All's Quiet on the Falklands

[King of Wessex]

I doubt Argentina will listen to the United States, their believe was we capture the island and it is done, no way that the United Kingdom would fight over them and no way the United States would punish them over it.

I think doing anything to annoy the USA would have been sucuidal for Galiteri. He only went ahead with the tacit support of the US, I thought.

 

[King of Wessex]

Ah, even then a member of the Soft Left or Right would have likely won.

It should be remembered that Benn only had a small base of support and even then even members of the Left didn't trust him (Foot actually told Benn to not stand for Deputy Leader because he would fear it would rip the party apart with many older leftists agreeing).

Benn being leader requires a different 81.

Yes. How sure are we that Foot would have resigned if Darlington had gone the other way? Because it'd be nicer if Foot resigned, Healey took up the reigns and there was a second election in 1984

 

[Time Enough]

Yes. How sure are we that Foot would have resigned if Darlington had gone the other way? Because it'd be nicer if Foot resigned, Healey took up the reigns and there was a second election in 1984

I would see him resigning for a younger person, Foot isn't going to hold on power long if he sees the writing on the wall. He'll probably help organise a leadership contest (so the party isn't in chaos) and then leave.

Foot isn't a Corbyn.

 

[King of Wessex]

I would see him resigning for a younger person, Foot isn't going to hold on power long if he sees the writing on the wall. He'll probably help organise a leadership contest (so the party isn't in chaos) and then leave.

Foot isn't a Corbyn.

I know. Someone said distinctly that he would resign and yield power to Denis Healey is Darlington flips to the SDP in the 1983 by-election, so that's throwing a monkey wrench into the TL. I know he wouldn't stay on and would probably let Healey take over in the second general election of 1984

 

[King of Wessex]

The point of this thread is, as I understand it, that - for whatever reason - the Falklands War doesn't take place (which has some interesting personal consequences for me, but that's a digression). It's looking at the consequences that follow on from that. The how and why the War doesn't start isn't that important, it could be that the Thatcher Government sends a couple of frigates and a hunter-killer submarine Down South in Feb 1982, or Uncle Sam says No, or whatever.

With that in mind, and bearing in mind that this is a digression to the thread: At the time, Operation Condor was in full-swing in Argentina, which had the support of the USA. There was a faction within the US Government that, as of April 1982 OTL, was in favour of supporting Argentina over Britain should push come to shove (this faction was most notably represented by Kirkpatrick). The argument deployed was that it really didn't matter a damn what the USA did, Britain would support it as a part of NATO, and Britain didn't need to be kept sweet. By contrast, Argentina was in the forefront of the fight against Communist Bandits In Latin America, poised to invade the USA with, well, God knows what, but that was the case, such as it was. It was, however, a very small part of the US Administration that thought that way, and the bulk favoured Britain.

At the point where the Task Force started trundling in a southerly direction, once the Great British public realised that the Falklands was not close to the Shetlands, the USA made a lot of effort to try and prevent a shooting war, on the basis that it wanted to be friends with both, and didn't want to be in a position of picking sides. It did, however, make it pretty clear to all involved that if it did come to shooting, it would be siding with the British and not the Argentinians.

At the start, Argentina was not in a good place. The economy was in tatters, there was civil unrest against the junta, Operation Condor was causing issues at home and abroad, and there was a new junta in place which calculated that the UK would essentially do nothing in response to an invasion, except complain to the UN, which would ignore things, and a great victory would be secured. The role of the US was essentially unimportant. Once that decision was made, the events took the course they did.

Maybe the POD was wrong, but it is entirely conceivable there was no "shooting" or the Falklands became a UN mandate or something along those lines. It would certainly mean the fall of Galiteri would be delayed a good 5 years, with devasting consequences for Argentina.

 

[lordroel]

I think doing anything to annoy the USA would have been sucuidal for Galiteri. He only went ahead with the tacit support of the US, I thought.

