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AHC/WI: Explicitly pro-IRA government in Ireland during the Troubles

lerk

Well-known member
Essentially, Ireland is to the IRA what North Vietnam was to the Vietcong, Pakistan to the Afghan Mujahideen, and Iran/Syria to Hezbollah. That is, they fund the organization, provide them with weapons (much more weapons and more powerful than what any normal insurgent group would be able to obtain), allow "ratlines" which lead to Irish both in and out of Ireland coming across to Northern Ireland to fight alongside the IRA, etc.

1) How could this be done?
2) What would be the impacts of this?
 
Essentially, Ireland is to the IRA what North Vietnam was to the Vietcong, Pakistan to the Afghan Mujahideen, and Iran/Syria to Hezbollah. That is, they fund the organization, provide them with weapons (much more weapons and more powerful than what any normal insurgent group would be able to obtain), allow "ratlines" which lead to Irish both in and out of Ireland coming across to Northern Ireland to fight alongside the IRA, etc.

1) How could this be done?
2) What would be the impacts of this?

1) I think it would require an incredibly stupid Irish government.
2) The British would probably invade and install a friendly government.
 
The biggest problem with this is economics. Britain is Ireland's largest trade partner, and as shown by the Trade War in the 1930s Britain deciding to restrict trade with Ireland would cripple the Irish economy. Plus, this sort of behavior would threaten Ireland's ability to join the European Economic Community and get the benefits of integration. The second biggest problem is geopolitics. An Ireland which supported the IRA is going to be very isolated on the international stage, with Britain and its NATO allies shunning it (the US would act more conciliatory towards Ireland than the rest of NATO, but they'll have to do something to support Britain). Also, Britain could attack Ireland for this, although I suspect that would be an absolute last resort (and would probably be less "install a new government which we then have to prop up" and more "bomb Dublin until the current government agrees to cut the IRA off").
 
The biggest problem with this is economics. Britain is Ireland's largest trade partner, and as shown by the Trade War in the 1930s Britain deciding to restrict trade with Ireland would cripple the Irish economy. Plus, this sort of behavior would threaten Ireland's ability to join the European Economic Community and get the benefits of integration. The second biggest problem is geopolitics. An Ireland which supported the IRA is going to be very isolated on the international stage, with Britain and its NATO allies shunning it (the US would act more conciliatory towards Ireland than the rest of NATO, but they'll have to do something to support Britain). Also, Britain could attack Ireland for this, although I suspect that would be an absolute last resort (and would probably be less "install a new government which we then have to prop up" and more "bomb Dublin until the current government agrees to cut the IRA off").

Yes, I went too far with the invasion part.
 
The IRA denied that the Irish government was legitimate - it argued that the Anglo-Irish Treaty was illegal, and therefore that the Irish Republic declared in 1916 continued to exist. For any Ireland to support the IRA, you need an extremely different IRA to exist, one likely coming from very different historical roots.
 
Though very much implausible I do think that such a scenario could lead to a very interesting story where Northern Ireland is like Gaza and occasionally the IRA launches rockets into Great Britain proper and the UK has to defend itself using its own Iron Dome. The activist class in other countries supports the Irish cause whereas the establishment is firmly within the pro-UK camp. The impact on the politics and society of the UK and Ireland as a result of this would be interesting as well.
 
The IRA denied that the Irish government was legitimate - it argued that the Anglo-Irish Treaty was illegal, and therefore that the Irish Republic declared in 1916 continued to exist. For any Ireland to support the IRA, you need an extremely different IRA to exist, one likely coming from very different historical roots.

Eh, I think that'd disappear quietly in favour of pragmatism if the government is willing to back them up in defiance of said treaties.
 
@Indicus has hit the nail on the head with the absolute biggest problem. The Irish government won't openly back an organisation that things the Irish government shouldn't exist and instead the IRA other good republicans should be the government. Either the IRA have to change their minds, or you need another group that's allohistorically the IRA but with a different name & view and then it likely leads to "Britain crushes Ireland, violence against diaspora, misery".

For an Irish government to do this, it'd need a reason to believe Britain can't batter them, something has gone very wrong in Dublin, or Britain's the one that's going to be the pariah state & other countries will back up Ireland instead.
 
IIRC, around the time the Troubles starting going, the IRA was deep into its Marxist phase (which the Official/Provisional split did not help bit). Seen from that angle, any Irish government that wishes to torpedo the brief economic miracle that was just starting under Sean Lemass, and hence increase illegal emigration to the US, is going to attract the attention of the CIA sooner or later, overthrowing yet another perceived Communist government (even if, in this case, the government clearly is very much anti-Communist). Coming very soon after the troubles in Greece and the whole Operation Gladio thing, not to mention Vietnam and all the other attempts to overthrow governments in Latin America, that might increase the amount of anti-American sentiment in Europe.
 
IIRC, around the time the Troubles starting going, the IRA was deep into its Marxist phase (which the Official/Provisional split did not help bit). Seen from that angle, any Irish government that wishes to torpedo the brief economic miracle that was just starting under Sean Lemass, and hence increase illegal emigration to the US, is going to attract the attention of the CIA sooner or later, overthrowing yet another perceived Communist government (even if, in this case, the government clearly is very much anti-Communist). Coming very soon after the troubles in Greece and the whole Operation Gladio thing, not to mention Vietnam and all the other attempts to overthrow governments in Latin America, that might increase the amount of anti-American sentiment in Europe.

How would Irish illegally emigrate to the US? There is a large ocean in the middle.
Why would illegal immigration be associated with communism?
 
How would Irish illegally emigrate to the US? There is a large ocean in the middle.

Drive to Shannon Airport and hop on the next plane crossing the Atlantic - all while forgetting to let INS or anyone else know they wish to fill out a visa application (or, indeed, overstay their visa-exempt period).

Why would illegal immigration be associated with communism?

In this case, it would be perceived by the CIA and others as fleeing from a Communist system - even though Ireland at that time clearly was not Communist, but supporting an organization that at the time was openly professing Marxism would be enough proof of that based on the flimsy evidence used to justify various military coups in Latin America.
 
Drive to Shannon Airport and hop on the next plane crossing the Atlantic - all while forgetting to let INS or anyone else know they wish to fill out a visa application (or, indeed, overstay their visa-exempt period).



In this case, it would be perceived by the CIA and others as fleeing from a Communist system - even though Ireland at that time clearly was not Communist, but supporting an organization that at the time was openly professing Marxism would be enough proof of that based on the flimsy evidence used to justify various military coups in Latin America.

Many Americans supported the IRA. The US would be afraid of taking an anti-Irish position because of their large Irish community.
 
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