AHC: The SDP goes the way of TIG

[Meadow]

With today’s news that CUK-TIG-RA-HOGWARTS has itself split, bringing forward the death knell for the party after just three months or so, it’s time to talk about how this fate might have come about for the SDP in 1981.

A few thoughts occur: Jenkins wanted to just join the Liberals anyway, which is what the TIG element of the split will probably do. But that wouldn’t count as a parallel if the Gang of Four just upped and did that from the start.

It’s also possible that the SDP could never have failed this hard, precisely because the Four were too high profile and Good. Jenkins speaks for himself, Owen was a wunderkind, Williams was a trailblazing woman with huge profile, and Rodgers, for all the jokes, was a very popular backbencher and is said to be the reason so many people defected with the original Four. Maybe the same four could have completely messed up their first few months somehow and then quietly joined the Liberals. But it’s hard to see them polling as badly as CUKTIG did.

So I will allow answers that in fact change who the Gang of Four are - TIG didn’t have any Normie big-hitters, just Chuka, who inaccurately thought he was.

Also, feel free to do the reverse - AHC: Save TIG - perhaps by constructing a Gang of Four 2019 Edition that would’ve had some success. My instinct for this to work is you need another member named David, who also served as a fresh-faced Foreign Secretary...

 

[Thande]

I think you've highlighted the main reasons why this is difficult--the people involved, even ignoring our tendency to romanticise the past, were objectively bigger hitters.

I think I did do one PM list along these lines where the idea was that Jenkins had just joined the Liberals and the other three just ultimately failed to launch as a party and ended up sitting as independents until 1983 and then losing their seats or retiring. However, I don't think I came up with justifying reasons for it.

 

[OwenM]

I think you've highlighted the main reasons why this is difficult--the people involved, even ignoring our tendency to romanticise the past, were objectively bigger hitters.

I think I did do one PM list along these lines where the idea was that Jenkins had just joined the Liberals and the other three just ultimately failed to launch as a party and ended up sitting as independents until 1983 and then losing their seats or retiring. However, I don't think I came up with justifying reasons for it.

I'd forgotten that, but it was pretty much what I was thinking.
For the different Gang approach, George Brown strikes me as an obvious alt-member - and whilst Rodgers was, as said, more significant than joked, I think his lack of notice with the *public* makes him the most reasonable to keep.

 

[Mumby]

I think a good POD could be the dispute over how to elect the Leader. David Owen and Shirley Williams were in favour of OMOV whereas Roy Jenkins and Bill Rodgers wanted a leadership election carried out amongst the party caucus alone.

IOTL, the conference in February 1982 decided to hold the election under OMOV. If somehow this decision was altered, and the election in July 1982 was held only amongst the party's MPs it is likely that Jenkins would have won handily and pissed off Owen.

Maybe if this was in combination with Jenkins pursuing a closer relationship with the Liberals with a seemingly stronger mandate from the leadership election, you could see a split in the parliamentary party between Owenites and Jenkinsites.

 

[Thande]

I think a good POD could be the dispute over how to elect the Leader. David Owen and Shirley Williams were in favour of OMOV whereas Roy Jenkins and Bill Rodgers wanted a leadership election carried out amongst the party caucus alone.

IOTL, the conference in February 1982 decided to hold the election under OMOV. If somehow this decision was altered, and the election in July 1982 was held only amongst the party's MPs it is likely that Jenkins would have won handily and pissed off Owen.

Maybe if this was in combination with Jenkins pursuing a closer relationship with the Liberals with a seemingly stronger mandate from the leadership election, you could see a split in the parliamentary party between Owenites and Jenkinsites.

I think Owen (not sure about Williams) was principled enough to have stayed in Labour if OMOV was used but Foot won by that method.

 

[OwenM]

I think Owen (not sure about Williams) was principled enough to have stayed in Labour if OMOV was used but Foot won by that method.

I think he was talking about SDP leadership.
In any case I don't think OMOV was on the table in that round for Labour.

 

[Mumby]

I think Owen (not sure about Williams) was principled enough to have stayed in Labour if OMOV was used but Foot won by that method.

I'm actually pretty sure OMOV is Owen's Big Thing, it makes his drift back toward Labour in the last decade make a lot more sense.

 

[Thande]

I'm actually pretty sure OMOV is Owen's Big Thing, it makes his drift back toward Labour in the last decade make a lot more sense.

He certainly makes that stance in his autobiography, I was sceptical at the time but I think recent events suggest he's stuck to that.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

I don't know enough about the SDP to comment. In terms of strengthening TiG: speaking as someone who doesn't like TiG, but had the profoundly uncomfortable experience of their walkout making me realise I couldn't vote for Labour anymore-

Their strongest asset was also one they had to immediately take off the table. If you look at that original press conference, in the main it's empty suits and platitudes. Even when I agreed with what a person was saying, the style suggested that they hadn't learned that you can't simply rewind the clock to New Labour.

Berger was different. It's a cliche that people want authenticity these days, as if anyone has ever said to a pollster 'what I really want is a politician who's fake.' But when she spoke about the pain of Labour leaving her, she took the moral high ground- and Labour's silence over the next few days (and then abortive movement towards a second referendum) gave the brief impression that Labour had been generally spooked on the issues of antisemitism and Brexit.

I think that if you want to strengthen TiG, then delaying Berger's pregnancy would be a good start. Keep her in front of the cameras, and ideally- let's handwave this- botch the Labour party's response to the split even more. This would be an (in)appropriate moment for Pete Willsman to say something, perhaps.

Within a fortnight- a week- alright, the first day- it was it clear that TiG was a vanity project for people like Chuka. If they're going to get more defectors in Parliament than they need to come across as the persecuted voice of reason that they occasionally managed to be for whole minutes at a time.

