AHC: Conservative/Liberal Coalition or Pact 1974

[RyanF]

That's right! The successful Seelöwe of post-War British politics! How could the Conservatives under Ted Heath and the Liberals under Jeremy Thorpe have formed a coalition government after the February 1974 election?

Following the February 1974 election, called by Prime Minister Heath at the height of the Three-Day Week arising from industrial action asking the UK "Who governs?" The Conservatives would win the largest voteshare, at a little over 200,000 more votes than Harold Wilson's Labour Party. However, due to the nature of the electoral system Labour still wound up with 4 more seats than the Conservatives. With neither party having enough to form a government majority, Heath did not resign as Prime Minister but opened coalition negotiations with Thorpe.

Neither party was overly keen on working with the other, and even if they had agreed to a coalition they would still be some seven seats short of a majority. They would be dependent on the Ulster Unionists and perhaps even the Scottish Nationalists or Plaid Cymru to pass legislation. Heath for his part offered Thorpe a cabinet post, and a number of more junior ministries for other senior Liberals. After some discussion, Thorpe made it clear that a commitment to a Speaker's Conference on electoral reform and a promise of legislation introducing it's proposals - if the Conference proposals were acceptable to the Liberals of course. A Speaker's Conference was one thing, but to make a commitment to introduce legislation based on it was too far, so the Coalition negotiations broke down.

Thorpe later conceded that a Coalition would have possibly split the Liberal Party, but what if they had been able to agree to terms?

Would the Conservatives coming out of the February 1974 election as the largest party have done the trick? Enough so that they form a majority government with the Liberals and would not be dependent on either the Ulster Unionists or Scottish Nationalists. Might the Liberals have been more willing to accept the promise of a Speaker's Conference without a firm commitment to enact its proposals? Be able to take back to the party and voters the case that they have put country above party politics. What would such a government look like? Would it survive long enough to have the eventual breakdown over any proposals on electoral reform? Would they collapse in strikes and be gone before Christmas?

 

[moth]

Had Thorpe been more open to Grimond when he was consulting his ‘inner circle’, he may have accepted what Heath was giving him without firm commitment. Pretty much everyone, including Steel and Byers, were surprised that Thorpe didn’t jump at the chance, although I suspect the potential of a rupture in the Membership was quite heavy on his mind (the Young Liberals were going about publically calling him a traitor for even considering Coalition, after all, and Thorpe was practically buried under intense pressure to tell Heath to do one). Otherwise, the Unionists would be initially relied upon, and Thrope’s Unionist heritage may help slightly, or at least until they remember that he walked among the Catholics when he visited the province and was a big supporter of Civil Rights. Labour defectors may help- Dick Taverne would have been part of this Coalition, and the idea from Thorpe’s end was to have more Taverne like jumpers to achieve his ‘national unity’ pledge. Not Roy Jenkins, but I imagine some can be found.

Otherwise, Heath would have stood down, I think. Had Thorpe decided to go for it, Heath would have been prime target to get rid of, given how he would have been seen as a big obstacle in the way of the Liberal Party accepting an offer. Thorpe may keep him around but lobby hard for Home Secretary over Heath’s intended posting in the Foreign Office; better to dominate a weak PM on the Home Front, I suppose.