All's Quiet on the Falklands

[King of Wessex]

Chapter 1: False Alarm:

1st April, 1982. A Phone call is exchanged between Galiteri and Raegan. Raegan has just heard of a top secret Argentinian plan to invade the British colony of the Falkland Islands.

"Mr Galiteri, this invasion will not stand if you go ahead. You can consider the United States not a friend but a foe, and we wil certainly not provide you aid. We are perfectly happy to push your case at the United Nations, but I cannot mortgage our oldest ally and sell them out like this. Mr Galiteri, it's a no."

Galiteri, propped up only by US hospitality, knew he had to comply. The gunboats weren't sent, the fleets remained in port. Galiteri said he had mobilized because of the threat of 'internal communist subversion'. Britain quietly stepped up on the Falkands.

But the islands themselves were unharmed. Life continued, as normal.

 

[King of Wessex]

Election 1983:

The election saw two unpopulat parties pitted against eachother. Foot was in the lead at the start of the campaign, but the radical manifesto dragged him down in the polls. The alliance capitalised on the unpopularity of both main parties and pitched themselves as the 'party of common sense'. The economic recovery in 1983 saw a moderate incline in the conservative vote, but by election day the SPD-Liberal Alliance was ahead in the polls. On election day, the Conservatives lost 90 seats but remained the largest parties, with the SPD-Liberal Alliance winning the popular vote, the first time since 1906. Despite this, they came a distant third in terms of seats, scoring 117 seats. With the Hung parliament, the future was uncertain.

 

[King of Wessex]

N.B. The Seat change numbers don't add up because of boundary changes.

 

[King of Wessex]

I'd appreciate some help at this point. The election result was a farily easy call, I just based it on what the polls in early 1982 were saying and increased the conservatives and decreased Labour slightly. I think there'd be a second election that year, but what do you think the result with be

 

[Time Enough]

I'd appreciate some help at this point. The election result was a farily easy call, I just based it on what the polls in early 1982 were saying and increased the conservatives and decreased Labour slightly. I think there'd be a second election that year, but what do you think the result with be

I would say a small increase for the Alliance or Labour. Conservatives probably stay the same.

I could see Alliance-Con supply and demand.

 

[King of Wessex]

I would say a small increase for the Alliance or Labour. Conservatives probably stay the same.

I could see Alliance-Con supply and demand.

The economy was getting constantly better through 1983, though, so that might help the Tories. One more thing though; people may see the alliance getting the popular vote and be convinced Labour is a dead horse, so Labour might lose votes. Especially if Foot is still there with his sucuide note manifesto.

 

[Time Enough]

The economy was getting constantly better through 1983, though, so that might help the Tories. One more thing though; people may see the alliance getting the popular vote and be convinced Labour is a dead horse, so Labour might lose votes. Especially if Foot is still there with his sucuide note manifesto.

I can see Foot being terfed but I don't see the Labour vote tanking too much. I could see it going from 239 to maybe 230-225 at a push (bad but as seen recently could be worse).

It should be remembered too that the Alliance didn't just hurt Labour it also hurt the Tories too in some areas.

Also the Red Wall is still a major thing so there's that too. So yeah Con-Alliance supply and demand

 

[King of Wessex]

I can see Foot being terfed but I don't see the Labour vote tanking too much. I could see it going from 239 to maybe 230-225 at a push (bad but as seen recently could be worse).

It should be remembered too that the Alliance didn't just hurt Labour it also hurt the Tories too in some areas.

Also the Red Wall is still a major thing so there's that too. So yeah Con-Alliance supply and demand

I should mention I'm using a swingometer, so the seat calculations are semi-estimates but based on the 1983 result.
If the election happens 3 months after, FOot won't have time to be terfed. Maybe there'd be a mass defection event to the SPD, that's what I'm thinking.

 

[Time Enough]

I should mention I'm using a swingometer, so the seat calculations are semi-estimates but based on the 1983 result.
If the election happens 3 months after, FOot won't have time to be terfed. Maybe there'd be a mass defection event to the SPD, that's what I'm thinking.

The problem was the SDP was a new untested group. Whilst it's leaders were Cabinet members at one point it was still a new party and new parties have to cement themselves as a viable opposition before people defect to them. The Liberals meanwhile were considered more as a group of eccentrics with similar politics than an actual party, harmless but you wouldn't want them leading a country (actually if anything thing combination of David Steel and the SDP forced them to buck up there ideas and the new blood of the party helped that in the 80s).

Also you have to remember that whilst Labour had a Left Wing Leader and Manifesto a large number of it's shadow cabinet weren't and the soothed the worries of many of the more right wing members of the Labour Party. Even if the SDP gets more votes as long as folks like Healey or Kinnock are around then Labour will be seen as the major opposition

Now if per say Benn was Deputy Leader whilst Foot was leader then things are different, in that situation more of Labour's Right will leave since the Party has overwhelming decided that it's going to the Left and with it the mass defection that you were talking about.

 

[Nomad]

I'm not entirely convinced that we would even have a 1983 Election in these circumstances. Thatcher is not going to go to the country if the polls are pointing to a hung parliament, especially if she still has a year to go with an improving economy.