Well Reagan original phone call with Galtieri went like this:

“I have just talked at length with General Galtieri about the situation in the Falklands. I conveyed to him my personal concern about the possibility of an Argentine invasion. I told him that initiating military operations against the Falkland islands would seriously compromise relations between the United States and Argentina and I urged him to refrain from offensive action. I offered our good offices and my readiness to send a personal representative to assist in resolving the issues between Argentina and the United Kingdom. The General heard my message, but gave me no commitment that he would comply with it. Indeed, he spoke in terms of ultimatums and left me with the clear impression that he has embarked on a course of armed conflict. We will continue to cooperate with your Government in the effort to resolve this dispute. Both in attempting to avert hostilities and to stop them if they should break out. While we have a policy of neutrality on the sovereignty issue, we will not be neutral on the issue of Argentine use of military force.”

 

[King of Wessex]

Well Reagan original phone call with Galtieri went like this:

“I have just talked at length with General Galtieri about the situation in the Falklands. I conveyed to him my personal concern about the possibility of an Argentine invasion. I told him that initiating military operations against the Falkland islands would seriously compromise relations between the United States and Argentina and I urged him to refrain from offensive action. I offered our good offices and my readiness to send a personal representative to assist in resolving the issues between Argentina and the United Kingdom. The General heard my message, but gave me no commitment that he would comply with it. Indeed, he spoke in terms of ultimatums and left me with the clear impression that he has embarked on a course of armed conflict. We will continue to cooperate with your Government in the effort to resolve this dispute. Both in attempting to avert hostilities and to stop them if they should break out. While we have a policy of neutrality on the sovereignty issue, we will not be neutral on the issue of Argentine use of military force.”

Right. That basically rights of my POD. Although we don't know whether Reagan was telling the truth, and there's some suggestion that he was advised to back Argentina. Is there any other POD we could adopt? Getting Thatacher to abandon the Falkland islands seems like a non-starter, because she's Maggie.

 

[Charles EP M.]

Foot wasnt all that interested in clinging on to the leadership in the same way that Corbyn was. He privately suggested he would resign in favour of Healey if Labour lost the Darlington by election, which they unexpectedly won, but probably wouldnt in this TL, where Alliance are stronger. So he might not even have made it to a 1984 Election.

Ah, that would change a lot. Even if Healey doesn't win in '84, he'd likely do better than Foot - bad news for the Alliance! - and that makes it a lot easier for Labour to win the next election.

 

[King of Wessex]

Ah, that would change a lot. Even if Healey doesn't win in '84, he'd likely do better than Foot - bad news for the Alliance! - and that makes it a lot easier for Labour to win the next election.

Exactly. Don't treat my infobox as gospel, it was a litmus test. This is in a very early stage TL at the moment

 

[Time Enough]

One thing to consider is having Shirley Williams become leader of the SDP in 83 following Roy Jenkins resigning (maybe you could use people finding out about his relationship with Antony Crosland, people in 1983 Britain wouldn't be the biggest fans of a bisexual leader of a political party).

Unlike Roy Jenkins who comes off as a damp squib intellectual and David Owen who as I said elsewhere only really cared about himself (and would likely drive the SDP into a coalition with the Tories if it meant he got some power), Williams had the fire and passion to be a leader and a decent one at that.

I think if she keeps her seat in an alternate 83 election and she leads the party she would probably help.

Now you need to saddle Labour with a left wing leadership that isn't Foot (since Foot would fall on his own sword if it meant the Labour won) for the Alliance to eke out a win.

 

[King of Wessex]

I'm going to be leaving for exams. @Time Enough Do you want to take over the reigns? You seem very knowledgable about this

 

[Time Enough]

I'm going to be leaving for exams. @Time Enough Do you want to take over the reigns? You seem very knowledgable about this

Well I'm flattered but I'm busy with a masters so I'm going to have to decline. However I'll give you some quick PODs/ideas:

-Have Tony Benn become Deputy in 1981. Quite easy to do actually just have to change one vote. This causes a flight of various Labour folk including Peter Mandelson who was quite important in helping Labour in 80s/90s to become more marketable (the Red Rose was his idea etc.). Imagine what he could do with the SDP, particularly one that's already gaining popularity.

-Have Denis Healey have a heart attack etc. Leading to an odder Labour leadership election in the aftermath of a Labour defeat. Send it to the Left with Benn and the Labour Right might be more willing to give the SDP a shot...