How to solve the problem of the Lib Dems and Greens, I've no idea.

 

[Mumby]

I think a good POD maybe could be Shirley Williams deciding not to stand in the Crosby by-election in November 1981. IOTL she wasn't especially keen about standing to rejoin the 'boy's club' of Parliament and thought her talents would be better put to use outside Parliament. If the SDP's candidate is a relative unknown, you could see a Tory hold and the elimination of the other big proponent of OMOV at SDP leadership elections.

That means you don't see the SDP successfully win a seat until the Glasgow Hillhead by-election in March 1982 - by which point the party has probably settled on MPs electing the Leader and if there is a nasty atmosphere around that, it might muddy the waters enough to let the Tories defeat Jenkins.

If Jenkins still wins the leadership after failing to win two by-elections and not being in Parliament, Owen would be understandably infuriated and might well split with the Jenkinsites. From then on there'd be two SDPs shouting over each other and unlikely to achieve even the 6 seats they won in 1983. Any remnant of the Jenkinsites (probably the only ones with parliamentary representation due to the pact with the Liberals) would probably fold into the Liberals without any name change.

 

[AgentRudda]

As for AHC TIG, I don't think it'd have ever succeeded without Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, and maybe someone from the current shadow cabinet, perhaps Ashworth. Also bonus points if you manage to get Sadiq Khan to quit Labour as well, and try to Ken Livingstone his way to re-election in 2020.

I say this because, nine years on from leaving government, those are the only people who carry big sway with the normies.

 

[Meadow]

As for AHC TIG, I don't think it'd have ever succeeded without Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, and maybe someone from the current shadow cabinet, perhaps Ashworth. Also bonus points if you manage to get Sadiq Khan to quit Labour as well, and try to Ken Livingstone his way to re-election in 2020.

I say this because, nine years on from leaving government, those are the only people who carry big sway with the normies.

This is key - 9 years after 2010 vs 2 years after 1979 (less than, really) is hard to overstate as a difference.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually think a Literally Tony Actual Blair involvement would've lasted longer than four months. Probably wouldn't have worked long term but I can see I'm Back 2019: The Illiberals winning a couple of MEPs.

 

[Thande]

As for AHC TIG, I don't think it'd have ever succeeded without Ed Miliband, Yvette Cooper, and maybe someone from the current shadow cabinet, perhaps Ashworth. Also bonus points if you manage to get Sadiq Khan to quit Labour as well, and try to Ken Livingstone his way to re-election in 2020.

I say this because, nine years on from leaving government, those are the only people who carry big sway with the normies.

Do you mean within the Labour Party? Because the only one of those names who I think has any significant sway with ordinary voters is Khan in London.

 

[AgentRudda]

Do you mean within the Labour Party? Because the only one of those names who I think has any significant sway with ordinary voters is Khan in London.

I think Khan and the Miliband brothers have pretty big sway. Others, like Cooper and Hilary Benn, are popular big names within the Labour soft left so could help bring more of them along - ie people who are in the camp so not normies, but not necessarily the political obsessives.

I wonder whether you can get both Milibands going, or if it's one or the other.

 

[Thande]

I think Khan and the Miliband brothers have pretty big sway. Others, like Cooper and Hilary Benn, are popular big names within the Labour soft left so could help bring more of them along - ie people who are in the camp so not normies, but not necessarily the political obsessives.

I wonder whether you can get both Milibands going, or if it's one or the other.

I think for "people within the camp so not normies" what you say is probably correct, and that's needed to get the critical mass of activists, candidates to contest local elections and so on, which TIG lacked and to keep the party going.

I suppose it does make it look 'more serious' to the electorate as a whole if there are names they recognise, at least. One thing with TIG is I don't think they realised just how few people know who even Umunna and Soubry are, never mind the rest.

 

[Meadow]

I think for "people within the camp so not normies" what you say is probably correct, and that's needed to get the critical mass of activists, candidates to contest local elections and so on, which TIG lacked and to keep the party going.

I suppose it does make it look 'more serious' to the electorate as a whole if there are names they recognise, at least. One thing with TIG is I don't think they realised just how few people know who even Umunna and Soubry are, never mind the rest.

Cooper has been a bit of a hero to FBPE in a way that Umunna hasn't, thanks to Actually Doing Parliamentary Things to try to stop Brexit. She'd have been a coup.

 

[Mumby]

An interesting consequence of the SDP tripping over its laces and just completely fucking it is that it might help out Labour slightly - I'm not saying 'the Alliance stole Labour voters grrr' but you saw pretty consistent Labour leads in the polls up until the Crosby by-election. In the absence of that publicity and then the internescine conflict of the secessionist Labour right, it might reflect better on the Labour leadership and lead to a better polling average. Maybe Thatcher does a 'May 17' and 1983 turns out to be a net loss for the Tories and they have to work out some sort of confidence and supply with the Liberals?

 

[OwenM]

ISTR Cooper being the most well known current Labour MP after Corbyn.

 

[Thande]

ISTR Cooper being the most well known current Labour MP after Corbyn.

I find that very hard to believe on the face of it - but then I wonder if Balls on Strictly Come Dancing helped.

 

[Meadow]

An interesting consequence of the SDP tripping over its laces and just completely fucking it is that it might help out Labour slightly - I'm not saying 'the Alliance stole Labour voters grrr' but you saw pretty consistent Labour leads in the polls up until the Crosby by-election. In the absence of that publicity and then the internescine conflict of the secessionist Labour right, it might reflect better on the Labour leadership and lead to a better polling average. Maybe Thatcher does a 'May 17' and 1983 turns out to be a net loss for the Tories and they have to work out some sort of confidence and supply with the Liberals?

The real fight is for David Steel.