point so he is planning the post-war strategy better, and/ or the anti-Soviet 'cold warriors' have more influence
at the White House earlier. The US sees the need to stop Stalin gaining control of strategic parts of central Europe and sends troops NE to head for Prague, and can secure the main bits of Bohemia before Stalin's troops arrive - meaning that the Red Army (held up in Austria longer?) only gains Slovakia. Thus we have a 'Western' rump state in Bohemia, with President Benes and the 1935-8 government put back in power there, and the Communists of Czechoslovakia under Gottwald only in charge of Slovakia and possibly Moravia too. The 'Iron Curtain' runs N-S down the centre of Czechoslovakia instead of along the W border, Stalin has to accept 'facts on the ground' at Yalta, and a client US democracy runs the new 'Czech Republic' from 1945-89 - with Jan Masaryk succeeding Benes as President? The Soviet state to the E is thus more attuned to a Slovakian nationalist profile, while claiming to be the rightful govt of all of Czechoslovakia, and at best can infiltrate 'democratic' moderate Socialists into the Czech political Left in the 1960s and 1970s as a way of overthrowing the centre-rightist hegemony. A sort of equivalent of the Italian Communist party in Italy in 1950s-70s as the workers' representatives and the alternative to a Catholic-backed Christian Democrat hegemony, and a role for Alexander Dubcek as the 'liberal face of Communism' to win support as the stale Chr Dem party starts to lose support? So the 'Velvet Divorce' is merely confirmed in 1989, keeping the two states apart - or else a reaction to the forced split in 1945 is an argument for reunion like in OTl Germany, though weaker as the Czechs and Slovaks have less of a joint history pre-1940s?

I can't see the same sort of split up of Yugoslavia occurring in 1945 as the Allies would be too weak militarily and too preoccupied with the West to gain Croatia, and the Red Army would get there first even if the Cetniks had secured it in autumn 1944 - spring 1945 - and would then purge the latter as 'Nazi collaborators'. But if there is a stronger Allied presence in central Italy in 1943-4, as above, and greater aid to a stronger Monarchist military position in Yugoslavia before the Soviets arrive, Mihailovic and co could retreat NW ahead of a Russian purge and secure at least Slovenia, possibly Croatia if enough of the pro-Nazi regime's army and officials defected to the Allies quickly enough. The Allies and US were apparently keen to use refugee (some pro-Nazi) Ukrainians against Stalin in the later 1940s, so they might not be choosy of using former German collaborators to secure the NW of Yugoslavia in the chaos of April-June 1945. The Allies could then send in troops to secure the Dalmatian coast at the end of the war, not just Trieste as in OTL - and use the defecting White Russian Cossack regiments in Yugoslavia who in OTL had assisted the Germans and many of whom were apparently left alone to be dealt with by Stalin?

 

[Thande]

This is a very interesting topic. I've wanted to do a scenario based on these sorts of ideas for a while, though I think my initial plan suffers from 'try to fit in too many cool ideas simultaneously' and it's hard to picture a WW2 that could possibly result in all of them. As discussed above, it also likely requires sufficiently early PODs that the WW2 in question would be pretty unrecognisable from early on, which feels a little intellectually unsatisfying. If I do write it, I'll probably be deliberately extremely vague about WW2 and the years beforehand, leaving it as undefined backstory.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Idea did come to mind: Cold War borders are around Italy's neck of the woods, and Sicily is the furthest point of the Warsaw Pact in a Cuba analogue. What roughly would be needed for that?

 

[Mumby]

I've always felt the classic 'switched cold war' of a Red America vs White Russia is usually fundamentally flawed as it just makes Red America into a totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship while Russia becomes a constitutional monarchy/democratic republic and has no issues doing that. Marxism-Leninism emerged in the way it did due to specifically Russian reasons, I find it very unlikely the result of a Second American Revolution would be identical in character. Similarly, if you avoid the Bolshevik revolution, I am extremely doubtful that whatever emerges from the White movement would look democratic. More likely a military dictatorship, some weird monarchy, or even a theocracy. I still quite like the idea of a switched cold war, but I think your Red America would borrow a lot more from anarchism and syndicalism than it does from Leninism, and the White Russia would be pretty totalitarian.

 

[lordroel]

Hey everyone, I'm Mazarin and this is my first post here.

This is basically different Cold War geopolitical and geographical configurations, scenarios and set ups.

A Kingdom of Albania which is a NATO member would be a nice idea.

 

[Alex Richards]

Idea did come to mind: Cold War borders are around Italy's neck of the woods, and Sicily is the furthest point of the Warsaw Pact in a Cuba analogue. What roughly would be needed for that?

Something pretty catastrophic in terms of the Western Allies performance- you'd need to somehow have the Soviets sweep west and south while the Allies struggle to get out of North Africa.

 

[Jophiel]

Honestly, Republican Spain has so many factions inside it that a victorious Republican Spain would have a good scenario for any one that pops up:

Hardline Stalinists could take over, leading to a much more hostile response from NATO powers.

POUM also has a presence, though realistically the US would probably treat them the same.

Anarchists (probably just operating underneath a Democratic Spain, since I don't think they unfortunately have the capacity to take over and not be murdered by outside powers)... honestly I have no idea how they'd react to them but probably not well.

Social Democratic Spain, which would probably go to NATO early on.

There's a lot of potential paths to jump off from if you want a good cold war in Europe, and frankly each scenario could have both power blocs react differently, none of what I said is guaranteed at all.

 

[Yvonmukluk]

One idea I had would be Germany actually being disarmed as a neutral country, rather than being divided. Perhaps they might become a leading light of the non-aligned movement.

Presumably this Germany would be more left-wing, since if it was democratic the SPD's electoral heartlands wouldn't be on the other side of the Iron Curtain, which would presumably lead to some level of rapprochement with Eastern Europe with an earlier policy of Ostpolitik.

You could see perhaps a softer touch handling Czechoslovakia or Hungary on the USSR's part, since they would not want to give the reunified Germany any reason to actually being rearmament, which the West would gladly help with to try and bring them into the NATO camp (perhaps, similar to the Italians, the Hospitaller Air Force would be reconstituted).

And of course, the Non-Aligned movement itself would be interesting. If Allende's regime Chile had survived, it's possible the NAL would have drifted further leftward, not to mention wider implications for South America and the rest of the Third World.

The Congo crisis also has some rich fruit - Lumumba and/or Hammarskold's survival would have very interesting butterflies (and now I'm missing The Fountainhead Filibuster)...

 

[Coiler]

One idea I had would be Germany actually being disarmed as a neutral country, rather than being divided. Perhaps they might become a leading light of the non-aligned movement.

I've entertained the obviously-implausible-but-could-work-for-a-setting idea of a conventional Fuldapocalypse and Soviet military victory leading to three Germanies-the GDR, an officially neutral and limited militarily (a la OTL Austria and Finland) Germany taking up most of OTL West Germany, and a tiny rump FRG occupying the West German territory west of the Rhine.

 

[d32123]

One idea I had would be Germany actually being disarmed as a neutral country, rather than being divided. Perhaps they might become a leading light of the non-aligned movement.

Have you checked out @Ares96 's timeline?