Or you could have someone like Kilroy-Silk become leader leading Labour becoming weirdly RedKippy causing the Left to split off to make there own party or join the SDP.

-As I said keep David Owen away from Leadership somehow. Shirley William's is a good choice as I said. Also have Charles Kennedy become prominent in some way as he has the charm and political suaveness to help the SDP.

-Kneecap the Liberals in some way causing the SDP to take there thunder.

-The Tories would have to split over something at somepoint. Probably the EEC if anything, which the SDP can campaign for etc.

Those are some ideas to use as a jumping off point.

 

[King of Wessex]

Well I'm flattered but I'm busy with a masters so I'm going to have to decline. However I'll give you some quick PODs/ideas:

-Have Tony Benn become Deputy in 1981. Quite easy to do actually just have to change one vote. This causes a flight of various Labour folk including Peter Mandelson who was quite important in helping Labour in 80s/90s to become more marketable (the Red Rose was his idea etc.). Imagine what he could do with the SDP, particularly one that's already gaining popularity.

-Have Denis Healey have a heart attack etc. Leading to an odder Labour leadership election in the aftermath of a Labour defeat. Send it to the Left with Benn and the Labour Right might be more willing to give the SDP a shot...

Or you could have someone like Kilroy-Silk become leader leading Labour becoming weirdly RedKippy causing the Left to split off to make there own party or join the SDP.

-As I said keep David Owen away from Leadership somehow. Shirley William's is a good choice as I said. Also have Charles Kennedy become prominent in some way as he has the charm and political suaveness to help the SDP.

-Kneecap the Liberals in some way causing the SDP to take there thunder.

-The Tories would have to split over something at somepoint. Probably the EEC if anything, which the SDP can campaign for etc.

Those are some ideas to use as a jumping off point.

Those look like great ideas. I should say I'm starting with a POD (No Falklands) and seeing what happens, not trying to enigineer an SDP victory (I was basing the election result of 1984 off 1982 polling but make the Tories do a bit better because of lower inflation). Great graph on UK Polling Report shows you just how crucial the Falkalands were. So firstly I'm intrested in establishing what happens. If Foot goes, then Healey probably wouldn't screw things up as badly and we'd have an intresting contest

 

[King of Wessex]

Foot wasnt all that interested in clinging on to the leadership in the same way that Corbyn was. He privately suggested he would resign in favour of Healey if Labour lost the Darlington by election, which they unexpectedly won, but probably wouldnt in this TL, where Alliance are stronger. So he might not even have made it to a 1984 Election. If he had, he wouldnt overstay his welcome if the party felt they would do better in a second election without him- which they undoubtedly would.

Could I press you on this. How sure of you of this fact? I'm not doubting you, but it drastically effects the potential TL so it'd be good to have a concrete source that he'd resign (thus Healey would do somewhat better, as you say)

 

[King of Wessex]

With Healey, the alliance would do considerably worse and Labour considerably better

 

[Nomad]

Could I press you on this. How sure of you of this fact? I'm not doubting you, but it drastically effects the potential TL so it'd be good to have a concrete source that he'd resign (thus Healey would do somewhat better, as you say)

On closer examination, I can't actually find anything that says Foot himself said he would resign if Darlington was lost. However, it was strongly rumoured at the time, and subsequently confirmed by senior figures in the party that the right would attempt a coup against Foot if Darlington were lost. Foot was very much unlike Corbyn in that he did have a very real concern for the unity of the party, so he would be substantially more likely to stand down if it was clear the party were against him. It's possible that he could actually have to resign if he lost a vote of no confidence with the PLP; the rule that allowed Corbyn to stay on in 2016 was devised under John Smith and I don't know what it was before then.

 

[Arthur_Phuxache]

but he was wedded to scrapping Trident and leaving the EU. I'm not sure how far he could get.

As Trident wouldn't be close entering service until 1994, Foot would have scrap Polaris instead.

While leaving the EEC and NATO.

 

[King of Wessex]

As Trident wouldn't be close entering service until 1994, Foot would have scrap Polaris instead.

While leaving the EEC and NATO.

Very true