1978: if Aldo Moro had not been Assassinated (and the Historic Compromise survived)

[Aznavour]

Context: from the late 1960s to the 1980s Italy was gripped by a multi-sided political conflict which involved far-right terrorrists (some involved with Gladio, the CIA and Masonic lodge P2, others with the security services), Communist guerrillas with foreign support, the Italian Givernment and, eventually, the Mafia.

The natural party of government is the Christian Democracy, tasked with keeping the rising Communist Party out of power, chiefly via Coalitions with smaller parties. At least until Allende was overthrown in Chile, Italian Communists ditched Moscow for Eurocommunism and made a deal with Aldo Moro and the Christian Democrats, the Historic Compromise, by which they provided support for CD governments, an would eventually get a spot in government in return. Naturally, this was controversial for everyone, from the center Left to the hard Right to the far Left and the USA.

Then, in early 1978, Aldo Moro, one of the leaders of the Christian Democracy and architect of the Historic Compromise, was kidnapped and assassinated by the Red Brigades.

The kidnapping and murder of Moro drastically changed the politics of Italy.

The Historic Compromise between DC and PCI, one of Moro's main goals, was not liked by Italy's main international partners. On 23 March 1976 Aldo Moro, during his tenure as prime minister, took part in the G7 conference in Puerto Rico. When he asked his colleagues' opinions about the matter they replied to him that, if it materialized, the presence of the Communists in the executive would cause the loss of international support (including financial ones) for Italy.[128] At the previous general elections, DC had scored a 38%, followed by PCI with 34%.

Moro was considered a natural candidate for the next President of the Italian Republic, with the ensuing realization of the government alliance between the two parties. His assassination marked the definitive end of the Historic Compromise.[129]On 16 March 1978, the very day of the kidnapping of Moro, Andreotti's cabinet obtained the vote of confidence: it was voted for by all the Italian parties, with the exception of the Social Movement, the Liberal Party (the first a far right party, the second a centre-right one), theRadical Party and of Proletarian Democracy (the latter being left/far left formations).

The executive was formed exclusively by members from DC and could govern only with the indirect support of PCI (the so-called "non-no confidence").Between 1978 and 1979, Italy was involved with a series of events, after the assassination of Moro; on 15 June Giovanni Leone resigned from the presidency of the Republic, ending six months before his term as a result of harsh polemics and attacks on his person.

A few weeks later Sandro Pertini was elected with plebiscite vote. In January 1979, Andreotti's cabinet resigned: Pertini entrusted the task to Ugo La Malfa, but the attempt failed and there were new elections. At successive elections the DC remained stable while the PCI suffered a sharp setback: this result marked the end of the government of national solidarity and the possibility of entry of the Communists in the executive.The party, under the stronger influence of Ciriaco De Mita (from 1982 to 1989), Giulio Andreotti and Arnaldo Forlani (from 1989), remained a government party until 1994;

But what if the kidnapping had been avoided? How would the Years of Lead have continued under this different context?