The much unloved UCUNF was by any metric a failure, driving away the UUP's sole MP (Sylvia Hermon) and throwing its weight behind independent Rodney Connor in Fermanagh and South Tyrone didn't succeed with Sinn Fein's Michelle Gildernew winning by only 4 votes.
But was there a chance for more success and could it revive the fortunes of the increasingly moribund Ulster Unionists? I'd think you need to keep Hermon onside though thats going to be very difficult as she had very deep misgivings about the alliance and would resign from the party to become an independent OTL. If Empey can take out Willie McCrea that would be a big scalp, and probably means he stays on which means they avoid Tom Elliots rather limp period as leader. If the Conservatives and Unionists can return an MP I think they would be assured some sort of cabinet position as a reward and to demonstrate Cameron's commitment to the project.
Would that be enough to stem the bleeding going into the 2011 Assembly elections? I think its possible and theres a tendency to forget that the UUP actually had a decent result in 2015 bringing in 2 MPS. Being able to demonstrate influence in Westminster could possibly make middle class Unionists take another look, though being caught in the middle of the coalition would probably be a poison chalice.
Its equally possible that the DUP rebound in 2011 after the Iris Robinson scandal dies down and the eventual "Fleg" protests give them another shot in the arm, they probably turn their ire onto the Ulster Unionists as much as the Alliance.
I think any Conservative project in NI is probably doomed, the Tories just don't travel well buts its interesting to think what a successful UCUNF could mean.
But was there a chance for more success and could it revive the fortunes of the increasingly moribund Ulster Unionists? I'd think you need to keep Hermon onside though thats going to be very difficult as she had very deep misgivings about the alliance and would resign from the party to become an independent OTL. If Empey can take out Willie McCrea that would be a big scalp, and probably means he stays on which means they avoid Tom Elliots rather limp period as leader. If the Conservatives and Unionists can return an MP I think they would be assured some sort of cabinet position as a reward and to demonstrate Cameron's commitment to the project.
Would that be enough to stem the bleeding going into the 2011 Assembly elections? I think its possible and theres a tendency to forget that the UUP actually had a decent result in 2015 bringing in 2 MPS. Being able to demonstrate influence in Westminster could possibly make middle class Unionists take another look, though being caught in the middle of the coalition would probably be a poison chalice.
Its equally possible that the DUP rebound in 2011 after the Iris Robinson scandal dies down and the eventual "Fleg" protests give them another shot in the arm, they probably turn their ire onto the Ulster Unionists as much as the Alliance.
I think any Conservative project in NI is probably doomed, the Tories just don't travel well buts its interesting to think what a successful UCUNF could mean.