Thanks to
@Sideways and
@Meadow for help on this. Please note I resisted going FULL National government and electoral reform.
2016-2017: Theresa May (Conservative)
Theresa May is generally regarded as the worst Prime Minister of all time or at least the worst Conservative Party leader. She took over as PM following David Cameron’s resignation which in turn followed a victory for the leave vote in the 2016 European Union membership referendum. Having triggered article 50 in March 2017 Theresa May took the surprising decision to call a general election to, as she put it “Strengthen her hand” in negotiations with Europe. She had a 20% lead in a lot of polls over Labour
This lead started to slowly erode in some polls but these were often considered to be outliers given the scale of the lead The Conservatives had
Then Grenfell happened.
A fire broke out in the 24 story Grenfell Tower block in North Kensington on the 17th May 2017 leading to 74 deaths and several hundred injuries. Theresa May’s response was seen as lacklustre and insincere, meeting with members of the Emergency Services but not residents directly effected. Labour doubled down on their criticism of the Government over Grenfell, saying how this was indicative of the Conservatives lack of empathy and care for the working class.
In the weeks leading from Grenfell to the election saw various polls predict both a rallying effect for May and a swing against the Tories towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats at alternating times and the country was left baffled as to what would actually happen.
On the night the results for the top four would be as follows
Labour: 321
Conservatives: 281
SNP: 20
Liberal Democrats: 9
2017-2020: Jeremy Corbyn (Labour Minority with Liberal Democrat S&C)
Several days would pass before a Supply & Confidence deal was passed between Labour and the Liberal Democrats, with less in depth agreements between Labour and both the SNP & Plaid Cymru with Labour refusing to back a second Independence referendum. None the less Corbyn would go to the palace and form a minority government.
The first Corbyn government was a creature of two halves. Domestically the government had the slimmest of majorities, not far from just enacting Lib Dem politics that were palatable to Labour. An extra one percent on income tax was introduced and NHS funding was increased (particularly mental health funding). Childcare provisions were expanded. Grants for poorest students were reintroduced but fees were not removed. Carer’s allowance was increased and the public sector pay freeze and cap was removed. Conservative tax cuts for the wealthy were reversed. Many in the media dubbed this government the “Not the Conservatives” government as all they could agree on was simply “not being the Conservatives” with very little beyond that. Many journalists commented that this was to Labour’s advantage as this “watered down” platform was much more palatable to Labour backbenchers who were much more towards the center than the Prime Minister.
While proposals for another referendum on electoral reform came to nothing. The one other thing that they managed to conclusively pass was reforming the House of Lords. The coalition-era proposals to introduce an elected house of lords was revised and more or less enacted with the first of the new mostly elected, much smaller Lords to be voted on at the next general election alongside a phase out of the least active members of the house of Lords. The main point of contention between the two parties being the allowances and pensions for Lords removed from their active roles.
2018: EU Deal Referendum 51% Deal 49% Remain
On Brexit there was a much more united front with the Lib Dems, Plaid, the SNP and even some Conservatives backing first the transitional deal and then the final deal in which Britain would stay in the Common Market, guarantee freedom of movement for EU citizens and protect workers rights. When put to a second referendum this deal passed with a fairly low turn out with many pro-leave voters less than enthusiastic about the deal. Conservatives under Jeremy Hunt were torn. They were in the position of backing leave but not really supporting the “Starmer Deal” as it was dubbed. Many Tories who backed leave in the second referendum pointing out the deal could be negotiated at a later date. When this later date was would continue to be a point of contention for the Tories throughout the government with the new Nigel Farage-led Brexit Party taking some votes from the Conservatives in the polls over Hunt’s reluctance to commit to overturning the EU-Britain Free trade Agreement at the next election.
2020-present: Jeremy Corbyn (Labour with Liberal Democrat and (some) Conservative S&C... Sort of)
When it came to dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic the parties more or less came together. Despite calls for a full National Emergency government (something the Conservative back benches immediately screamed about) the Labour minority government reached out to the Conservatives to push through some basic legislation over lockdowns Furlough pay, fines for non compliance of lockdown and supporting businesses, isolation of people arriving in Britain and more radical proposals such as a temporary universal basic income floundered. Despite this, the “Covid Compact” would hold and the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition would hold regular meetings throughout 2020 and key matters would be supported across the aisle even if Tory backbenchers were much less compliant.
Britain would go into Lockdown on 16th March with the Prime Minister and his Health Secretary Jon Ashworth giving regular press conferences about the virus. The Prime Minister would fall ill with the virus in November 2020, requiring hospitalisation.
It was generally accepted that the Minority government would end in 2020 once the final EU deal had been passed but this was postponed due to COVID-19. The election is scheduled for May 2021, as is the Welsh Assembly election, the Scottish Parliament election and the first election for the House of Lords.
Polls currently put Labour slightly in the lead with Conservative success hinging on how well the Brexit Party do. Meanwhile Layla Moran's Lib Dems seek to make gains at the Conservative's expense in pro-remain seats. Corbyn and Hunt face off in a mostly virtual House of Commons with every one of Britain's 75,000 deaths being laid at the PM's feet while Corbyn looks across to the opposition benches repeating the two mantras "You voted for this too" and "What would you have done differently?"
There's a high chance that Britain will get 5 more years of socialist and centrist meeting together in the middle, somewhere in the soft left, just outside the EU.