• Hi Guest!

    The costs of running this forum are covered by Sea Lion Press. If you'd like to help support the company and the forum, visit patreon.com/sealionpress

1992: The Algerian military waits

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
#1
What if the Algerian generals had decided to let the second round of the elections be held and let the FIS take power and only launch a coup once the FIS started its Islamist policies? The coup would have had more legitimacy both internally and externally. Would this timeline's Algerian Civil War have been smaller?
 

Time Enough

European Pollution Police Force
Pronouns
He/Him
#2
What if the Algerian generals had decided to let the second round of the elections be held and let the FIS take power and only launch a coup once the FIS started its Islamist policies? The coup would have had more legitimacy both internally and externally. Would this timeline's Algerian Civil War have been smaller?
Depends, the Military’s reaction seemed to be less ‘Oh no Islamists are taking over’ and more ‘Shit, we won’t be in charge anymore’ since the military had used the National Liberation Front as a way to control the country.

The coup was not only about riding the FIS, but also the Liberal Reformers who had lead to the elections in the first place (though they were just ousted from power instead of being arrested). I think even if the Military let the second lot of elections take place (doubtful) there would probably be a lot of vote rigging and ballot stuffings to get the NLF back into power. The Military didn’t want there hold on power shattered so the FIS would always have to lose in some way no matter what.
 

Ricardolindo

Well-known member
Location
Portugal
#3
Depends, the Military’s reaction seemed to be less ‘Oh no Islamists are taking over’ and more ‘Shit, we won’t be in charge anymore’ since the military had used the National Liberation Front as a way to control the country.
Why not both? Considering the Iranian precedent, the statements of the leaders of the FIS and the fact that there had already been a couple of clashes between the authorities and the Islamists, both fears were at play. I certainly don't believe there would have been a coup had a more moderate opposition party won.

The coup was not only about riding the FIS, but also the Liberal Reformers who had lead to the elections in the first place (though they were just ousted from power instead of being arrested). I think even if the Military let the second lot of elections take place (doubtful) there would probably be a lot of vote rigging and ballot stuffings to get the NLF back into power. The Military didn’t want there hold on power shattered so the FIS would always have to lose in some way no matter what.
The military only got rid of Chadli Bendjedid because he had led to the entire situation and was unwilling to cancel the second round of the elections.
Some liberal reformists, actually, supported the coup because they were afraid of the FIS.
I agree that the FIS would eventually have been overthrown. However, if the military only overthrew them once they implemented Islamist policies, they would probably have had more legitimacy, because people's fears would have been proven true.
 
Last edited:

Time Enough

European Pollution Police Force
Pronouns
He/Him
#4
Why not both? Considering the Iranian precedent, the statements of the leaders of the FIS and the fact that there had already been a couple of clashes between the authorities and the Islamists, both fears were at play. I certainly don't believe there would have been a coup had a more moderate opposition party won.
True, if per say the NLF worked with the Socialist Forces Front and Movements for Society and Peace more to secure some kind of settlement with them I think things would have been different. The FIS in that scenario would have deal with another Islamic Party making things a bit more complicated.
 

Nyvis

Token Marxist
Location
Paris
Pronouns
She/Her
#6
What if the Algerian generals had decided to let the second round of the elections be held and let the FIS take power and only launch a coup once the FIS started its Islamist policies? The coup would have had more legitimacy both internally and externally. Would this timeline's Algerian Civil War have been smaller?
Hmm, then it might look a lot more like Egypt, where Morsi proved himself to be incredibly awful very quickly and discredited himself with everyone not an Islamist, with the military waiting for popular discontent to bubble up before acting. You're probably right that the coup would have a lot more legitimacy then.

The question is how to get the military to wait when their power is threatened.