I'd appreciate some help at this point. The election result was a farily easy call, I just based it on what the polls in early 1982 were saying and increased the conservatives and decreased Labour slightly. I think there'd be a second election that year, but what do you think the result with be

It would probably benefit the two main parties at the expense of the Alliance, as they would likely have deeper pockets, plus the result would only serve to highlight the idea of the SDP/Liberals as a 'wasted vote' in the minds of the electorate-even when they won they won the most votes, they still came nowhere near leading a government.

As has also been touched on, Labour would likely have a new leader-probably either Kinnock or Healey, both of whom would perform immeasurably better. Short of electing Tony Benn, which is unlikely, it's hard to get a leader who is more of a liability than Foot at this point. I wouldn't be suprised if the Tories also decide to dump Maggie in favour of Whitelaw or someone, given that the scale of the losses they sustained.

 

[King of Wessex]

I'm not entirely convinced that we would even have a 1983 Election in these circumstances. Thatcher is not going to go to the country if the polls are pointing to a hung parliament, especially if she still has a year to go with an improving economy.

It would probably benefit the two main parties at the expense of the Alliance, as they would likely have deeper pockets, plus the result would only serve to highlight the idea of the SDP/Liberals as a 'wasted vote' in the minds of the electorate-even when they won they won the most votes, they still came nowhere near leading a government.

As has also been touched on, Labour would likely have a new leader-probably either Kinnock or Healey, both of whom would perform immeasurably better. Short of electing Tony Benn, which is unlikely, it's hard to get a leader who is more of a liability than Foot at this point. I wouldn't be suprised if the Tories also decide to dump Maggie in favour of Whitelaw or someone, given that the scale of the losses they sustained.

Yes true. 1984 then, and she'd probably do better. Foot isn't going to go until he loses the election

 

[King of Wessex]

The thing about Foot is that he was an instant electability negative for the Labour Party. He was a good man, unlike Corbyn (he wrote a pamphlet criticising the appeaser called the guilty men which is quite courgaeous), but he was wedded to scrapping Trident and leaving the EU. I'm not sure how far he could get.

 

[Nomad]

Yes true. 1984 then, and she'd probably do better. Foot isn't going to go until he loses the election

Foot wasnt all that interested in clinging on to the leadership in the same way that Corbyn was. He privately suggested he would resign in favour of Healey if Labour lost the Darlington by election, which they unexpectedly won, but probably wouldnt in this TL, where Alliance are stronger. So he might not even have made it to a 1984 Election. If he had, he wouldnt overstay his welcome if the party felt they would do better in a second election without him- which they undoubtedly would.

 

[King of Wessex]

Foot wasnt all that interested in clinging on to the leadership in the same way that Corbyn was. He privately suggested he would resign in favour of Healey if Labour lost the Darlington by election, which they unexpectedly won, but probably wouldnt in this TL, where Alliance are stronger. So he might not even have made it to a 1984 Election. If he had, he wouldnt overstay his welcome if the party felt they would do better in a second election without him- which they undoubtedly would.

Ah that is interesting news about the Darlington by-election. How sure are we Healey would have won? Labour ahd gone pretty far-left by this point.

 

[King of Wessex]

Because if Thatcher calls the election in 1984, Labour has time for a leadership contest.

 

[King of Wessex]

What if Foot resigned but Tony Benn was elected as Labour leader? I

 

[Time Enough]

What if Foot resigned but Tony Benn was elected as Labour leader? I

Unlikely, it would be Kinnock, Healey or one of the other soft left/right of the Labour Party in the aftermath of a Foot defeat.

Unless he wins the Deputy Leadership and uses it to whip the CLP's for him during the leadership etc. whilst the Right is split between Kinnock, Healey etc. Leading to him just squeezing through as leader. But that would be hard to pull off.

 

[lordroel]

Chapter 1: False Alarm:

1st April, 1982. A Phone call is exchanged between Galiteri and Raegan. Raegan has just heard of a top secret Argentinian plan to invade the British colony of the Falkland Islands.

"Mr Galiteri, this invasion will not stand if you go ahead. You can consider the United States not a friend but a foe, and we wil certainly not provide you aid. We are perfectly happy to push your case at the United Nations, but I cannot mortgage our oldest ally and sell them out like this. Mr Galiteri, it's a no."

Galiteri, propped up only by US hospitality, knew he had to comply. The gunboats weren't sent, the fleets remained in port. Galiteri said he had mobilized because of the threat of 'internal communist subversion'. Britain quietly stepped up on the Falkands.

But the islands themselves were unharmed. Life continued, as normal.

I doubt Argentina will listen to the United States, their believe was we capture the island and it is done, no way that the United Kingdom would fight over them and no way the United States would punish them over it.

 

[King of Wessex]

Unlikely, it would be Kinnock, Healey or one of the other soft left/right of the Labour Party in the aftermath of a Foot defeat.

Unless he wins the Deputy Leadership and uses it to whip the CLP's for him during the leadership etc. whilst the Right is split between Kinnock, Healey etc. Leading to him just squeezing through as leader. But that would be hard to pull off.

I was talking about Darlington by-election. Apparently FOot would have gone had he lost.

 

[Time Enough]

I was talking about Darlington by-election. Apparently FOot would have gone had he lost.

Ah, even then a member of the Soft Left or Right would have likely won.

It should be remembered that Benn only had a small base of support and even then even members of the Left didn't trust him (Foot actually told Benn to not stand for Deputy Leader because he would fear it would rip the party apart with many older leftists agreeing).

Benn being leader requires a different 81.